---
conjecture: r3-b1-35
family: grok
model: "Grok 4.5 expert (chat paste-back via orchestrator window)"
received: 2026-08-06
template: PROMPT_TEMPLATE_v1.md sha256 4344aabfacfe88362c56d89b6c89d594a7bf3a221e18a16b0e351482447e512f
rivals_parsed: 2
---

{
"rivals": [
{
"mechanism": "The underlying records in the NAMAMI portal database contain no date or date_precision metadata for holdings in any of the complete states because contributing institutions uniformly omit chronological information from their data feeds; the list-page harvest therefore records 'unknown' on every row regardless of whether a date column is present in the schema.",
"why_it_explains_the_same_evidence": "If date fields are simply absent from the source data for every training and holdout state, any enumeration of list pages will show exact 100% 'unknown' (zero exceptions across 4.22 M records and all nine holdouts), matching the observed pattern without requiring a parsing omission specific to the list-page method.",
"named_confounds": ["source-institution cataloguing practice", "data-entry completeness in portal database feeds"],
"discriminating_test": {
"description": "Access individual manuscript detail pages or any richer per-record view (or official bulk metadata export) for stratified samples from multiple training and holdout states and inspect whether a date or date_precision field is populated. Measure the non-unknown fraction in those detailed records versus the list harvests.",
"computable_on_held_data": false,
"what_result_favors_rival": "If dates remain absent even in detail views and official exports, this favors the rival (true data absence); if dates appear in details but are missing from list enumerations, this favors the proposed list-page parsing omission."
}
},
{
"mechanism": "A portal-wide technical or policy configuration suppresses or blanks the date_precision field for all state-faceted list outputs, independent of whether the enumeration schema is designed to parse a date column.",
"why_it_explains_the_same_evidence": "Uniform suppression applied at the portal level to every state's list view would force exact 100% 'unknown' in the 11 training states and the 9 holdout states, reproducing the zero-exception result while the small number of non-unknown records observed outside these states remains consistent with a different (non-suppressed) pathway.",
"named_confounds": ["portal software configuration artifact", "administrative data-suppression policy"],
"discriminating_test": {
"description": "Compare the harvested list-page date_precision values against any official NAMAMI API, bulk download, or non-list interface that exposes the same records; compute the non-unknown fraction in those alternative access methods for the same states.",
"computable_on_held_data": false,
"what_result_favors_rival": "If official alternative interfaces also show 100% 'unknown' across the same states, this favors the rival (portal-wide suppression); if they show any non-unknown values, this favors the proposed list-page parsing omission."
}
}
],
"no_viable_rival": false,
"notes": ""
}
