---
conjecture: r3-b1-26
family: grok
model: "Grok 4.5 expert (chat paste-back via orchestrator window)"
received: 2026-08-06
template: PROMPT_TEMPLATE_v1.md sha256 4344aabfacfe88362c56d89b6c89d594a7bf3a221e18a16b0e351482447e512f
rivals_parsed: 2
---

{
"rivals": [
{
"mechanism": "The routing instrument only treats the script field as sufficient for tradition identification when the script token belongs to a small set of highly diagnostic scripts (principally Tibetan); because those diagnostic scripts are concentrated in one state, that state produces the observed maximum of 1.60%, while every other state and all holdouts lack comparable volumes of such tokens and therefore stay well under 2%.",
"why_it_explains_the_same_evidence": "If the instrument's decision rule credits 'script alone' only for a narrow diagnostic set, the training pattern (1.60% in the Tibetan-presence state, <0.84% everywhere else) and the holdout results (all under 2%) follow directly from the geographic concentration of those scripts rather than from a general institutional cataloguing pattern that happens to elevate the pathway in one state.",
"named_confounds": ["routing-instrument decision thresholds for script tokens", "geographic concentration of diagnostic scripts", "administrative classification rules"],
"discriminating_test": {
"description": "Extract the distinct script values that triggered this failure mode in the Tibetan-presence state and in the rare cases elsewhere; re-run the routing logic after expanding the set of 'script-sufficient' tokens to include other common scripts that appear in non-Tibetan states. Measure whether the failure-mode shares in non-Tibetan training and holdout states rise above the 2% ceiling under the expanded rule.",
"computable_on_held_data": true,
"what_result_favors_rival": "If expanding the diagnostic set causes one or more non-Tibetan states to exceed 2% while the original narrow set keeps them low, this favors the rival (instrument threshold + script concentration); if rates remain under 2% even after expansion, this favors the proposed state-specific institutional cataloguing pattern."
}
},
{
"mechanism": "Across nearly all contributing institutions the language and script fields are filled or left blank together; the combination 'language blank/unusable + script usable' is therefore intrinsically rare, and the mild elevation to 1.60% in the Tibetan-presence state is still far below 2% because even that state's institutions only occasionally produce the mismatched pattern.",
"why_it_explains_the_same_evidence": "A strong correlation between the presence of language and script values across the portal would keep this specific failure mode under 1% in most states and only marginally higher in the one state that shows slightly more independent script entry; the training maximum of 1.60% and all holdout results under 2% are then the expected outcome of ordinary joint-filling practice rather than a distinctive Tibetan institutional pathway.",
"named_confounds": ["cataloguing practice for joint language/script fields", "data-entry template consistency", "institutional variation in field-pair completeness"],
"discriminating_test": {
"description": "For each complete state compute the joint distribution of language-field usability versus script-field usability; measure the conditional probability that script is usable given that language is blank, and compare that probability across the Tibetan-presence state, other training states, and holdouts. Also test whether records with usable script but blank language differ systematically in institution or record type.",
"computable_on_held_data": true,
"what_result_favors_rival": "If the conditional probability of usable script given blank language is low and similar across almost all states (with only a small elevation in the Tibetan state), and the absolute counts remain tiny, this favors the rival (general joint-filling practice); if the conditional probability is markedly higher only in the Tibetan state and driven by a distinctive institutional subset, this favors the proposed mechanism."
}
}
],
"no_viable_rival": false,
"notes": ""
}
