# r3-b1-18

**Claim (as registered):** At least one small holdout single-city union territory will show a top-1 holding-institution share exceeding the highest share observed among the large, complete, multi-city training states (25.49%) -- i.e. smaller single-city administrative units are predicted to be MORE institutionally concentrated than any large multi-city state.

**Proposed mechanism:** Proposed mechanism: a single-city administrative unit has a structurally narrower institutional landscape (fewer independent museums/archives/departments that could separately collect manuscripts) than a large multi-city state, so holdings concentrate more heavily in whichever institutions do exist there.

**Scope:** Source: NAMAMI (India), a state-facetted manuscript-holdings portal (holdings, not origin -- every record is held-by, not produced-by, the state). Training: 11 states with a complete portal walk (~4.22M records: Bihar, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal). Holdout: 9 more states/union territories walked to completion after this claim was fixed (Jammu & Kashmir, Assam, Haryana, Delhi, Manipur, Puducherry, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Jharkhand), each landed as a complete, reconciled count before testing. All data comes from one portal, so survival across states shows stability within this portal's own cataloguing practice, not independently of it. No training-side test of this claim is possible (all 11 complete training states are large multi-city states); training supplies only the 25.49% threshold to beat.

**Training-side evidence:** Threshold: the highest top-1 institution share among the 11 complete training states is 25.49%.

**Holdout test and outcome:** Tested at the first single-city union territory to land: its top-1 institution held 51.47% of all its records (more than double the threshold). A second single-city union territory landed later and confirmed even more strongly: its single largest institution held 100.0% of all records in that territory (every record in the territory is held by one institution).

**Status:** Confirmed on both single-city union territories tested.
