---
conjecture: r3-b1-34
family: grok
model: "Grok 4.5 expert (chat paste-back via orchestrator window)"
received: 2026-08-06
template: PROMPT_TEMPLATE_v1.md sha256 4344aabfacfe88362c56d89b6c89d594a7bf3a221e18a16b0e351482447e512f
rivals_parsed: 2
---

{
"rivals": [
{
"mechanism": "The scope-integrity flag is set by a hard-coded constant or unconditional post-processing rule that forces every harvested record to the holdings value, so the observed 100% correctness is an artifact of the pipeline construction rather than evidence that a holdings-versus-origin decision was correctly applied on a per-record basis.",
"why_it_explains_the_same_evidence": "A forced constant would produce exactly zero exceptions across all 4.22 M training records and all nine holdout states regardless of the content of any source field; the perfect pass is then guaranteed by construction and does not verify correct bookkeeping logic.",
"named_confounds": ["harvest or digitization artifact", "pipeline post-processing rule", "unit-of-count or flag-assignment construction"],
"discriminating_test": {
"description": "Inspect the harvest code or intermediate data products for the presence of any conditional logic that reads a source field and sets the scope flag accordingly; also attempt to locate or inject a synthetic record that carries an explicit origin/production indicator and re-run the harvest. Measure whether the flag ever takes a non-holdings value under any condition.",
"computable_on_held_data": false,
"what_result_favors_rival": "If no conditional logic exists and the flag remains holdings even for synthetic origin-marked records, this favors the rival (hard-coded constant); if conditional logic is present and correctly switches the flag for origin-marked cases, this favors the proposed correct-application mechanism."
}
},
{
"mechanism": "The underlying NAMAMI portal data contain no fields or values that the harvest could interpret as origin/production indicators, so the scope flag has no opportunity to be set incorrectly; the zero-exception result is a property of the source lacking the alternative category rather than of correct bookkeeping.",
"why_it_explains_the_same_evidence": "If the source never supplies an origin signal, every record will receive the holdings flag by default, producing the observed perfect training and holdout integrity without any active decision process having been tested.",
"named_confounds": ["source-data completeness for origin indicators", "absence of alternative category in portal schema", "selection effects in what the portal exposes"],
"discriminating_test": {
"description": "Search the full set of harvested fields (and any richer detail-page or export views) for any column, token, or free-text pattern that could be read as an origin or production statement; also compare against external descriptions of the same manuscripts that explicitly distinguish holding institution from place of production. Measure the frequency of such signals.",
"computable_on_held_data": true,
"what_result_favors_rival": "If no origin/production signals exist anywhere in the portal data, this favors the rival (source lacks the alternative); if clear origin signals are present yet the flag remains uniformly holdings, this favors the proposed correct-application mechanism (or raises a different integrity concern)."
}
}
],
"no_viable_rival": false,
"notes": ""
}
