# Popper V2 rung-3 — VALUES-ONLY validation, first holdout landing: Jammu & Kashmir

**Date:** 2026-08-04. **Batch:** `r3-b1`. **Holdout state:** Jammu & Kashmir (NAMAMI
`state_id`='15', site total 87,755, EXACT-reconciled). **Method:** read-only against
prod (`docker exec inferopedia-db-1 psql -U inferopedia -d inferopedia`), aggregate
queries only, no writes, no git. This document reports **measured values only** —
band membership, distance, and near-threshold status are computed and stated
numerically; no survive/kill/adjudication language appears anywhere below.
Adjudication is a separate step by the orchestrator session.

Registered instruments: `popper_v2_rung3_registration_20260804.md`,
`popper_v2_rung3_pinned_instruments_{a,b,c}.json`. **31 of the 38 registered
conjectures** carry a per-state `frozen_query` and were run against J&K, per the
task's inclusion rule. **7 skipped**, per the task's explicit skip list:

- Cross-source-only / pattern-B (no per-state clause): r3-b1-03, -04, -05, -06, -07, -09
- Tail-UT-only (decided exclusively by future tail-UT data, not J&K): r3-b1-18
- (Already outside the registered 38, killed at triage: r3-b1-22, r3-b1-39 — not counted above)

---

## 0. Sanity row

| Check | Value |
|---|---|
| Total J&K rows seen (`source_id=51 AND raw->>'holding_state_id'='15'`) | **87,755** |
| Expected (task brief) | 87,755 |
| Match | Yes, exact |
| Rows with `raw->>'namami_detail_fetched'='true'` | **0** |
| Effect of the §3.1 enrichment-exclusion amendment (r3-b1-01/-08/-35/-40) | **0 rows removed** — J&K has not been through phase-2 detail-enrichment at this landing, so all four amended entries also see the full 87,755-row state |
| Distinct `institute_raw` values | 700 |
| Rows with non-blank `institute_raw` | 87,755 (100% attributed) |
| `tradition` breakdown | sanskrit 62,110 · tibetan 15,666 · islamic 9,601 · unclassified 372 · other 6 (sums to 87,755) |

No filter reduces the row count below 87,755 for any of the 31 entries run.

---

## 1. Compact value table

Distance/relative are signed: **positive = inside the band, on the margin side**;
**negative = past that edge**. Relative = distance ÷ edge value (or ÷ nearest edge
for range bands). near_threshold = |relative| ≤ 10%.

| ID | Band | Measured | Distance | Relative | Near-threshold |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|:---:|
| r3-b1-01 | ceiling <1% dated-fraction | 0.0% (87,755/87,755 `unknown`) | +1.0000 pp | 100.0% | false |
| r3-b1-02 | ceiling 40% top-1 share | 29.6279% (Shri Ranbir Sanskrit Research Institute, 26,000) | +10.3721 pp | 25.93% | false |
| r3-b1-08 | ceiling 1% `extent_leaves` populated | 0.0% (0/87,755) | +1.0000 pp | 100.0% | false |
| r3-b1-10 | ceiling 92% top-12 cum. share | 55.6834% | +36.3166 pp | 39.47% | false |
| r3-b1-11 | ceiling 40% top-1 share (India-only) | 29.6279% (same figure as -02) | +10.3721 pp | 25.93% | false |
| r3-b1-12 | ceiling 75% top-3 cum. share | 45.8002% | +29.1998 pp | 38.93% | false |
| r3-b1-13 | ceiling 1500 HHI-lite(top-12) | 1091.2015 | +408.7985 | 27.25% | false |
| r3-b1-14 | ceiling 20 top1/top2 ratio | 2.1140 | +17.8860 | 89.43% | false |
| r3-b1-15 | floor 50 distinct institutions | 700 | +650 | 1300% | false |
| r3-b1-16 | ceiling 103/1000 institution density | 7.9768/1000 | +95.0232 | 92.26% | false |
| r3-b1-17 | slope ∈ [-3.0, -0.3] | -1.1333 (n=500, R²=0.9593, SE=0.0105) | +0.8333 (from -0.3) | 277.8% | false |
| r3-b1-19 | threshold 53,727 (top tibetan-tradition institution) | Basgo Serzang Monastery, 951 | +52,776 | 98.23% | false |
| r3-b1-20 | floor 6 distinct script_group | 9 | +3 | 50.0% | false |
| r3-b1-21 | floor 20% sanskrit tradition | 70.7766% | +50.7766 pp | 253.9% | false |
| r3-b1-23 | ceiling 45% unclassified tradition | 0.4239% | +44.5761 pp | 99.06% | false |
| r3-b1-24 | ceiling 35% `unrecognised_evidence` basis | 0.0160% | +34.9840 pp | 99.95% | false |
| r3-b1-25 | ceiling 15% `no_language_or_script_evidence` basis | 0.4080% | +14.5920 pp | 97.28% | false |
| r3-b1-26 | ceiling 2% `script` basis | 0.3852% | +1.6148 pp | 80.74% | false |
| r3-b1-27 | ceiling 0.1% `script_outranks_language_facet` basis | 0.00684% | +0.09316 pp | 93.16% | false |
| r3-b1-28 | ceiling 0.5% tibeto_burman (training side; Assam is the named directional decider) | 0.00228% | +0.4977 pp | 99.54% | false |
| r3-b1-29 | outside-belt ceiling <15% brahmic_southern | 0.5926% | +14.4074 pp | 96.05% | false |
| r3-b1-30 | outside-belt ceiling <5% dravidian | 0.0741% | +4.9259 pp | 98.52% | false |
| r3-b1-31 | sanskritic/indo_aryan breakeven (ratio=1) | sanskritic 59,242 / indo_aryan 2,876, ratio 20.5987 | +19.5987 | 1959.9% | false |
| r3-b1-32 | floor 35% max routing-basis share | 70.4495% (`language_facet_south_asian`, 61,823) | +35.4495 pp | 101.28% | false |
| r3-b1-33 | belt/non-belt Unicode-classifier context (no per-state band) | 0.0% holdings-weighted non-Latin (0/700 distinct) | -0.1645 (vs TN's non-belt-min 0.1645%) | -100% | false |
| r3-b1-34 | exact zero (`holding_is_not_origin` integrity) | 0 exceptions / 87,755 | 0 | n/a | n/a (exact-zero band) |
| r3-b1-35 | exact zero (`date_precision` integrity) | 0 exceptions / 87,755 | 0 | n/a | n/a (exact-zero band) |
| r3-b1-36 | range [0.15%, 1.2%] subject density | 0.7760% (681/87,755) | +0.4240 pp (from 1.2%) | 35.33% | false |
| r3-b1-37 | range [30, 160] distinct languages | 62 | +32 (from 30) | 106.67% | false |
| r3-b1-38 | outside-belt ceiling <2% islamic tradition | **10.9407%** (9,601/87,755) | **-8.9407 pp** | **-447.0%** | false (outside, not near) |
| r3-b1-40 | ceiling 0.5% `extent_leaves` populated | 0.0% (0/87,755) | +0.5000 pp | 100.0% | false |

**0 of 31 near-threshold** (none within 10% relative of its nearest band edge).
**1 of 31 (r3-b1-38) sits past its edge** — see §3.

---

## 2. Decisive / directional entries — extra precision

Per the task brief, these four are the batch's decisive/directional tests and are
reported with exact counts (already the case above; repeated here for visibility):

- **r3-b1-19** (Ladakh/Tibetan, escape-clause-eligible): largest tibetan-tradition
  institution in J&K = **Basgo Serzang Monastery, 951 records** (Basgo, Leh
  district, Ladakh). Threshold (frozen) = 53,727. Context, not part of the frozen
  `LIMIT 1` instrument: J&K's total tibetan-tradition rows = 15,666; #2 and #3
  institutions by holdings are Shey Palace (765) and GOMPA VILLAGE (539).
- **r3-b1-38** (Persian heritage): islamic-tradition share = **9,601 / 87,755 =
  10.9407%**. Top J&K islamic-tradition institutions: Oriental Research Library
  (3,796), Syed Mohmad Tahir Indrabi/Kreeri (512), Allama Iqbal Library (342).
- **r3-b1-33** (Unicode classifier, `_c.json` implementation): holdings-weighted
  non-Latin share = **0 / 87,755 = 0.0000%**; distinct-institution-weighted =
  **0 / 700 = 0.0000%**.
- **r3-b1-31**: sanskritic count = **59,242**; indo_aryan count = **2,876**
  (ratio 20.5987).

---

## 3. Anomalous / notable values (stated neutrally)

**r3-b1-38 — islamic-tradition share sits past its "elsewhere" ceiling.** The
registered band is bimodal: >10% in {UP, Bihar}, <2% elsewhere. J&K is not UP or
Bihar, so the applicable edge is the <2% "elsewhere" ceiling. Measured value is
10.9407% — 8.9407 percentage points past that ceiling, i.e. -447.0% relative
distance as tabulated in §1 (the measured value is itself 5.47x the ceiling value).
This is precisely the outcome-space the registration document names in advance as
J&K's "live at-risk sub-test" (§2) and the batch's directional non-killing sub-test
for r3-b1-38 (registration §2, minted notes). Reported as a value, not an
adjudication.

**r3-b1-33 — zero non-Latin institution names in J&K, despite the islamic-tradition
share above.** The mechanical classifier (non-Latin iff any codepoint in
`institute_raw` exceeds U+024F/591) found **0 of J&K's 700 distinct institutions**
non-Latin — below even the training set's non-belt minimum (Tamil Nadu, 0.1645%).
A spot-check (10 J&K institutions with the highest max-codepoint found, run
directly against the base table, same method the pinning pass used on Rajasthan)
confirms this is not a classifier defect: the highest codepoint found among all 700
J&K institution names is 347 ("Smt Puspa śāstri", a Latin-Extended-A diacritic),
and several institution names carrying clear Perso-Arabic/Islamic content are
romanized rather than written in Perso-Arabic Unicode script, e.g. "Qazī Qamar-Ud-
Din, S/o Mord Yousuf Qurishi, Nowshahrah" (max codepoint 299). Net observation:
J&K's substantial islamic-tradition holdings (10.94% of records, per r3-b1-38) are
catalogued under Latin-transliterated institution names, not non-Latin-script ones
— the two facts are independent axes (institution-name script vs. record
`tradition` classification) and are not in tension.

**r3-b1-20 — script_group diversity.** 9 distinct script_group values, above the
floor of 6 and inside the training range (Kerala 6 .. Uttar Pradesh 10); not
itself anomalous, noted only because r3-b1-20 was a training-side precision-
correction case (see the pinning report) — J&K's own measurement required no
correction.

No other measured value fell outside its registered band, and no other value
showed classifier or data-quality irregularities on inspection.

---

## 4. Equivalence check (batched temp-table form vs. verbatim-standalone form)

Per the task's efficiency clause, all 31 entries ran against session-temp tables
(`namami15`: 87,755 rows, `SELECT id, raw, tradition, date_precision, extent_leaves,
date_start FROM scriptome_manuscriptrecord WHERE source_id=51 AND
raw->>'holding_state_id'='15'` — scoped to state 15 only, structurally unable to
touch any other state's content; plus a derived institution-grain temp table
`inst_ranked15`). **6 of the 31** (exceeding the ≥5 requirement) were additionally
re-run in fully verbatim-standalone form directly against
`scriptome_manuscriptrecord`, with no temp table involved:

| ID | Batched result | Standalone result | Identical? | Batched (s) | Standalone (s) |
|---|---|---|:---:|---:|---:|
| r3-b1-01 | unknown=87,755 | unknown=87,755 | Yes | 0.317 | 16.751 |
| r3-b1-15 | 700 | 700 | Yes | 1.879 | 108.418 |
| r3-b1-19 | Basgo Serzang Monastery, 951 | Basgo Serzang Monastery, 951 | Yes | 0.110 | 2.443 |
| r3-b1-31 | 59,242 / 2,876 | 59,242 / 2,876 | Yes | 0.446 | 12.630 |
| r3-b1-33 | non_latin=0(NULL sum)/87,755; distinct 0/700 | non_latin=0(NULL sum)/87,755; distinct 0/700 | Yes | 0.035 | 31.275 |
| r3-b1-38 | 9,601 / 87,755 | 9,601 / 87,755 | Yes | 0.187 | 8.285 |

**All 6 identical.** (`non_latin_holdings` prints as SQL NULL rather than 0 in both
forms — `SUM(...) FILTER(...)` over zero matching rows returns NULL, not 0, in
Postgres; `non_latin_distinct=0` in both forms confirms the filter matched nothing,
i.e. the semantic value is 0 either way.) The standalone forms took 6×–975× longer
than the batched forms (heaviest: r3-b1-15's plain `COUNT(DISTINCT ...)`, 108.4s
standalone vs 1.9s batched), because they scan the full ~6.6M-row base table rather
than the pre-filtered 87,755-row temp table — this is the expected efficiency case
for batching, not a discrepancy.

Temp-table build cost (one-time, amortized across the 31 batched queries):
`namami15` create 13.835s, index+analyze 1.563s; `inst_ranked15` create+analyze
0.336s. Total setup ≈15.7s; sum of the 31 batched-form query times ≈13.9s.

---

## 5. Entries skipped (per task instruction)

| ID | Reason |
|---|---|
| r3-b1-03 | cross-source-only, no per-state clause |
| r3-b1-04 | whole-source (korcis), no per-state clause |
| r3-b1-05 | whole-source (ContainedText density), no per-state clause |
| r3-b1-06 | whole-source (FANKHA), no per-state clause |
| r3-b1-07 | whole-corpus (SfarData scribe attestation), no per-state clause |
| r3-b1-09 | per-source (not per-state), no NAMAMI/state component |
| r3-b1-18 | tail-UT-only by construction; not decided by J&K |

(r3-b1-22 and r3-b1-39 are outside the registered 38 entirely — killed at triage,
2026-08-04, per `popper_v2_rung3_triage_20260804.md`.)

---

## 6. Files

- `docs/generated/popper_v2_rung3_validation_jk_values.json` — machine-readable
  form: one entry per conjecture (id, frozen_query_as_run, values, band, distance,
  near_threshold, runtime_s), plus sanity/equivalence/methodology blocks.
- This file — human-readable compact table + notes.

No git commit made (per task instruction — deliverables only).
