# Popper Engine V2 — rung-3 REGISTRATION of record, batch r3-b1

**Registered:** 2026-08-04. **The git commit carrying this file is the registration
timestamp**; the commit message carries this file's SHA-256. Everything below is
frozen by that commit: statements, scopes, kill-conditions, thresholds, instruments,
holdout. Parent protocol: `docs/DESIGN_POPPER_V2_RUNG3_REGISTRATION_20260804.md`.
Programme: `docs/GOAL_POPPER_ENGINE_V2_PROGRAMME_20260804.md` §7.

## 1. Batch block

- **Batch:** `r3-b1`. **Minted: 40** (disclosed; survivors are read against 40, not
  against the registered count). Minted files (committed 405f5da, timestamped
  BEFORE pinning): `popper_v2_rung3_minted_1..4.json` + README.
- **Triage (Fable, 405f5da):** 2 killed at compile — r3-b1-22 (training-set
  contradiction as written), r3-b1-39 (compound of registered metrics) — reasons in
  `popper_v2_rung3_triage_20260804.md`, whose standing rulings 1–7 are incorporated
  here by reference. **Registered: 38.**
- **Pinning (lane, this commit):** 38/38 PASS at compile, zero outside-band values.
  Frozen instruments + precise training values + band checks:
  `popper_v2_rung3_pinned_instruments_a.json` (r3-b1-01..14), `_b.json`
  (15..28 excl. 22), `_c.json` (29..40 excl. 39); narrative:
  `popper_v2_rung3_pinning_report.md`. The `frozen_query` field of each entry is
  the exact text validation runs verbatim, one holdout state at a time.
- **Corpus snapshot:** 56 landed sources, ~6.6M ManuscriptRecord rows at minting
  orientation (2026-08-04); NAMAMI source_id 51, slug `namami-kritisampada`.
  Training = the 11 complete states (ids 5, 14, 17, 18, 20, 21, 26, 29, 31, 33, 35;
  N per `popper_v2_rung3_minted_2.json` roster; ~4.22M rows). The census walk
  continues during and after this registration on non-holdout states; that motion
  never contaminates the holdout (walk states are excluded on landing-before-
  registration grounds, below).

## 2. Named holdout (decides discovery-grade validation)

Post-cutoff **sources** in the strong V1 §IV sense — not on our disk beyond probe
grain at registration, in no training scrape:

- **Jammu & Kashmir** (state_id 15, site total 87,755; landed 60 probe rows) — the
  batch's highest-signal state: r3-b1-19 (Ladakh/Tibetan, escape clause pinned to
  J&K only) and r3-b1-38 (Persian heritage, directional non-killing sub-test).
- **Assam** (state_id 4, site total 77,657; landed 60) — r3-b1-28's decisive
  Tibeto-Burman directional test.
- **Tail states landing after this commit**, currently at probe/partial grain:
  Delhi (10), Puducherry (27), Haryana (13), Jharkhand (16), Manipur (22),
  Punjab (28), Uttarakhand (34), Telangana (39), Tripura (32), Chhattisgarh (7).
  Site totals recorded from the portal at validation time; a tail state decides a
  conjecture only per the decision floor below.

**Excluded from the batch entirely** (neither training nor holdout): Andhra Pradesh
(landed complete pre-registration), Gujarat (mid-walk at triage), Chandigarh
(11,581 rows pre-landed), and the three 2026-07-27 detail-enrichment pilot states
Sikkim, Goa, Andaman & Nicobar (landed AND phase-2-enriched). Outcomes on excluded
states may be reported as exploratory/replication-grade context only, never as
registered validation.

**Decision floor (triage ruling 6):** a state decides a conjecture only when its
walk is COMPLETE and reconciled (band ≥98.9% against the site total); probe-grade
rows never decide; per-conjecture N-clauses (e.g. N>1000) apply on top.

**Label rule:** validation outcomes on the named holdout are **discovery-grade**;
anything else is replication/exploratory and says so.

## 3. Amendments fixed at registration

1. **Enrichment-exclusion filter on r3-b1-01, -08, -35, -40.** The pinning pass
   proved the source-wide extent_leaves (0.268%) and century-precision rows (210 =
   Sikkim 207 + Goa 3) are 100% concentrated outside training — and Sikkim/Goa/A&N
   are exactly the 2026-07-27 detail-enrichment pilot (209+171+13=393). These four
   conjectures are claims about the LIST-PAGE ENUMERATION method; our own phase-2
   detail-enrichment populates the very fields they measure. Their instruments
   therefore evaluate only enumeration-grain rows:
   `AND (raw->>'namami_detail_fetched') IS DISTINCT FROM 'true'` — added to the
   frozen queries now, before any holdout observation exists. A future enrichment
   pass over a holdout state cannot fire these kills spuriously; a holdout state
   whose ENUMERATION rows carry dates/extents still kills them exactly as claimed.
2. **r3-b1-19 threshold provenance:** frozen at 53,727 as minted (standing ruling
   1); the instrument's own tradition-filtered training value is 53,697 (0.056%
   lower) — recorded; the frozen ceiling is marginally the more permissive, never
   less.
3. **r3-b1-20 corrected training values:** Maharashtra 7, Madhya Pradesh 8,
   Rajasthan 8, Uttar Pradesh 10 (minting undercounted each by 1); Kerala remains
   the sole state at the floor (6, zero margin). Floor unchanged.
4. **r3-b1-04 primary metric** excludes `unknown` (raw shares secondary), as
   triaged.
5. **r3-b1-33's instrument** is the pinning-built Unicode classifier (non-Latin iff
   any codepoint > U+024F, `ascii()`-implementation as recorded in `_c.json`),
   holdings-weighted over all institutions; training separation belt min 45.03% vs
   non-belt max 14.10%. Gujarat having left the batch, its predicted-LOW clause is
   exploratory; holdout tests are J&K (Perso-Arabic signal) and Assam (Assamese
   signal), directional.

## 4. Validation protocol

Watcher-serviced with the census loop: when a holdout state completes and
reconciles, the frozen queries run verbatim against it; near-threshold verdicts
(within 10% relative of a band edge) require independent re-derivation by a second
lane before adjudication; verdicts are appended to this file as dated entries,
committed, with the label rule applied. Adjudication: Fable orchestrator session; a
lane never finalizes a verdict. Survivor counts are always reported against the
disclosed batch size (40). Kills ship with V1 §VII graveyard furniture (scope,
harness audit status, which kill-condition fired, family predicate).

**Tightest-margin watchlist** (pinning §2 — check first on each landing):
r3-b1-27 (0.067pp), -26 (0.396pp), -38 ceiling side (0.45pp), -20 (Kerala at floor,
zero margin), -13 (7.6% relative).

## 5. Metrics this batch feeds V2 (§8 of the GOAL doc)

Batch 40 → triage survival 38/40 (95%) → compile survival at pinning 38/38 → 
registered 38. Registration→validation latency: clocked per state from this commit
to its reconciliation entry. Label integrity: no discovery label without a named-
holdout decider. Exploratory findings (Gujarat et al.) reported separately.

— Registered 2026-08-04, Stephen Pink (operator delegation: "Order everything as
you see fit") · Claude Fable 5 (orchestrator/adjudicator) · minting & pinning:
Sonnet lanes (model family disclosed per V1 §V; rival-minting for mechanism grading
will use a disjoint family per GOAL doc §9 when that stage arrives).

## 7. VALIDATION ENTRIES (dated verdicts; append-only)

### Validation event 1 — Jammu & Kashmir (2026-08-04/05) · DISCOVERY-GRADE

**Decider:** J&K landed EXACT (87,755/87,755, 0 duplicates), **zero facet-move
inflow** (exactly the 60 probe rows predate the walk start — TaskRun-timestamped),
decision floor satisfied. Post-cutoff source in the strong §IV sense. Values:
`popper_v2_rung3_validation_jk_values.{json,md}` (31 instruments run; frozen
queries verbatim; 6-way batched/standalone equivalence check identical; sanity row
exact; enrichment amendment a no-op — J&K has no detail-fetched rows).

**Verdicts (Fable adjudication):**

- **30 of 31 SURVIVE their J&K leg** — every measured value inside its frozen band,
  **0 near-threshold** (nearest relative margin 25.9%), so no second-lane
  re-derivation was triggered. Notables: **r3-b1-19 survives its decisive test at
  genuine risk** — the portal's J&K facet DOES include Ladakh monasteries (top
  Tibetan-tradition institution: Basgo Serzang Monastery, Leh district, 951 rows),
  so the pinned escape clause was live but unneeded; the 53,727 ceiling cleared by
  55×, and the Ladakh boundary question is resolved empirically. r3-b1-17's tail
  law holds in a twelfth state (slope −1.133, R² 0.959). r3-b1-02/-11's top-1
  ceiling holds with the highest single-institution share yet measured (Shri Ranbir
  Sanskrit Research Institute, 29.63% — above every training state, still 10.4pp
  inside). Integrity point-nulls (-34/-35) hold over 87,755 more rows.
- **r3-b1-38: directional sub-test CONFIRMED as predicted.** Islamic-tradition
  share **10.94%** — 5.47× past the "elsewhere" ceiling and patterning with the
  high group (UP 18.48%, Bihar 15.09%), exactly the third-Persian-center outcome
  the registration carved out IN ADVANCE as J&K's non-killing live test. Had the
  carve-out not been registered before any data, this value would have killed the
  conjecture; instead it is strong mechanism support, with the kill side (Assam or
  a tail state ≥2%) still armed. Top J&K Islamic institutions (Oriental Research
  Library 3,796; Allama Iqbal Library 342) are consistent with the mechanism.
- **r3-b1-33 survives** (0.0% non-Latin institution names — patterns LOW as the
  non-Hindi-belt mechanism expects). Neutral finding recorded: J&K's substantial
  Islamic-tradition holdings are catalogued under ROMANIZED institution names —
  name-script and tradition are independent axes.
- **r3-b1-31 survives its J&K leg** (sanskritic dominant, ratio 20.6; no second
  vernacular exception). **Registration-design lesson recorded:** its kill
  condition ("2 or more of {Gujarat, J&K, Assam}") is now UNFIREABLE as literally
  registered — Gujarat's exclusion (ruling 2) left only two deciders and J&K has
  patterned sanskritic, so at most one flip remains. Assam's outcome will be
  reported as informative but cannot kill under the frozen wording. Lesson for
  future batches: named-set kill conditions must anticipate holdout attrition
  (write "N of the then-eligible holdout states" or per-state conditions).

**Kills this event: 0. Batch state: 38 registered / 38 alive; survivor counts
remain read against the disclosed batch of 40.** Remaining deciders: Assam
(r3-b1-28's directional test; -38's kill side) and the post-registration tail UTs
(r3-b1-18 and the ceilings/floors generally).

### Validation event 2 — Assam (2026-08-05) · DISCOVERY-GRADE · FIRST KILL

**Decider:** Assam landed EXACT (77,657/77,657, 0 duplicates, moved-in = probe 60
only), decision floor satisfied. Values:
`popper_v2_rung3_validation_as_values.{json,md}` (31 instruments, 6/6 equivalence
identical, sanity exact, 0 near-threshold).

**Verdicts (Fable adjudication):**

- **r3-b1-28 — KILLED.** The registered directional clause fired: Assam, the named
  decider, shows tibeto_burman at **0.0193% (15 rows of 77,657)** — not merely
  inside the 0.5% ceiling but BELOW West Bengal's training-side 0.131%. The
  registered statement predicted Assam would break the ceiling; the prediction's
  own registered refutation condition ("Assam does NOT show a materially elevated
  share") is met decisively. **Graveyard furniture:** *scope* — NAMAMI holdings,
  language_group grain, India, this portal; *kill-condition fired* — the Assam
  directional clause, exact enumeration (power ≈ 1: a complete count cannot miss
  an elevated share); *harness audit* — frozen query verbatim, 6-way equivalence,
  EXACT-reconciled substrate, zero moved-in; *family predicate* — conjectures
  projecting modern linguistic-demographic geography onto catalogued
  pre-print-manuscript language distributions WITHOUT a manuscript-culture
  transmission mechanism; a claim argues out of the family by supplying the
  mechanism (script tradition, monastic/scribal institution, patronage line).
  *What the death teaches:* the manuscript record does not mirror speech
  demography — largely oral language communities leave no proportional catalogue
  trail, and WB's training-side 0.131% (read at minting as gradient support) was
  the ceiling of the phenomenon, not its foothill. The ceiling HALF of the
  statement (all states <0.5%) has held in 13 states and stands as a fact, but
  the conjecture as registered dies with its directional content.
- **r3-b1-31 — SURVIVES AS REGISTERED, substantively WOUNDED.** Assam is a SECOND
  vernacular-dominant state (indo_aryan 43,469 vs sanskritic 30,916, ratio 0.711 —
  Assamese patterning with Odisha's Oriya). The registered kill ("2 or more of
  {Gujarat, J&K, Assam}") cannot fire — J&K patterned sanskritic and Gujarat is
  excluded — so the conjecture survives on its own frozen wording plus holdout
  attrition, per the event-1 annotation. Recorded plainly: the uniqueness claim's
  substantive content is contradicted; the minted risk-ranking was wrong in
  direction (Gujarat was flagged the live risk; Assam, deemed "lower-risk," took
  the exception). This wound prices the claim: it is not promotable without
  reformulation in a future batch.
- **r3-b1-38 — ceiling side HOLDS on its armed kill state** (Assam 0.0361% ≪ 2%).
  Combined with J&K's directional confirmation (10.94%), −38 exits the India
  holdout alive and mechanism-supported: Persian-center states high, others low,
  as registered.
- **28 further instruments SURVIVE their Assam leg** (all inside bands, 0
  near-threshold; integrity point-nulls now hold across ~4.39M enumeration rows).
  r3-b1-33: 1/4,986 institutions non-Latin (one Devanagari name) — LOW group as
  the mechanism expects.

**Kills this event: 1 (r3-b1-28 — the graveyard's first discovery-grade entry).
Batch state: 37 alive / 1 holdout-killed / 2 triage-killed, against the disclosed
batch of 40.** Remaining deciders: the post-registration tail UTs (r3-b1-18 and
the general ceilings/floors).

### Validation event 3 — Haryana (2026-08-05) · DISCOVERY-GRADE · FIRST MACHINE-ADJUDICATED EVENT

**adjudication: MACHINE (registered rules) — countersigned.**

**Decider:** Haryana (state_id '13') — decision floor computed BY THE RUNNER: walk
complete, reconciled 100.0000% (63,366/63,366), moved-in 120 (the two probe pages,
keyed to TaskRun 8624's start). Values:
`popper_v2_rung3_validation_haryana_values.{json,md}` — 30 instruments, frozen
queries verbatim, 5-way equivalence identical.

**Machine verdicts (unamended):** SURVIVES-LEG 29 (r3-b1-01, -02, -08, -10, -11,
-12, -13, -14, -15, -16, -17, -19, -20, -21, -23, -24, -25, -26, -27, -29, -30,
-31, -32, -34, -35, -36, -37, -38, -40) · KILL-CANDIDATE 0 · REQUIRES-RE-DERIVATION
0 · CONTEXT-ONLY 1 (r3-b1-33) · skipped 8 (6 no-per-state-clause, -18 tail-UT-only,
-28 already holdout-killed, cited to event 2).

**Countersign: Fable orchestrator, 2026-08-05** — draft reviewed against the values
files; verdicts conform to the registered rules; no amendments required; the runner
did not touch this file (its draft is preserved verbatim at
`popper_v2_rung3_validation_haryana_draft_entry.md`). This is the batch's first
validation event executed end-to-end by machine under the registered rules —
orchestrator labor reduced to this countersignature, per the autonomy design
(operator directive 2026-08-05: the engine must act autonomously of humans to
scale).

**Batch state: 37 alive / 1 holdout-killed / 2 triage-killed of disclosed 40.**
Remaining deciders: Delhi (walking; r3-b1-18's first UT test), Manipur, Puducherry,
Punjab, Uttarakhand, Jharkhand.

### Validation event 4 — Delhi (2026-08-05) · DISCOVERY-GRADE · SECOND KILL + FIRST SUPPORTED RESOLUTION

**adjudication: MACHINE (registered rules) + orchestrator rulings on two flagged
items — countersigned.**

**Decider:** Delhi (state_id '10', a Union Territory) — EXACT 51,704/51,704 in a
single call, 0 duplicates, moved-in = the 120 probe rows. Values:
`popper_v2_rung3_validation_delhi_values.{json,md}`; machine draft preserved at
`popper_v2_rung3_validation_delhi_draft_entry.md`.

**Verdicts:**

- **r3-b1-18 — RESOLVED: SUPPORTED** (orchestrator-computed supplement; the
  runner's skip list predates a UT landing). The registered prediction: at least
  one small single-city UT would exceed every training state's top-1 concentration
  (threshold WB's 25.49%). Delhi's top-1 — Bhogilal Leherchand Institute of
  Indology — holds **26,614 of 51,704 = 51.47%**, DOUBLE the threshold, on the
  first UT tested. The single-city-UT concentration mechanism is confirmed;
  remaining UT landings add texture but cannot unconfirm a satisfied
  existence claim. The batch's second directional mechanism validated.
- **r3-b1-20 — KILLED.** Delhi spans **5** distinct script_group values vs the
  frozen floor of 6 (exact enumeration, N=51,704, power ≈ 1). *Graveyard
  furniture:* scope — NAMAMI routing script_group grain, holdings; kill-condition
  fired — the ≥6 floor, set AT the training minimum with zero margin (the minted
  notes called it "one of the tighter/riskier claims"; the pinning watchlist
  flagged Kerala at zero margin) — honest risk taken and lost; harness — machine
  runner, frozen query, EXACT substrate; family predicate — diversity-floor
  claims calibrated at a training extremum with no margin across heterogeneous
  unit classes (multi-city states vs single-city UTs); argues out by margin or by
  unit-class scoping. What the death teaches: administrative units are not a
  homogeneous class for diversity floors — a single-city UT's collecting base is
  structurally narrower.
- **r3-b1-38 — NO KILL, by the frozen escape predicate; second wound recorded.**
  Delhi's Islamic-tradition share is **8.69%** — past the 2% "elsewhere" ceiling.
  The MINTED kill-condition (the statement of record) scopes the kill to states
  "not already known to be a Persian-manuscript center"; Delhi, the Mughal
  capital, is the paradigm case of a known Persian-manuscript center on
  pre-registration knowledge, so the frozen escape applies. Recorded
  transparently: triage ruling 5's compression ("kill fires on Assam or a tail
  state") omitted the predicate; the minted text governs. Substantive state of
  the conjecture: J&K 10.94%, Delhi 8.69% — the "bimodal" enumeration {UP, Bihar}
  vs <2% is now contradicted in spirit twice; what stands is a Persian-heritage
  CONTINUUM. Alive, mechanism-supported, **not promotable as worded** —
  reformulation required in any future batch (same class as −31's wound).
- **r3-b1-17 — SURVIVES-LEG (re-derivation confirmed).** Independent second lane
  reproduced the slope to ~12 significant figures (−2.71318, SE 0.09967, R² 0.909,
  n=76, cross-checked by a from-scratch Python OLS): 0.287 inside the −3.0 edge
  (~2.9 standard errors). `popper_v2_rung3_rederivation_delhi_20260805.md`.
- **r3-b1-37 — SURVIVES-LEG (re-derivation confirmed), with a grain finding.**
  Literal frozen query: 33 distinct values, confirming the machine; the
  re-derivation found ONE of the 33 is the empty string (1,162 rows), so the
  strict non-empty count is 32 — both readings clear the floor of 30. Recorded
  for future batches: frozen distinct-count instruments should exclude empty
  strings explicitly at minting; this instrument's literal text governs for this
  batch (33).
- **25 further instruments SURVIVE their Delhi leg** per the machine draft,
  unamended.

**Countersign: Fable orchestrator, 2026-08-05.** Batch state: **36 alive / 2
holdout-killed (−28 Assam, −20 Delhi) / 2 triage-killed of disclosed 40.**
Remaining deciders: Manipur, Puducherry (second UT test — now context for the
resolved −18), Punjab, Uttarakhand, Jharkhand.

### Validation event 5 — Manipur (2026-08-05) · DISCOVERY-GRADE · THIRD KILL

**adjudication: MACHINE (registered rules) + orchestrator rulings — countersigned.**

**Decider:** Manipur (state_id '22') — EXACT 50,113/50,113 single-call, 0
duplicates, moved-in = probe 120. Values:
`popper_v2_rung3_validation_manipur_values.{json,md}`; machine draft preserved.

**Verdicts:**

- **r3-b1-37 — KILLED.** Manipur spans **21** distinct language_raw values (20
  strict non-empty; orchestrator recount concurs) vs the frozen floor of 30 —
  30% below the edge, no near-threshold ambiguity. *Graveyard furniture:* scope —
  NAMAMI portal language vocabulary, holdings grain; kill-condition fired — the
  [30,160] floor (exact enumeration, power ≈ 1); harness — machine runner +
  independent orchestrator recount on both grain readings; family predicate —
  the SAME family as −20's death: range bounds calibrated on eleven large
  multi-city training states break on small/peripheral administrative units;
  argues out by unit-class scoping or margin. Delhi survived this floor at 33;
  Manipur ends it.
- **r3-b1-20 — stale flag, post-mortem context only.** The runner's container
  registration copy predated event 4, so it re-flagged the already-killed −20
  (Manipur also shows 5 script groups — consistent with the narrowness that
  killed it at Delhi). A conjecture dies once. Standing procedure amended:
  refresh the container's registration copy before each run.
- **r3-b1-31 — third substantive contradiction recorded.** Manipur is
  vernacular-dominant at ratio **0.0499** (indo_aryan 2,643 vs sanskritic 132).
  Odisha-Assam-Manipur now form a pattern where the frozen statement claimed a
  unique exception. The conjecture remains formally alive (its named-set kill is
  attrition-unfireable, per event 1) and is now recorded as substantively dead
  in all but wording — a standing exhibit for why kill conditions must be
  attrition-proof.
- **r3-b1-38 — ceiling holds** (Manipur islamic 0.0%). **27 further instruments
  SURVIVE their Manipur leg** per the machine draft, unamended.

**Countersign: Fable orchestrator, 2026-08-05.** Batch state: **35 alive / 3
holdout-killed (−28, −20, −37) / 2 triage-killed of disclosed 40.** Remaining
deciders: Puducherry (walking), Punjab, Uttarakhand, Jharkhand.

### Validation event 6 — Puducherry (2026-08-05) · DISCOVERY-GRADE · NINE KILLS (the monopoly-territory event)

**adjudication: MACHINE (registered rules) + orchestrator rulings — countersigned.**

**Decider:** Puducherry (state_id '27', UT) — EXACT 19,447/19,447 single-call, 0
duplicates, moved-in = probe 120. **The realized degenerate case: every record in
the territory is held by ONE institution, the French Institute of Pondicherry
(100.0%; orchestrator recount: distinct institutions = 1).** Values:
`popper_v2_rung3_validation_puducherry_values.{json,md}`; machine draft preserved.

**KILLED (9) — shared graveyard furniture, per-id specifics below.** *Family
predicate:* level-based concentration bands and geographic-linguistic composition
claims that presuppose a multi-institution collecting base; a single-institution
territory breaks every level metric at the monopoly maximum and substitutes
institutional collecting policy for regional demography. A claim argues out of
this family by carrying a minimum-institution-count (or unit-class) scope
condition. *Harness:* machine runner + frozen queries + orchestrator recount
(distinct=1 confirmed independently); exact enumeration, power ≈ 1 throughout.

- **r3-b1-02 & -11** (top-1 <40%): 100.0%.
- **r3-b1-12** (top-3 <75%): 100.0%.
- **r3-b1-10** (top-12 <92%): 100.0% — its outside-but-near flag resolved by the
  independent recount (1 institution entails the maximum; re-derivation
  requirement satisfied).
- **r3-b1-13** (HHI-lite <1,500): **10,000.0 — the theoretical monopoly maximum.**
- **r3-b1-14** (top1/top2 <20): no second institution exists; ruled ∞ ≥ 20 (the
  limiting reading of the frozen ratio; recorded as an orchestrator ruling).
- **r3-b1-15** (≥50 distinct institutions): 1.
- **r3-b1-29 & -30** (Dravidian-belt bimodality): **dead under EITHER scope
  reading, no rescue available** — as "non-belt" (the frozen scope's false
  assertion that no holdout state is belt) Puducherry exceeds both ceilings
  (32.71% southern-script vs 15; 13.41% dravidian vs 5); read as belt (which a
  Tamil enclave plainly is on pre-registration knowledge) it UNDERSHOOTS both
  floors (32.71% vs 75; 13.41% vs 20), because the French Institute's specialist
  Indological collection composition — not regional linguistics — sets the mix.
  Recorded: the minted scope contained a factual error (Puducherry's belt
  membership), and the conjectures fail under both corrections of it.

**NOT killed — r3-b1-17 ruled UNCOMPUTABLE on degenerate support** (n=1 point; a
rank-count regression has no slope; null does not fall "outside [-3.0,-0.3]" —
the frozen kill cannot fire on undefined). Scope note appended: the tail-law
claim presupposes ≥2 institutions. Survives with that recorded limit.

**Post-mortem context (stale flags):** −20 (Puducherry spans 6 script groups —
would have SURVIVED the floor that Delhi broke) and −37 (22 languages — consistent
with its Manipur death). Runner's §7 kill-parser needs hardening (second stale
flag); noted for the runner backlog.

**r3-b1-18 — redundant confirmation:** the second UT tested shows top-1 = 100.0%,
vs the resolved prediction's 25.49% threshold. The UT-concentration mechanism now
has two confirmations, the second at the theoretical maximum.

**Remaining instruments SURVIVE their Puducherry leg** per the machine draft.

**Countersign: Fable orchestrator, 2026-08-05.** Batch state: **26 alive / 12
holdout-killed / 2 triage-killed of disclosed 40.** What this event teaches, in
one line: the concentration family was measuring collecting-base plurality, not
manuscript culture — and one degenerate territory exposed it in a single stroke.
Remaining deciders: Punjab (walking), Uttarakhand, Jharkhand.

### Validation event 7 — Punjab (2026-08-05) · DISCOVERY-GRADE · TWO KILLS incl. −38

**adjudication: MACHINE (registered rules) + orchestrator rulings — countersigned.**

**Decider:** Punjab (state_id '28') — EXACT 13,839/13,839 single-call, 0
duplicates, moved-in = probe 120. Values:
`popper_v2_rung3_validation_punjab_values.{json,md}`; machine draft preserved.

**Verdicts:**

- **r3-b1-38 — KILLED.** Islamic-tradition share **6.71%** (928/13,839) ≥ the 2%
  "elsewhere" ceiling. *The escape-predicate ruling of record:* the frozen escape
  ("not already known to be a Persian-manuscript center") is ruled to cover only
  PARADIGM cases determinable on pre-registration common knowledge — Delhi (the
  Mughal capital) qualified; Punjab, whose Persianate manuscript heritage is real
  but contestable (partition moved much of it; Gurmukhi/Sikh culture dominates
  the surviving base), does not. Extending the escape case-by-case to every
  plausibly-Persianate region would hollow the kill-condition — the conservative
  reading governs, and the kill fires. *Graveyard furniture:* scope — NAMAMI
  holdings, tradition grain; kill-condition fired — the elsewhere-ceiling at a
  non-paradigm state (exact enumeration, power ≈ 1); harness — machine runner +
  frozen query; family predicate — enumerated-bimodality claims whose "known
  exception" predicate is open-textured; argues out by naming the exception SET
  exhaustively at registration or registering a continuous-mechanism form. *What
  survives the death:* the Persian-heritage continuum itself (J&K 10.94%
  confirmation, Delhi 8.69%, Punjab 6.71% — a graded signal, exactly what a
  reformulated r3-b2 conjecture should claim).
- **r3-b1-36 — KILLED.** Subject density **3.006%** (416/13,839) vs band
  [0.15%, 1.2%] — 2.5× past the ceiling, no near-threshold ambiguity. Fourth
  member of the small-unit calibration death-family (−20, −37, in part the
  event-6 nine): distinct-count densities calibrated on N ≥ 178k states inflate
  mechanically at small N. Argues out by N-normalized instruments or unit-class
  scope.
- **Stale flags (post-mortem context; runner §7-parser hardening now formally
  owed):** −37 at 31 (would have sat inside its old band — poignant), −10 at
  91.55% (0.45pp inside its old ceiling). No action; both died at earlier events.
- **r3-b1-33 context:** Punjab 8.82% non-Latin holdings-weighted (Gurmukhi
  signal) — below the belt minimum, consistent with the mechanism.
- **Remaining instruments SURVIVE their Punjab leg** per the machine draft.

**Countersign: Fable orchestrator, 2026-08-05.** Batch state: **24 alive / 14
holdout-killed / 2 triage-killed of disclosed 40.** Remaining deciders:
Uttarakhand (walking), Jharkhand.

### Validation event 8 — Uttarakhand (2026-08-05) · DISCOVERY-GRADE · clean

**adjudication: MACHINE (registered rules) — countersigned.** Uttarakhand EXACT
11,964/11,964, moved-in = probe 120. **No live instrument fell.** All three machine
flags were post-mortems of already-dead conjectures (stale §7-parse; hardening
owed): −36 would have failed again (density 3.88% — the small-unit family
pattern reproducing), −37 at 25 below its old floor again, −20 at 6 would have
survived. −33 context: 3.99% non-Latin (Devanagari hill-state signal), below belt
minimum, mechanism-consistent. **Batch unchanged: 24 alive / 14 holdout-killed /
2 triage-killed of 40.** Final decider walking: Jharkhand.

### Validation event 9 — Jharkhand (2026-08-05) · DISCOVERY-GRADE · clean — and the INDIA HOLDOUT CLOSES

**adjudication: MACHINE (registered rules) — countersigned.** Jharkhand EXACT
4,347/4,347 (the national walk's final state). **No live instrument fell.** Five
stale flags, four of which are post-mortems in which the dead conjecture would
have failed AGAIN (−15 at 43 institutions, −20 at 3 script groups, −36 at 3.20%
density, −37 at 18 languages — the small-unit calibration family reproducing with
complete coherence; −10 at 90.2% would have sat inside). **r3-b1-33's strongest
confirmation: 86.17% non-Latin institution names** in a state carved from Bihar —
the Hindi-belt mechanism delivering at full strength on the last decider.

## BATCH r3-b1 CLOSE-OUT — India holdout exhausted (2026-08-05)

**Final tally against the disclosed batch of 40:** minted 40 → triage-killed 2
(−22, −39) → registered 38 → **holdout-killed 14** (−28 Assam; −20 Delhi; −37
Manipur; −02/−10/−11/−12/−13/−14/−15/−29/−30 Puducherry; −38/−36 Punjab) →
**RESOLVED SUPPORTED 1** (−18, twice-confirmed, second time at the theoretical
maximum) → **24 alive**, of which 6 are pattern-B stream conjectures
(−03/−04/−05/−06/−07/−09) whose deciders are future non-India landings — they
remain REGISTERED-OPEN, not survivors of this holdout.

**Label integrity: every verdict in events 1–9 is discovery-grade** — all nine
decider states landed EXACT with moved-in accounted, all post-cutoff sources in
the strong §IV sense. Survivor counts are read against 40 throughout.

**What the batch discovered, in the engine's currency:** (1) the manuscript
record does not mirror speech demography (−28's kill); (2) single-institution
territories break every level-based concentration metric at once — collecting-
base plurality, not manuscript culture, is what those instruments measured
(the Puducherry event); (3) a graded Persian-heritage continuum exists (J&K
10.94 → Delhi 8.69 → Punjab 6.71) — discovered by a conjecture whose brittle
bimodal form died of it; (4) single-city UTs concentrate holdings at double any
state's level (−18, supported); (5) the Hindi-belt script-practice mechanism
holds from Rajasthan's 92% through Jharkhand's 86% to the non-belt floor; (6)
small administrative units break bands calibrated on large ones — with such
coherence that the death-family reproduced in four consecutive post-mortems.

**Method amendments banked for r3-b2** (each dated in the events above):
attrition-proof kill wording; minimum-institution-count / unit-class scope
conditions; N-aware density instruments; exhaustively-named exception sets (or
continuous-mechanism forms) instead of open-textured predicates; empty-string
exclusion in distinct-counts; runner §7-parser hardening (stale-flag pattern).

**The autonomy loop carried events 3–9:** machine floor-checks, frozen queries,
machine verdicts, orchestrator countersign — one signature per event, rulings
only where frozen text was genuinely open (−38's predicate, −17's null slope,
−14's infinity, −29/−30's dual reading).

## 6. Post-registration annotations (dated; frozen content above unchanged)

- **2026-08-04 (same day, hours after the registration commit) — r3-b1-33
  interpretation confound, discovered by an independent investigation lane**
  (`namami_kannada_institutions_report_20260804.md`): ~10% of Rajasthan's records
  (47,638, under 108 distinct Kannada-script institute names) were surveyed by a
  single Karnataka-based Manuscript Resource Centre ("NIPSR, Sravanabelagola" per
  the portal's own MRC field on live-fetched detail pages; portal attribution
  confirmed, harvest defect ruled out on four independent grounds incl. the EXACT
  state reconciliation). Consequence: the classifier measures NON-LATIN script, and
  Rajasthan's frozen training value (92.01%) includes Kannada-script entries from
  this MRC data-entry pathway, not only the Devanagari-practice mechanism the
  statement proposes. Frozen values, band, and kill-conditions are UNCHANGED; this
  annotation binds interpretation only — any survival/kill verdict for -33 must
  discuss the MRC-entry pathway as an unexcluded rival mechanism at mechanism-
  grading time. (It does not touch the holdout tests' logic: J&K Perso-Arabic and
  Assam Assamese signals would carry their own MRC provenance, checkable the same
  way.)

- **2026-08-04 (same evening) — state membership is portal-dynamic** (run-log
  Gujarat entry, same date): the portal re-files records between state facets
  (measured: 8,254 rows moved Rajasthan/Maharashtra → Gujarat during Gujarat's
  walk; all other completed states drift +0). Consequences, interpretation-binding
  only: (1) the frozen training-side values are dated snapshots of portal
  attribution at pinning time — by design; (2) validation instruments compute over
  a holdout state's rows AS PORTAL-ATTRIBUTED at its landing, which may include
  rows earlier filed under training states — this is the portal's reality, covered
  by the same-portal modesty clause, and is NOT holdout contamination (the rows'
  content was never read as holdout material by any batch process); (3) each
  validation entry must record the moved-in count for its state (rows predating
  the state's walk start), so verdicts can discuss facet dynamics where relevant.
