---
conjecture: r3-b1-23
family: grok
model: "Grok 4.5 expert (chat paste-back via orchestrator window)"
received: 2026-08-06
template: PROMPT_TEMPLATE_v1.md sha256 4344aabfacfe88362c56d89b6c89d594a7bf3a221e18a16b0e351482447e512f
rivals_parsed: 2
note: "em-dash in original transcribed as unicode escape in why_it_explains field (paste fidelity)"
---

{
"rivals": [
{
"mechanism": "Abstention rates are driven primarily by variation in the completeness and quality of free-text descriptive fields (title, script, language, notes) across states' source records; the single high-outlier state simply has the poorest average metadata, while every other training state and all holdouts have sufficiently rich cues that the same routing logic leaves far fewer records unassigned, keeping them well under 45%.",
"why_it_explains_the_same_evidence": "If abstention is a direct function of missing or uninformative descriptive fields rather than an intrinsic ceiling of the classification logic, the observed training range (0.13%\u201341.26%) and the fact that all nine holdouts stayed under 45% are exactly what one would expect from ordinary cross-state differences in cataloguing thoroughness; the 45% ceiling is then just a loose margin above the worst observed metadata-quality state.",
"named_confounds": ["data-entry completeness in source records", "cataloguing practice for descriptive metadata", "state-level variation in metadata quality"],
"discriminating_test": {
"description": "For each complete state compute the fraction of records whose free-text title/script/language/notes fields are empty or below a fixed informativeness threshold; correlate that fraction with the abstention share and re-estimate what abstention would be under a uniform metadata-quality filter applied to all states. Measure whether the high-outlier state's abstention collapses toward the others once metadata richness is equalized.",
"computable_on_held_data": true,
"what_result_favors_rival": "If abstention is tightly predicted by the proportion of cue-poor records and equalizing metadata richness removes the 41% outlier (bringing it near the next-highest states), this favors the rival (metadata-quality variation); if high abstention persists even among records with rich free-text cues, this favors the proposed classification-logic ceiling."
}
},
{
"mechanism": "The routing instrument is deliberately conservative and abstains on any record lacking an unambiguous tradition cue; the observed maximum of 41% simply reflects the single state whose institutional collections contain the highest share of such ambiguous or minimally described items, and no complete state in the portal has ever contributed a higher proportion of cue-less material.",
"why_it_explains_the_same_evidence": "Under a conservative abstention rule the training distribution (most states <11%, one extreme at 41%) and the holdout results (all <45%) arise because the portal's contributing institutions simply do not supply states dominated by cue-less records; the 45% ceiling is therefore an empirical bound on the worst institutional metadata mix the portal has encountered rather than a property of how much data the logic itself can resist.",
"named_confounds": ["selection effects in what got catalogued", "institutional variation in descriptive thoroughness", "conservative classification threshold"],
"discriminating_test": {
"description": "Identify the institutions that contribute the largest shares of abstaining records in the high-outlier state and in several low-abstention states; obtain any available external inventories or secondary descriptions of those same institutions and measure the proportion of their holdings that independent cataloguers also leave unassigned to a tradition. Compare the external abstention rates with the portal rates.",
"computable_on_held_data": false,
"what_result_favors_rival": "If external independent cataloguing of the same institutions also yields high abstention only for the outlier state's major contributors (and low abstention elsewhere), this favors the rival (institutional supply of cue-less material); if external rates are uniformly low while the portal shows a 41% outlier, this favors the proposed instrument-logic ceiling."
}
}
],
"no_viable_rival": false,
"notes": ""
}
