---
conjecture: r2-edh-b1-14
family: grok
model: "Grok 4.5 expert (chat paste-back via orchestrator window)"
received: 2026-08-06
template: PROMPT_TEMPLATE_v1.md sha256 4344aabfacfe88362c56d89b6c89d594a7bf3a221e18a16b0e351482447e512f
rivals_parsed: 2
note: "En-dashes as unicode escapes. The production-vs-preservation rival pair reproduces the epigraphic-habit literature's own standing debate — r2 partially computable via date_precision restriction."
---

{
"rivals": [
{
"mechanism": "Differential survival and post-depositional destruction concentrated recoverable, dateable inscriptions in the 1st\u20132nd centuries AD: stones of that era were less frequently reused for later building, suffered less systematic destruction, or were deposited in contexts that favored long-term preservation, while later inscriptions were more often recycled or eroded, creating an apparent production peak that is actually a preservation peak.",
"why_it_explains_the_same_evidence": "Because the survival bias operates empire-wide on the dated subset of the fixed EDH catalogue, every province that meets the 150-row threshold will display its modal century in the 1st or 2nd century AD in both the alphabetical training half and the holdout half; the pre-registered Mesopotamian exception escapes the pattern because its brief Roman phases fall after the high-survival window.",
"named_confounds": [
"differential survival and preservation bias by century",
"reuse and destruction of later stones",
"post-depositional selection of recoverable material"
],
"discriminating_test": {
"description": "Restrict analysis to the subset of EDH inscriptions (or an external corpus of the same provinces) whose dates rest solely on sealed stratigraphic or archaeological context rather than epigraphic formulae or style; recompute the modal century for each eligible province and compare against the unrestricted peak.",
"computable_on_held_data": false,
"what_result_favors_rival": "If the stratigraphically dated subsample shows modal centuries that systematically shift later than the 1st\u20132nd century or become more uniformly distributed, the result favors preservation bias over a genuine ancient production peak."
}
},
{
"mechanism": "Modern scholarly publication and cataloguing practices preferentially recover, date, and enter inscriptions that belong to the classic early-to-mid Principate: these pieces are better studied, carry more familiar dating formulae, and align with traditional research priorities, so the EDH dated-row totals artificially peak in the 1st\u20132nd centuries even if actual ancient erection rates were flatter or differently timed.",
"why_it_explains_the_same_evidence": "The prioritization is a property of the shared, fixed catalogue rather than of any particular alphabetical half; therefore every province meeting the minimum support threshold exhibits a 1st- or 2nd-century mode in both training and holdout, while the late-annexed Mesopotamian province remains exempt because fewer classic-period inscriptions exist to be preferentially catalogued.",
"named_confounds": [
"selection effects in what got published and catalogued",
"scholarly-interest bias favoring early Principate material",
"data-entry practice that more readily assigns precise dates to well-studied early inscriptions"
],
"discriminating_test": {
"description": "Within the same EDH catalogue, recompute modal centuries after restricting to inscriptions whose dating metadata indicate only paleographic, contextual, or non-formulaic criteria (or after equalizing the precision of all date assignments); alternatively compare EDH peaks against the century distribution obtained from a modern, total-recovery excavation series or museum inventory for the same provinces that does not inherit traditional publication filters.",
"computable_on_held_data": true,
"what_result_favors_rival": "If the restricted or external distributions lose the uniform 1st\u20132nd-century mode while the unrestricted EDH data retain it, the result favors cataloguing and scholarly-selection bias over the ancient epigraphic-habit production peak."
}
}
],
"no_viable_rival": false,
"notes": ""
}
