---
conjecture: r2-edh-b1-24
family: codex
model: "gpt-5.6-sol (codex-cli 0.144.0-alpha.4, ChatGPT-subscription auth)"
model_stamp_corrected: "2026-08-07 — archives were first written stamped gpt-5.5 by a runner bug (the stamper read config.toml's default instead of the -m flag actually passed). The calls themselves ran on gpt-5.6-sol throughout; only the label was wrong. Corrected in place, noted here rather than silently."
received: 2026-08-07
template: PROMPT_TEMPLATE_v1.md sha256 4344aabfacfe88362c56d89b6c89d594a7bf3a221e18a16b0e351482447e512f
rivals_parsed: 3
validation: VALID
---

{
  "rivals": [
    {
      "mechanism": "The band may be created by conditioning on EDH's range-precision category. Exact dates are excluded, while the least dateable inscriptions may be recorded as undated, open-ended, or nonnumeric rather than as finite ranges, leaving only an intermediate-uncertainty subset.",
      "why_it_explains_the_same_evidence": "The same precision-classification rule operates in both alphabetical halves and every province. Removing both zero-width exact dates and the broadest or unbounded uncertainties would naturally keep eligible provincial averages between 20 and 250 years, including the training range of 26.63 to 231.37 years and the held-out minimum of 71.20 years, without requiring province-invariant scholarly resolution.",
      "named_confounds": [
        "conditioning on the range-precision field",
        "informative exclusion of undated or open-ended records",
        "precision-dependent missingness"
      ],
      "discriminating_test": {
        "description": "Retrieve every inscription in each province, including exact, vague, open-ended, and undated records. Independently code any raw dating expression that implies finite bounds without using EDH's precision label, then recompute provincial averages after adding those independently identified ranges. Also test whether assignment to range precision falls sharply for independently estimated widths above 250 years.",
        "computable_on_held_data": true,
        "what_result_favors_rival": "The rival is favored if broad but logically finite dates are systematically routed outside the range category and their inclusion pushes provincial averages above 250 years or makes the averages strongly dependent on the province's exclusion rate."
      }
    },
    {
      "mechanism": "A centralized EDH ingestion or display pipeline may quantize, replace, or truncate heterogeneous source datings into stock endpoints and fallback intervals. The measured widths would then primarily reflect database transformation rules rather than historians independently selecting plausible spans.",
      "why_it_explains_the_same_evidence": "All training and held-out provinces were processed within the same fixed catalogue, so a global transformation would cross the alphabetical split automatically. A limited repertoire of generated intervals could keep all province-level means within the registered band and reproduce both the observed training extrema and the held-out survival.",
      "named_confounds": [
        "date-field normalization",
        "default interval substitution",
        "endpoint quantization or truncation",
        "shared ingestion software"
      ],
      "discriminating_test": {
        "description": "For a stratified sample of records, compare EDH's resolved start and end years with the dating expressions in cited editions or pre-normalization records. Estimate whether discrepancies and interval widths are predicted by import batch, interface version, or stock endpoint templates after controlling for the stated dating evidence.",
        "computable_on_held_data": false,
        "what_result_favors_rival": "The rival is favored if source datings contain materially narrower, broader, or open-ended uncertainties that EDH systematically converts to a small set of standard intervals, especially if conversion patterns track ingestion batches rather than historical dating evidence."
      }
    },
    {
      "mechanism": "Province means may be stabilized by pseudoreplication and composition: large publication corpora, sites, or monument classes contribute many inscriptions carrying the same copied or jointly assigned date range. The result would be a count-weighted property of catalogue composition, not a province-independent resolution process.",
      "why_it_explains_the_same_evidence": "The reported sample sizes count inscriptions, not independent dating decisions. If the same high-volume corpus structures recur across both halves of EDH, their replicated intervals can pull every provincial mean into the band; different corpus mixtures can also produce the 26.63-to-231.37-year training spread and the 71.20-year held-out minimum.",
      "named_confounds": [
        "pseudoreplication of shared dating decisions",
        "publication-corpus clustering",
        "site or monument-class composition",
        "inscription-count weighting"
      ],
      "discriminating_test": {
        "description": "Group records by cited publication corpus, findspot or archaeological assemblage, object class, and identical date interval. Recompute each provincial mean after collapsing likely shared dating decisions to one observation and, separately, after giving equal weight to corpora or sites rather than inscriptions.",
        "computable_on_held_data": true,
        "what_result_favors_rival": "The rival is favored if a few clusters account for most eligible rows and cluster-balanced means change substantially or leave the 20-to-250-year band, while the original inscription-weighted means remain inside it."
      }
    }
  ],
  "no_viable_rival": false,
  "notes": ""
}
