---
conjecture: r2-edh-b1-24
family: grok
model: "Grok 4.5 expert (chat paste-back via orchestrator window)"
received: 2026-08-06
template: PROMPT_TEMPLATE_v1.md sha256 4344aabfacfe88362c56d89b6c89d594a7bf3a221e18a16b0e351482447e512f
rivals_parsed: 2
note: "En-dashes as unicode escapes. r2's width-modality histogram (template-value spikes) is a neat fully-computable test; r1's undated-share companion overlaps with 04's dated-share data."
---

{
"rivals": [
{
"mechanism": "Only inscriptions whose chronological indicators support a moderately constrained window are assigned range-precision dates in EDH; pieces with very wide possible spans are left undated or given other treatments and therefore excluded from the range-precision denominator, so the average width among the remaining rows is forced into the 20\u2013250-year band by construction of the eligible set.",
"why_it_explains_the_same_evidence": "This filtering of what receives a range-precision date is a uniform cataloguing practice applied across the fixed EDH collection, producing average widths inside the claimed band for every province that meets the 30-row threshold in both the alphabetical training half and the holdout half.",
"named_confounds": [
"selection of what receives a range-precision date",
"unit-of-count / eligibility effect for range-precision rows",
"dating-assignment practice that avoids extreme widths"
],
"discriminating_test": {
"description": "Recompute average range widths after treating undated rows as having maximal possible Roman-period spans (or after including exact-precision rows with zero width) and also report the share of undated versus range-precision rows per province.",
"computable_on_held_data": true,
"what_result_favors_rival": "If including the previously excluded rows pushes multiple provincial averages outside the 20\u2013250-year band, the result favours the selection/filter mechanism over a genuine convention-driven resolution band."
}
},
{
"mechanism": "The EDH data-entry interface, schema defaults, and common encoding templates favour a restricted set of range widths (typical emperor-reign lengths, half-centuries, or fixed decade intervals), so editors rarely record averages that fall outside the 20\u2013250-year band; the observed uniformity is therefore an artifact of the cataloguing system rather than independent scholarly assessment of historical plausibility.",
"why_it_explains_the_same_evidence": "The same interface and template constraints operate on every record in the fixed catalogue, keeping provincial averages inside the band for all eligible provinces in both alphabetical halves.",
"named_confounds": [
"data-entry interface and schema defaults",
"digitization artifact in range encoding",
"cataloguing-system constraints on recorded range widths"
],
"discriminating_test": {
"description": "Analyse the full distribution of individual range widths (not just provincial averages) for modality at common template values (e.g., exact multiples of 10, 25, 50 or known reign lengths); re-date a stratified sample of the same rows under a free-form scholarly protocol that ignores EDH templates and recompute the averages.",
"computable_on_held_data": true,
"what_result_favors_rival": "If the width distribution is strongly multimodal at template intervals and free-form re-dating produces averages that fall outside 20\u2013250 years for several provinces, the result favours system/encoding constraints over independent convention-driven resolution."
}
}
],
"no_viable_rival": false,
"notes": ""
}
