# Popper V2 rung-3 -- AUTONOMOUS validation, Manipur (machine-run)

**Date:** 2026-08-05. **Batch:** `r3-b1`. **Holdout state:** Manipur (NAMAMI `state_id`='22'). Decision floor: complete=True, reconciled=100.0%. Generated by `run_popper_validation` -- read-only, no writes, no git.

**30 of the registered conjectures carry a per-state `frozen_query`** and were run against this state. Skipped:

| ID | Reason |
|---|---|
| r3-b1-03 | no per-state clause (cross-source/whole-corpus comparator, or tail-UT-only) |
| r3-b1-04 | no per-state clause (cross-source/whole-corpus comparator, or tail-UT-only) |
| r3-b1-05 | no per-state clause (cross-source/whole-corpus comparator, or tail-UT-only) |
| r3-b1-06 | no per-state clause (cross-source/whole-corpus comparator, or tail-UT-only) |
| r3-b1-07 | no per-state clause (cross-source/whole-corpus comparator, or tail-UT-only) |
| r3-b1-09 | no per-state clause (cross-source/whole-corpus comparator, or tail-UT-only) |
| r3-b1-18 | no per-state clause (cross-source/whole-corpus comparator, or tail-UT-only) |
| r3-b1-28 | already holdout-killed (registration §7 Validation event 2 -- Assam (2026-08-05)); registration §7 events 1-2 |

---

## Machine verdicts

| Verdict | Count |
|---|---:|
| CONTEXT-ONLY | 1 |
| KILL-CANDIDATE | 2 |
| SURVIVES-LEG | 27 |

## Compact value table

| ID | Band | Measured | Distance | Relative | Near-threshold | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|:---:|---|
| r3-b1-01 | ceiling: NAMAMI dated-fraction < 1% per state; direction: >=1 order of magnitude below every comparator | {"date_precision_breakdown": {"unknown": 50113}, "dated_fraction_pct": 0.0, "filtered_total_rows": 50113, "rows_excluded_by_amendment": 0} | 1.0 | 1.0 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-02 | ceiling 40% (NAMAMI states and clean comparators alike) | {"institution": "Manipur State Kala Akademi", "n": 3767, "pct": 7.517011553888213} | 32.48298844611179 | 0.8120747111527947 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-08 | ceiling 1% per state (training) | {"populated": 0, "total": 50113, "pct": 0.0} | 1.0 | 1.0 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-10 | ceiling 92% | {"top12_cum_pct": 27.402071318819466} | 64.59792868118053 | 0.7021513987084841 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-11 | ceiling 40% | {"institution": null, "n": 3767, "pct": 7.517011553888213} | 32.48298844611179 | 0.8120747111527947 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-12 | ceiling 75% | {"top3_cum_pct": 12.866920759084469} | 62.133079240915535 | 0.8284410565455405 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-13 | ceiling 1500 | {"hhi12": 95.75567128412908} | 1404.244328715871 | 0.9361628858105807 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-14 | ceiling 20 | {"top1_top2_ratio": 2.7739322533136965} | 17.226067746686304 | 0.8613033873343152 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-15 | floor 50 | {"distinct_institutes": 727} | 677.0 | 13.54 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-16 | ceiling 103 per 1000 | {"n": 50113, "distinct_inst": 727, "density_per_1000": 14.50721369704468} | 88.49278630295532 | 0.8591532650772361 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-17 | [-3.0, -0.3] | {"npoints": 500, "slope": -1.1470151268457576, "se": 0.009552566299374966, "r2": 0.9666125238472018} | 0.8470151268457575 | 2.8233837561525252 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-19 | threshold 53,727 (frozen as minted) | {"top_tibetan_institution": null, "top_tibetan_institution_count": 0, "state_total_tibetan_tradition_rows": 0} | 53727.0 | 1.0 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-20 | floor 6 | {"distinct_script_groups": 5} | -1.0 | -0.16666666666666666 | False | KILL-CANDIDATE |
| r3-b1-21 | floor 20% | {"sanskrit_n": 44762, "total": 50113, "pct": 89.32213198172131} | 69.32213198172131 | 3.4661065990860656 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-23 | ceiling 45% | {"unclassified_n": 5351, "total": 50113, "pct": 10.67786801827869} | 34.32213198172131 | 0.7627140440382514 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-24 | ceiling 35% | {"n": 0, "total": 50113, "pct": 0.0} | 35.0 | 1.0 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-25 | ceiling 15% | {"n": 5351, "total": 50113, "pct": 10.67786801827869} | 4.322131981721309 | 0.288142132114754 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-26 | ceiling 2% | {"n": 43, "total": 50113, "pct": 0.08580607826312533} | 1.9141939217368746 | 0.9570969608684373 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-27 | ceiling 0.1% | {"n": 0, "total": 50113, "pct": 0.0} | 0.1 | 1.0 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-29 | >75% in belt AND <15% outside belt | {"n": 1, "total": 50113, "pct": 0.0019954901921657056} | 14.998004509807835 | 0.9998669673205224 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-30 | >20% in belt AND <5% outside belt | {"n": 3, "total": 50113, "pct": 0.005986470576497116} | 4.994013529423503 | 0.9988027058847007 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-31 | exactly one exception (Odisha) among the 11 training states | {"sanskritic_n": 132, "indo_aryan_n": 2643, "sanskritic_over_indo_aryan_ratio": 0.049943246311010214} | -0.9500567536889898 | -0.9500567536889898 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-32 | floor 35% | {"basis": "language_facet_south_asian", "n": 44719, "total": 50113, "pct": 89.23632590345818} | 54.23632590345818 | 1.5496093115273766 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-33 | belt (Bihar/MP/Rajasthan) substantially and cleanly separated above non-belt (Karnataka/Kerala/Maharashtra/Odisha/TN/HP); contradiction (no clean separation) kills at compile | {"non_latin_holdings": 0, "total_holdings": 50113, "holdings_weighted_non_latin_pct": 0.0, "non_latin_distinct": 0, "total_distinct": 727, "distinct_non_latin_pct": 0.0} | None | None | False | CONTEXT-ONLY |
| r3-b1-34 | exact zero (integrity check, not a statistical band) | {"bad_count": 0, "total": 50113, "bad_share_pct": 0.0} | 0 | None | n/a (exact-zero band; relative margin undefined, see distance) | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-35 | exact zero (integrity check) | {"bad_count": 0, "filtered_total": 50113, "bad_share_pct": 0.0, "rows_excluded_by_amendment": 0} | 0 | None | n/a (exact-zero band; relative margin undefined, see distance) | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-36 | [0.15%, 1.2%] | {"n": 50113, "distinct_subj": 188, "density_pct": 0.37515215612715264} | 0.22515215612715264 | 1.5010143741810176 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-37 | [30, 160] | {"distinct_language_count": 21} | -9.0 | -0.3 | False | KILL-CANDIDATE |
| r3-b1-38 | >10% in {UP, Bihar} AND <2% elsewhere | {"islamic_n": 0, "total": 50113, "pct": 0.0} | 2.0 | 1.0 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-40 | ceiling 0.5% | {"populated": 0, "total": 50113, "pct": 0.0} | 0.5 | 1.0 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |

## Equivalence check (batched temp-table form vs. verbatim-standalone form)

**All identical: True** (5 entries checked: r3-b1-01, r3-b1-15, r3-b1-19, r3-b1-31, r3-b1-33).

No git commit made. This file and its `.json` twin are machine-generated values-only output; the corresponding `_draft_entry.md` carries the machine verdicts in registration §7 entry format, pending orchestrator countersign.
