---
conjecture: r2-edh-b1-23
family: grok
model: "Grok 4.5 expert (chat paste-back via orchestrator window)"
received: 2026-08-06
template: PROMPT_TEMPLATE_v1.md sha256 4344aabfacfe88362c56d89b6c89d594a7bf3a221e18a16b0e351482447e512f
rivals_parsed: 2
note: "Terminological-convention rival is the sharpest challenge to the single-exemplar Cisalpine bet — its uniform-retypology test is partially computable via free-text descriptions."
---

{
"rivals": [
{
"mechanism": "Modern Italian scholarly and cataloguing conventions applied to Cisalpine material systematically label a wider range of upright funerary monuments as 'stele' than is done in other regional traditions; because Aemilia and Transpadana share the same modern epigraphic literature and source corpora, both display elevated stele shares that are terminological rather than evidence of an ancient shared funerary practice.",
"why_it_explains_the_same_evidence": "The shared modern labeling practice is already embedded in the fixed EDH records for these two neighboring provinces, one of which fell in the training half and the other in the holdout half, producing the observed elevated shares (43.81 percent and 21.38 percent) without any requirement for an ancient regional tradition.",
"named_confounds": [
"classification artifact in monument-type terminology",
"regional scholarly convention for type labels",
"data-entry practice varying by source corpus and national tradition"
],
"discriminating_test": {
"description": "Re-classify the monument-typed rows of both Aemilia and Transpadana under a single, externally defined typology that ignores the original EDH 'stele' labels (using free-text descriptions, measurements, or linked images where available), then recompute the share of upright slab-like monuments; also apply the same re-classification to a control set of non-Cisalpine provinces.",
"computable_on_held_data": true,
"what_result_favors_rival": "If the elevated share disappears or becomes statistically indistinguishable from non-Cisalpine controls once a uniform typology is imposed, the result favours modern terminological convention over an ancient shared funerary tradition."
}
},
{
"mechanism": "Shared geological, climatic and post-depositional conditions in the Po-valley / Cisalpine zone preferentially preserve upright steles relative to other monument forms (or preferentially destroy altars and sarcophagi), so the recovered and catalogued assemblages of both Aemilia and Transpadana show elevated stele shares that reflect differential survival rather than a cultural preference for erecting steles.",
"why_it_explains_the_same_evidence": "The two provinces occupy contiguous terrain with similar preservation regimes; the fixed catalogue therefore records high stele percentages for both, one appearing in the training alphabetical half and the other in the holdout half.",
"named_confounds": [
"differential survival and preservation bias by monument form",
"regional geological and depositional conditions affecting recoverability",
"material durability differences in the Cisalpine zone"
],
"discriminating_test": {
"description": "Compare stele shares in Aemilia and Transpadana against those of other provinces that share similar geology or burial environments but lie outside the proposed Cisalpine cultural zone, and against provinces inside the zone that have different local lithologies; also examine whether stele frequency tracks independent measures of stone preservation quality.",
"computable_on_held_data": false,
"what_result_favors_rival": "If elevated stele shares align more closely with geological or preservation variables than with the boundaries of the proposed cultural tradition, the result favours differential survival over an ancient regional funerary practice."
}
}
],
"no_viable_rival": false,
"notes": ""
}
