# r3-b1-32

**Claim (as registered):** The single most common tradition-routing decision pathway (basis value) accounts for at least 35% of records in every complete state -- i.e. routing decisions are never fragmented across three or more roughly-equal-sized pathways within one state.

**Proposed mechanism:** A floor on how fragmented the routing instrument's basis assignment can get, calibrated tightly (only about 5.6 percentage points above the training-side minimum) because that minimum-training state already shows real fragmentation (several of the instrument's six possible pathways each carrying tens of thousands of records there).

**Scope:** Source: NAMAMI (India), a state-facetted manuscript-holdings portal (holdings, not origin -- every record is held-by, not produced-by, the state). Training: 11 states with a complete portal walk (~4.22M records: Bihar, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal). Holdout: 9 more states/union territories walked to completion after this claim was fixed (Jammu & Kashmir, Assam, Haryana, Delhi, Manipur, Puducherry, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Jharkhand), each landed as a complete, reconciled count before testing. All data comes from one portal, so survival across states shows stability within this portal's own cataloguing practice, not independently of it.

**Training-side evidence:** Minimum 40.62% (the most fragmented training state, on its plurality pathway); every other complete state's plurality pathway carries a much higher share (77% up to 99%).

**Holdout test and outcome:** Tested across all nine India holdout states/UTs; every state's plurality-pathway share stayed above the 35% floor.

**Status:** Survived every tested holdout state.
