---
conjecture: r3-b1-07
family: codex
model: "gpt-5.6-sol (codex-cli 0.144.0-alpha.4, ChatGPT-subscription auth)"
model_stamp_corrected: "2026-08-07 — archives were first written stamped gpt-5.5 by a runner bug (the stamper read config.toml's default instead of the -m flag actually passed). The calls themselves ran on gpt-5.6-sol throughout; only the label was wrong. Corrected in place, noted here rather than silently."
received: 2026-08-07
template: PROMPT_TEMPLATE_v1.md sha256 4344aabfacfe88362c56d89b6c89d594a7bf3a221e18a16b0e351482447e512f
rivals_parsed: 3
validation: VALID
---

{
  "rivals": [
    {
      "mechanism": "Multiple attestation events may often be repeated mentions of the same scribe within one manuscript, such as separate colophons, roles, or text sections, rather than evidence of multiple scribes. A stable prevalence of multi-text or multi-colophon manuscripts would therefore create a stable event-multiplicity rate.",
      "why_it_explains_the_same_evidence": "Because the rows count events rather than deduplicated identities, repeated mentions naturally produce many records with one event, fewer with two, and a rapidly thinning tail through ordinal 11. A stable distribution of colophons or text sections could preserve the registered 3%-9% rate during future growth without any stable base rate of collaborative production; no held-out outcome currently distinguishes these explanations.",
      "named_confounds": [
        "within-record non-deduplication of scribe identity",
        "event-count versus person-or-hand-count mismatch",
        "repeated colophons or role mentions by one scribe"
      ],
      "discriminating_test": {
        "description": "Normalize scribe names and identifiers within each manuscript, supplementing them with hand identifiers where available, and recompute the share having at least two distinct scribes or hands. Also measure how often ordinal-2-and-higher rows repeat the ordinal-1 identity.",
        "computable_on_held_data": true,
        "what_result_favors_rival": "The rival is favored if a large majority of nominally multi-attested records collapse to one distinct identity or hand, especially if the long ordinal tail consists mainly of repeated occurrences of that identity. The proposed mechanism predicts that most such records should retain at least two distinct scribes or hands."
      }
    },
    {
      "mechanism": "The catalogue may aggregate composite codices, bound collections, or several codicological units under one manuscript record. Multiple attestations would then identify scribes of separate component units rather than collaborators in producing a single manuscript unit.",
      "why_it_explains_the_same_evidence": "If most records contain one unit and progressively fewer contain two, three, or more units, record-level attestation counts would show exactly the observed steeply decaying ordinal distribution. A stable proportion of composite records would also keep the aggregate rate inside the registered band during future growth, despite the absence of a stable collaboration rate.",
      "named_confounds": [
        "catalogue-record aggregation",
        "composite-codex selection",
        "manuscript-record versus codicological-unit mismatch"
      ],
      "discriminating_test": {
        "description": "Obtain folio-range or codicological-unit assignments for every attestation, split composite records into physical production units, and recompute multi-scribe prevalence per unit. Test whether different scribes occur on overlapping production units or only on separate components.",
        "computable_on_held_data": false,
        "what_result_favors_rival": "The rival is favored if multi-attestation is strongly concentrated in composite records and the rate falls near zero after splitting them, with different scribes confined to non-overlapping components. Genuine collaborative production predicts substantial multiplicity within individual production units."
      }
    },
    {
      "mechanism": "A stable cataloguing workflow may require one primary scribe entry while making additional attestations optional or dependent on contributor effort. The pooled rate could consequently be a stable mixture of sparsely and intensively catalogued collections rather than a historical production base rate.",
      "why_it_explains_the_same_evidence": "Mandatory primary entry plus selective secondary entry yields a dominant ordinal-1 count, a much smaller ordinal-2 count, and a thin higher-ordinal tail from intensively described records. If the proportions of contributors or ingest batches remain stable, the pooled percentage can remain within 3%-9%, so even a future pass would not separate workflow stability from historical stability.",
      "named_confounds": [
        "optional-field under-ascertainment",
        "cataloguer or contributor heterogeneity",
        "stable mixture of ingest batches",
        "retrospective backfilling of secondary attestations"
      ],
      "discriminating_test": {
        "description": "Using catalogue snapshots and administrative metadata, estimate multi-attestation rates by contributor, collection, ingest batch, and cataloguing interface; separately count secondary rows added later to pre-existing records. Compare strata matched on period, genre, and provenance where those fields exist.",
        "computable_on_held_data": true,
        "what_result_favors_rival": "The rival is favored if rates show large discontinuities at contributor, batch, or interface boundaries, or if secondary attestations are disproportionately later backfills, while the pooled rate remains stable only because stratum weights are stable. The proposed mechanism predicts less dependence on cataloguing-administration boundaries after relevant manuscript characteristics are controlled."
      }
    }
  ],
  "no_viable_rival": false,
  "notes": "No held-out test has been run, so the present comparison is limited to the training pattern and discriminating predictions for future source growth or re-analysis."
}
