# QUINCUNX Corrected-Instrument Delta — 10 August 2026

Registered per `docs/DESIGN_QUINCUNX_CIR_PROTOCOL_20260810.md` §5/condition 17:
corrected minus original (alpha), for every registered intermediate quantity,
threshold margin, robustness label, and verdict, with underlying values and
distance-to-threshold — never a bare changed-verdict count. **This is not an
unbiased estimate of typical feedstock error, not a global sensitivity analysis,
and not an independent test of the garbage-in-becomes-verdicts thesis** — it
illustrates that thesis for this one audited-and-repaired instrument. **The
original registered run (alpha, `docs/generated/quincunx_edr_results_20260809.json`)
retains permanent priority as the blind test.** This corrected run addresses
measurement validity only.

Source data: alpha = `docs/generated/quincunx_edr_results_20260809.json`; corrected =
`ops/popper/edr_rivals/results/edr_gate5_execution_20260810T191056Z.json` (produced by
the single official execution logged verbatim in
`docs/generated/quincunx_cir_rerun_log_20260810.txt`).

## 0. Invariance confirmation (what did NOT move)

Manifest/eligibility, corpus fingerprints, and the Sec6.7 overlap audit are **byte-
identical** between alpha and corrected — expected, since no ledger item touches
eligibility, the crosswalk, thresholds, d_dep values, or populations (protocol
condition 3; ledger "What re-executes" clause):

| Check | Alpha | Corrected | Identical? |
|---|---|---|---|
| EDH count/fingerprint | 81,855 / `03fe07...` | 81,855 / `03fe07...` | Yes |
| EDB count/fingerprint | 40,760 / `28e131...` | 40,760 / `28e131...` | Yes |
| EDR eligible manifest count/fingerprint | 105,222 / `e6661c...` | 105,222 / `e6661c...` | Yes |
| Overlap audit conservative union (eligible) | 746 (0.709%) | 746 (0.709%) | Yes |
| Overlap audit broad union (eligible) | 872 (0.8287%) | 872 (0.8287%) | Yes |

No eligibility movement anywhere in this replication — every delta below is
common-support by construction; there is no separate common-support-vs-total-
population split to report.

## 1. Summary — verdict-by-verdict

| Test | Family | Verdict (alpha) | Verdict (corrected) | Flip? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-codex-r2 | -02 | INDETERMINATE (mixed) | INDETERMINATE (mixed) | No |
| 02-grok-r2 | -02 | INDETERMINATE (mixed) | INDETERMINATE (mixed) | No |
| 03-grok-r2 | -03 | FAVORS (PARTIALLY) | FAVORS (PARTIALLY) | No |
| 06-codex-r3 | -06 | REFUTES (within scope) [CONTAMINATION-SENSITIVE] | REFUTES (within scope) [CONTAMINATION-SENSITIVE] | No |
| 09-grok-r1 | -09 | FAVORS (PARTIALLY) | **PARKED-BY-VALIDATION-GATE** | PARK, not a computational flip — see §3 |
| 09-grok-r2 | -09 | REFUTES (within scope) | **PARKED-BY-VALIDATION-GATE** | PARK, not a computational flip — see §3 |
| 14-codex-r2 | -14 | FAVORS (PARTIALLY) | FAVORS (PARTIALLY) | No |
| 18-codex-r2 | -18 | FAVORS (PARTIALLY, proxy sense) | **REFUTES (within scope)** | **YES — the one substantive flip, driven by L9** |
| 18-grok-r2 | -18 | FAVORS (PARTIALLY, methodological-analogy-only) | **PARKED-BY-VALIDATION-GATE** | PARK, not a computational flip — see §3 |
| Pattern-3 (Rome triangulation) | — | NO CALLABLE PATTERN THIS RUN | NO CALLABLE PATTERN THIS RUN | No |

**Net: 1 genuine verdict flip (18-codex-r2) out of 6 analyses that actually computed
this run; 5 of 6 computed analyses are byte-identical to alpha in every intermediate
quantity; 3 analyses PARK under L13 and do not compute (alpha verdict stands as the
published record for each, per §3); Pattern-3 and all 5 pre-registered parks are
byte-identical.**

## 2. The one flip, in full: 18-codex-r2 (bracket density, EDH-comparable)

**Verdict rule** (bundle S:2.8): FAVORS(PARTIALLY, proxy sense) iff EDR's bracket
density is <35% in ≥1 matched province where EDH's stays ≥35%; REFUTES(within scope)
otherwise.

**Mechanism**: L9 is the only ledger item that touches this test's live path. The
alpha `edition_text` column dropped `<gap>`/`<supplied>` spans' Leiden bracketing
entirely (plain ElementTree text-flattening, no markup awareness — confirmed by
direct reconstruction, see the rerun report §L9). Alpha's crude `'[' in edition_text`
method therefore measured almost nothing: EDR bracket density was ~1–2.5% in *every*
province, trivially under 35% everywhere, so the FAVORS existential clause fired in
all 14 matched provinces. The corrected `edition_text_leiden` column renders
`supplied[@reason]` spans as `[content]` and `<gap>` as `[------]` — EDR bracket
density jumps to 49–78% across the board, now *above* 35% in **every** province, so
the FAVORS clause never fires anywhere and the verdict is a clean REFUTES.

**Per-province threshold distance (both runs; threshold = 35%; distance = 35% −
EDR density, positive = qualifying/FAVORS side, negative = REFUTES side)**:

| Province | EDH density (unchanged) | EDR density, alpha | EDR density, corrected | Δ (pp) | Dist-to-35%, alpha | Dist-to-35%, corrected | Qualifies (alpha) | Qualifies (corrected) |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|:---:|:---:|
| Rom | 60.551% | 0.949% | 50.945% | +49.996 | +34.051pp | −15.945pp | Yes | No |
| LaC | 58.468% | 1.622% | 55.072% | +53.449 | +33.378pp | −20.072pp | Yes | No |
| VeH | 54.459% | 1.051% | 61.509% | +60.458 | +33.949pp | −26.509pp | Yes | No |
| ApC | 50.066% | 1.307% | 63.798% | +62.491 | +33.693pp | −28.798pp | Yes | No |
| Etr | 60.983% | 2.301% | 58.580% | +56.279 | +32.699pp | −23.580pp | Yes | No |
| Sam | 60.863% | 1.249% | 69.255% | +68.005 | +33.751pp | −34.255pp | Yes | No |
| Umb | 59.195% | 2.273% | 67.500% | +65.227 | +32.727pp | −32.500pp | Yes | No |
| BrL | 56.504% | 1.570% | 61.496% | +59.926 | +33.430pp | −26.496pp | Yes | No |
| Sar | 65.351% | 2.539% | 78.312% | +75.772 | +32.461pp | −43.312pp | Yes | No |
| Aem | 50.711% | 1.112% | 58.304% | +57.192 | +33.888pp | −23.304pp | Yes | No |
| Sic | 64.767% | 1.189% | 48.983% | +47.793 | +33.811pp | −13.983pp | Yes | No |
| Pic | 68.421% | 2.013% | 66.541% | +64.528 | +32.987pp | −31.541pp | Yes | No |
| Tra | 59.394% | 1.425% | 63.555% | +62.130 | +33.575pp | −28.555pp | Yes | No |
| Lig | 58.621% | 0.423% | 72.227% | +71.804 | +34.577pp | −37.227pp | Yes | No |

EDH-side density and the structured (gap/supplied-based, non-gating diagnostic)
density are both **unchanged from alpha** (EDH: byte-identical, as expected — EDH
side is untouched by L9; structured diagnostic: byte-identical, as expected — it was
always computed from `gap_count`/`supplied_count`, never from `edition_text`, so L9
adds no new information there, only makes the *EDH-method-matched* column agree with
what the structured column already showed).

**Secondary effect — robustness/contamination sensitivity also changed**:

| | Alpha | Corrected |
|---|---|---|
| Governing verdict | FAVORS (PARTIALLY) | REFUTES (within scope) |
| Distinct verdicts under the R=1,483 adversarial sweep (29 candidates) | `["FAVORS (PARTIALLY)"]` | `["FAVORS (PARTIALLY)", "REFUTES (within scope)"]` |
| Survives bound | **True** | **False** |
| Label | (clean) | **CONTAMINATION-SENSITIVE** |

Under alpha, FAVORS was robust to every single-province R-concentration scenario.
Under the corrected instrument, REFUTES is the governing verdict but is **not**
robust — at least one single-province worst-case reassignment of the residual
R=1,483 flips it back to FAVORS. The corrected REFUTES verdict therefore carries the
same CONTAMINATION-SENSITIVE caveat 06-codex-r3 already carried in both runs — this
is disclosed, not smoothed over: the flip moved the *governing* answer from FAVORS to
REFUTES, but did not move it to a *robust* REFUTES.

## 3. The three CIR validation-gate parks (ledger row L13) — alpha verdicts standing

Per `docs/generated/quincunx_cir_gates_20260810.md` and protocol condition 12 ("no
tuning-until-pass"), these three PARK in this re-execution because their governing
proxy failed its registered gold-label validation gate. **No corrected quantity was
computed for any of the three** — `analyze_09_grok_r1`/`analyze_09_grok_r2`/
`analyze_18_grok_r2` short-circuit before issuing any query (verified: zero DB calls,
see the rerun report's test section). **The alpha verdict is the published record**
for each; the corrected-instrument delta is DEFERRED to a future frame with repaired
evidence.

| Test | Failed gate(s) | Alpha verdict (standing, published) | Alpha's own key quantity, for reference only | Corrected disposition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-grok-r1 | PXY-01 (genre, spec LCB99=0.9495<0.95) + PXY-02 (material, neg-class floor 168<250 and sens LCB99=0.8847<0.95) | FAVORS (PARTIALLY) | epitaph/votive share below 85% in 13/14 adequate provinces (majority) | PARKED-BY-VALIDATION-GATE, computed_quantities={} |
| 09-grok-r2 | PXY-01 (genre) | REFUTES (within scope) | plurality_province_fraction = 1.0 (100% of 14 contributing provinces) | PARKED-BY-VALIDATION-GATE, computed_quantities={} |
| 18-grok-r2 | PXY-06 (gap/supplied→loss/restored, sens=0.60<0.95) | FAVORS (PARTIALLY, methodological-analogy-only) | formulaic_fraction_proxy = 0.4865 (≥0.30 threshold) | PARKED-BY-VALIDATION-GATE, computed_quantities={} |

d_dep is carried through the park (disclosure, unchanged from alpha in every case):
09-grok-r1/09-grok-r2 = 0.467 governing / 0.400 alternative (dual-value disclosure);
18-grok-r2 = 0.533 (single-value).

Note on 09-grok-r1 specifically: this is the one live rival that reads material
classification (L1/L3/L4 territory) — its alpha `pooled_non_stone` figure (22,456)
would itself have absorbed the L1/L3/L4 corrections had this test not also been
independently parked by L13. It is parked for the genre-proxy and material-proxy gate
failures together (PXY-01 *and* PXY-02), not by any material-classification
computational effect — see §4 point 3 for why that distinction is verifiable (the
corrected material classifier is exercised directly, outside the parked function, in
`ops/popper/edr_rivals/test_analyses.py`'s new L1/L3/L4/L5 tests).

## 4. PECULIARITIES

1. **Every ledger item except L6 and L9 is confirmed empirically inert on every live
   path this run** — a direct, load-bearing confirmation of the audit's own
   predictions. `computed_quantities` is byte-identical between alpha and corrected
   for 02-codex-r2, 02-grok-r2, 03-grok-r2, 06-codex-r3, and Pattern-3 (none of these
   touch material classification, gap/supplied coercion, `has_image`, or edition
   text). L1/L3/L4/L5 (material-classification fixes) only ever fed
   `analyze_09_grok_r1`, which is independently parked by L13 this run — zero live
   effect, exactly as the ledger's "none live" annotation on L1/L3/L4 predicted. L7
   (numeric coercion) is exercised on this run's real data (`_as_int` is called on
   every `gap_count`/`supplied_count`/`n`/`n_total`/`n_bracket`/`date_start` value
   across all 6 computing analyses) and fires zero times in its repaired branches —
   100% of the underlying jsonb numbers are plain, non-decimal, non-string-quoted, as
   Lane A's SER-05 finding already established. L8 (`has_image` named constant) is
   cosmetic and sits inside the now-parked `analyze_18_grok_r2`. L10 is docstring-only
   by construction.

2. **L6 (14-codex-r2 majority-vs-unanimity fix) changed the *code path* but not the
   *landed verdict*, exactly as the ledger predicted** ("Alpha landed 13/14 shifted,
   outside the divergence band"). Independently reconfirmed here: alpha's own
   `coverage_corrected_peak_bucket_by_province` shows 13 of 14 adequate provinces with
   a peak outside {0,1} (only VeH stays) — 13/14 clears the majority threshold (>7)
   under *both* the old unanimity rule's FAVORS branch (unchanged by L6) and the new
   majority rule, so this specific real-data run cannot distinguish the two rules.
   The two NEW tests added to `test_analyses.py`
   (`test_14_codex_r2_refutes_on_stayed_majority_not_unanimity_L6`,
   `test_14_codex_r2_indeterminate_mixed_on_exact_tie_L6`) exercise the actual
   divergence band with synthetic data, since the real corpus this run doesn't reach
   it.

3. **The 16-record literal-bracket-in-prose finding — a pre-existing phenomenon,
   zero effect from L9.** Direct full-corpus cross-check: 16 of 105,222 eligible
   records (0.0152%) show a literal `[` in `edition_text_leiden` despite
   `gap_count=supplied_count=0` (i.e., no `<gap>`/`<supplied>` markup exists to
   bracket). All 16 were independently confirmed to *already* carry that identical
   literal `[` in the untouched alpha `edition_text` column too (e.g. EDR159955's
   scribal-erasure notation `〚[No]n[iae]〛`, or plain typed brackets like
   `Nedi[musNedymus]` embedded directly in running prose, unrelated to EpiDoc
   apparatus). This is why 18-codex-r2's corrected EDH-method density and its
   structured (gap/supplied) diagnostic density are extremely close but not always
   bit-identical per province (e.g. Rom: 50.945% vs 50.933%, a 0.012pp gap) — fully
   explained, immaterial to any threshold (35%) or verdict. Complementary check: **zero**
   records show the opposite gap (`structured=True` but no `[` in the new column) —
   the renderer never fails to bracket a record that should be bracketed.

4. **A discrepancy in ledger row L1's own numeric list, flagged not resolved.** The
   ledger states the finding as "9 missing stone lod-ids with direct EAGLE-hierarchy
   proof" but its own explicit decision text enumerates only 8: `57, 82, 365, 736,
   739, 743, 744, 745`. Lane A's LUT-12 census independently lists a 9th
   structurally-identical case — Marmor-taenarischer/747 (1 record, "Contained in:
   Marmor"=48, the same parent chain as 739/743/744/745) — that appears in neither the
   ledger's inline list nor its diff block, alongside Lapislazuli/93 (which the ledger
   *does* explicitly exclude via row L2, NO CHANGE, and which is correctly absent
   here). This implementation applied the ledger's literal 8-id list exactly as
   written (conservative reading of "implement exactly its APPLY items… and NOTHING
   else") rather than unilaterally adding the 9th id myself. Zero live-run
   consequence either way — material classification feeds only the now-parked
   09-grok-r1 (1 record out of 105,222 eligible). Full reasoning:
   `docs/generated/quincunx_cir_rerun_report_20260810.md` §L1.

5. **Pattern-3 (Rome triangulation) is untouched and remains decisively
   NO-CALLABLE-PATTERN** — estimand 1's three pairwise corpus contrasts (EDH 0.60%,
   EDB 12.17%, EDR 8.02% non-Latin, standardized) are all far outside the ±2.0pp TOST
   equivalence margin (double-digit percentage-point gaps), and estimand 2
   (funerary/non-funerary standardized) diverges identically in both sub-populations
   — Pattern-3's own criterion (estimand 1 non-equivalent AND estimand 2 equivalent)
   is not met either run. No ledger item touches genre/language/date fields on the
   Pattern-3 path.

6. **Test-suite honesty note**: two of Lane A's own audit-test files
   (`ops/popper/cir_audit_lane_a/test_transport_coercion_roundtrip.py`) hard-coded the
   *pre-fix* SER-05/COE-01 hazard as the expected result (`_as_int("5.0") is None`,
   etc.) — these are exactly the assertions L7 falsifies by design. Both were updated
   to the post-fix correct values (with the original hazard documented in the
   surrounding comment, not deleted) and re-verified to pass — 81/81 checks still
   pass. See the rerun report's test section for the itemized list of every test
   changed and why.
