---
conjecture: r3-b1-07
family: grok
model: "Grok 4.5 expert (chat paste-back via orchestrator window)"
received: 2026-08-06
template: PROMPT_TEMPLATE_v1.md sha256 4344aabfacfe88362c56d89b6c89d594a7bf3a221e18a16b0e351482447e512f
rivals_parsed: 2
---

{
  "rivals": [
    {
      "mechanism": "The observed 5.38% multi-attestation rate is an artifact of incomplete or selective recording in the scribe-attestation layer itself: cataloguers systematically enter only the primary or most prominent scribe for most manuscripts and record additional hands only when they are unusually clear or when a special project focuses on them, producing a stable low rate that reflects recording practice rather than true multi-scribe frequency.",
      "why_it_explains_the_same_evidence": "As long as the same selective recording conventions continue, the share of records with ordinal >=2 will remain inside the [3%,9%] band as the corpus grows, matching the training distribution (318/5912 at ordinal 2, decaying thereafter) without any real base rate of collaborative production being stable.",
      "named_confounds": ["cataloguing practice for secondary scribe hands", "data-entry completeness in the attestation layer"],
      "discriminating_test": {
        "description": "For a random sample of manuscripts that currently have only a single attestation, obtain independent paleographic or codicological descriptions (or high-resolution images) and count how many distinct hands are actually present; compute the true multi-hand rate in that sample and compare it with the catalogue's recorded multi-attestation rate.",
        "computable_on_held_data": false,
        "what_result_favors_rival": "If independent examination reveals a substantially higher multi-hand frequency than the catalogue's 5.38%, this favors the rival (under-recording); if the independent multi-hand rate closely matches the catalogue rate, this favors the proposed real-base-rate mechanism."
      }
    },
    {
      "mechanism": "Manuscripts that receive any scribe-attestation work at all are a non-random, higher-scrutiny subset; the multi-attestation share is therefore a property of which volumes cataloguers choose to examine in detail, not a property of the underlying production base rate, and that selection threshold has remained stable.",
      "why_it_explains_the_same_evidence": "If the project consistently applies the same depth-of-scrutiny filter when deciding which manuscripts get scribe rows, the conditional rate of second-and-higher attestations among those selected will stay inside the registered band as more manuscripts are added under the same filter, reproducing the training pattern.",
      "named_confounds": ["selection effects in which manuscripts receive detailed scribe cataloguing", "cataloguing-depth practice"],
      "discriminating_test": {
        "description": "Compare the multi-attestation rate among manuscripts that entered the catalogue in different chronological waves or under different funding/project phases (if timestamps or project tags exist); also compare against any external sample of the same corpus that was catalogued for scribes by an independent team. Measure whether the rate stays constant across waves or shifts with project intensity.",
        "computable_on_held_data": true,
        "what_result_favors_rival": "If multi-attestation rates differ significantly across cataloguing waves or external teams while the overall rate remains inside the band only because of stable selection, this favors the rival; if rates are consistent across independent efforts, this favors the proposed stable production base-rate."
      }
    }
  ],
  "no_viable_rival": false,
  "notes": ""
}
