---
conjecture: r3-b1-40
family: grok
model: "Grok 4.5 expert (chat paste-back via orchestrator window)"
received: 2026-08-06
template: PROMPT_TEMPLATE_v1.md sha256 4344aabfacfe88362c56d89b6c89d594a7bf3a221e18a16b0e351482447e512f
rivals_parsed: 2
---

{
"rivals": [
{
"mechanism": "The underlying NAMAMI portal database records lack any extent or folio-count metadata for holdings in the training and holdout states because contributing institutions uniformly omit physical-extent information from their data feeds; the list-page harvest therefore records a blank field on every row.",
"why_it_explains_the_same_evidence": "If the extent field is simply absent from the source data for every complete state, any list-page enumeration will show exactly 0% population in the 11 training states and remain under 0.5% in the nine holdouts (after pilot exclusion), matching the observed pattern without requiring a parsing omission specific to the list-page schema.",
"named_confounds": ["source-institution cataloguing practice", "data-entry completeness in portal database feeds"],
"discriminating_test": {
"description": "Access individual manuscript detail pages or any richer per-record view (or official bulk metadata export) for stratified samples from multiple training and holdout states and inspect whether an extent, folio, or leaf-count field is populated. Measure the populated fraction in those detailed records versus the list harvests.",
"computable_on_held_data": false,
"what_result_favors_rival": "If extent remains absent even in detail views and official exports, this favors the rival (true data absence); if extent appears in details but was missing from list enumerations, this favors the proposed list-page parsing omission."
}
},
{
"mechanism": "A portal-wide technical or policy configuration suppresses or blanks the extent/folio-count field for all state-faceted list outputs, independent of whether the enumeration schema is designed to parse that field.",
"why_it_explains_the_same_evidence": "Uniform suppression at the portal level applied to every state's list view would force near-zero population of the extent field in both the training states (exactly 0%) and the holdout states (under 0.5%), while the small number of populated records observed outside these states remains consistent with a different non-suppressed pathway.",
"named_confounds": ["portal software configuration artifact", "administrative data-suppression policy"],
"discriminating_test": {
"description": "Compare the harvested list-page extent fields against any official NAMAMI API, bulk download, or non-list interface that exposes the same records; compute the populated fraction in those alternative access methods for the same states.",
"computable_on_held_data": false,
"what_result_favors_rival": "If official alternative interfaces also show near-zero extent population across the same states, this favors the rival (portal-wide suppression); if they show substantially higher fractions, this favors the proposed list-page parsing omission."
}
}
],
"no_viable_rival": false,
"notes": ""
}
