# Popper V2 rung-3 — VALUES-ONLY validation, second holdout landing: Assam

**Date:** 2026-08-05. **Batch:** `r3-b1`. **Holdout state:** Assam (NAMAMI
`state_id`='4', site total 77,657, EXACT-reconciled, zero facet-move inflow per task
brief). **Method:** read-only against prod (`docker exec inferopedia-db-1 psql -U
inferopedia -d inferopedia`), aggregate queries only, no writes, no git. This
document reports **measured values only** — band membership, distance, and
near-threshold status are computed and stated numerically; no survive/kill/
adjudication language appears anywhere below. Adjudication is a separate step by
the orchestrator session.

Registered instruments: `popper_v2_rung3_registration_20260804.md`,
`popper_v2_rung3_pinned_instruments_{a,b,c}.json`. Identical protocol to the J&K
run (`popper_v2_rung3_validation_jk_values.{json,md}`). **31 of the 38 registered
conjectures** carry a per-state `frozen_query` and were run against Assam, per the
task's inclusion rule. **7 skipped**, per the task's explicit skip list:

- Cross-source-only / pattern-B (no per-state clause): r3-b1-03, -04, -05, -06, -07, -09
- Tail-UT-only (decided exclusively by future tail-UT data, not Assam): r3-b1-18
- (Already outside the registered 38, killed at triage: r3-b1-22, r3-b1-39 — not counted above)

---

## 0. Sanity row

| Check | Value |
|---|---|
| Total Assam rows seen (`source_id=51 AND raw->>'holding_state_id'='4'`) | **77,657** |
| Expected (task brief) | 77,657 |
| Match | Yes, exact |
| Rows with `raw->>'namami_detail_fetched'='true'` | **0** |
| Effect of the §3.1 enrichment-exclusion amendment (r3-b1-01/-08/-35/-40) | **0 rows removed** — Assam has not been through phase-2 detail-enrichment at this landing, so all four amended entries also see the full 77,657-row state (same no-op outcome as the J&K leg) |
| Distinct `institute_raw` values | 4,986 |
| Rows with non-blank `institute_raw` | 77,657 (100% attributed) |
| `tradition` breakdown | sanskrit 74,903 · unclassified 1,569 · other 1,129 · islamic 28 · armenian 16 · tibetan 12 (sums to 77,657) |

No filter reduces the row count below 77,657 for any of the 31 entries run. Note:
Assam's tradition breakdown carries an `armenian` category (16 rows) not present in
J&K's breakdown (sanskrit/tibetan/islamic/unclassified/other only) — reported as a
raw-data observation, not interpreted further here.

---

## 1. Compact value table

Distance/relative are signed: **positive = inside the band, on the margin side**;
**negative = past that edge**. Relative = distance ÷ edge value (or ÷ nearest edge
for range bands). near_threshold = |relative| ≤ 10%.

| ID | Band | Measured | Distance | Relative | Near-threshold |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|:---:|
| r3-b1-01 | ceiling <1% dated-fraction | 0.0% (77,657/77,657 `unknown`) | +1.0000 pp | 100.0% | false |
| r3-b1-02 | ceiling 40% top-1 share | 21.4211% (Kalakhetra,Guwahati, 16,635) | +18.5789 pp | 46.45% | false |
| r3-b1-08 | ceiling 1% `extent_leaves` populated | 0.0% (0/77,657) | +1.0000 pp | 100.0% | false |
| r3-b1-10 | ceiling 92% top-12 cum. share | 47.0582% | +44.9418 pp | 48.85% | false |
| r3-b1-11 | ceiling 40% top-1 share (India-only) | 21.4211% (same figure as -02) | +18.5789 pp | 46.45% | false |
| r3-b1-12 | ceiling 75% top-3 cum. share | 35.1752% | +39.8248 pp | 53.10% | false |
| r3-b1-13 | ceiling 1500 HHI-lite(top-12) | 595.3458 | +904.6542 | 60.31% | false |
| r3-b1-14 | ceiling 20 top1/top2 ratio | 2.1022 | +17.8978 | 89.49% | false |
| r3-b1-15 | floor 50 distinct institutions | 4,986 | +4,936 | 9872% | false |
| r3-b1-16 | ceiling 103/1000 institution density | 64.2054/1000 | +38.7946 | 37.66% | false |
| r3-b1-17 | slope ∈ [-3.0, -0.3] | -0.8507 (n=500, R²=0.9697, SE=0.0067) | +0.5507 (from -0.3) | 183.56% | false |
| r3-b1-19 | threshold 53,727 (top tibetan-tradition institution) | Nakunia Budha Mandir, 9 | +53,718 | 99.98% | false |
| r3-b1-20 | floor 6 distinct script_group | 8 | +2 | 33.33% | false |
| r3-b1-21 | floor 20% sanskrit tradition | 96.4536% | +76.4536 pp | 382.27% | false |
| r3-b1-23 | ceiling 45% unclassified tradition | 2.0204% | +42.9796 pp | 95.51% | false |
| r3-b1-24 | ceiling 35% `unrecognised_evidence` basis | 0.0% | +35.0000 pp | 100.0% | false |
| r3-b1-25 | ceiling 15% `no_language_or_script_evidence` basis | 2.0204% | +12.9796 pp | 86.53% | false |
| r3-b1-26 | ceiling 2% `script` basis | 0.2717% | +1.7283 pp | 86.41% | false |
| r3-b1-27 | ceiling 0.1% `script_outranks_language_facet` basis | 0.00901% | +0.09099 pp | 90.99% | false |
| r3-b1-28 | ceiling 0.5% tibeto_burman (Assam = named directional decider) | **0.01932%** (15/77,657) | +0.4807 pp | 96.14% | false |
| r3-b1-29 | outside-belt ceiling <15% brahmic_southern | 0.00773% | +14.9923 pp | 99.95% | false |
| r3-b1-30 | outside-belt ceiling <5% dravidian | 0.00386% | +4.9961 pp | 99.92% | false |
| r3-b1-31 | sanskritic/indo_aryan breakeven (ratio=1) | sanskritic 30,916 / indo_aryan 43,469, ratio **0.7112** | -0.2888 | -28.88% | false |
| r3-b1-32 | floor 35% max routing-basis share | 96.1832% (`language_facet_south_asian`, 74,693) | +61.1832 pp | 174.81% | false |
| r3-b1-33 | belt/non-belt Unicode-classifier context (no per-state band) | 0.0013% holdings-weighted non-Latin (1/4,986 distinct) | -0.1632 (vs TN's non-belt-min 0.1645%) | -99.22% | false |
| r3-b1-34 | exact zero (`holding_is_not_origin` integrity) | 0 exceptions / 77,657 | 0 | n/a | n/a (exact-zero band) |
| r3-b1-35 | exact zero (`date_precision` integrity) | 0 exceptions / 77,657 | 0 | n/a | n/a (exact-zero band) |
| r3-b1-36 | range [0.15%, 1.2%] subject density | 0.5833% (453/77,657) | +0.4333 pp (from 0.15%) | 288.89% | false |
| r3-b1-37 | range [30, 160] distinct languages | 54 | +24 (from 30) | 80.00% | false |
| r3-b1-38 | outside-belt ceiling <2% islamic tradition | **0.0361%** (28/77,657) | +1.9639 pp | 98.20% | false |
| r3-b1-40 | ceiling 0.5% `extent_leaves` populated | 0.0% (0/77,657) | +0.5000 pp | 100.0% | false |

**0 of 31 near-threshold** (none within 10% relative of its nearest band edge).
**0 of 31 counted as outside-band-far** — see §3 for r3-b1-31's negative
schema-consistency value and why it is reported separately from that tally.

---

## 2. Decisive / directional entries — extra precision

Per the task brief, these four are this event's decisive/directional tests:

- **r3-b1-28** (tibeto_burman language_group share — the batch's registered
  directional decider for Assam): exact count **15 / 77,657 = 0.019315708822128075%**.
  Top-5 `language_group` distribution for context (full 14-category breakdown,
  sums to 77,657): indo_aryan **43,469** (55.9704%), sanskritic **30,916**
  (39.8130%), *(blank/NULL)* **1,780** (2.2920%), southeast_asian **1,122**
  (1.4449%), tai **211** (0.2717%). tibeto_burman (this entry's 15) ranks 10th of
  14 distinct values found; the remaining categories are south_asian_unclassified
  69, arabic 22, austroasiatic 17, armenian 16, **tibetic 12** (matches r3-b1-19's
  tradition='tibetan' total exactly), iranic 4, dravidian 3, andamanese_nicobarese 1.
- **r3-b1-38** (islamic-tradition share — exact count, the armed kill side):
  **28 / 77,657 = 0.03605598980130574%**. 20 distinct institutions hold these 28
  records; top by holdings: Kalakhetra,Guwahati 3; Nalia Mosque 3; Mujibur Rahman
  Choudhary 3; Usha Sahariah 2; Jama Mazid (Nankar Gaon) 2; the remaining 15
  institutions hold 1 record each.
- **r3-b1-31** (sanskritic vs indo_aryan exact counts): sanskritic = **30,916**;
  indo_aryan = **43,469**; ratio (sanskritic/indo_aryan) = **0.711219489751317**.
- **r3-b1-33** (holdings-weighted non-Latin share; >0, so top non-Latin
  institutions with max-codepoint evidence follow): holdings-weighted =
  **1 / 77,657 = 0.0012877139214752052%**; distinct-institution-weighted =
  **1 / 4,986 = 0.020056157240272765%**. The one non-Latin institution: `श्री
  दिगम्बर जैन मंदिर` (Devanagari; transliterates to "Shri Digambar Jain Mandir", a
  Jain temple name), 1 record, max codepoint **2381**. Unicode spot-check (top-15
  Assam institutions by max codepoint, same method the J&K leg used): every other
  institution in the top 15 tops out at codepoint **122** (ASCII `z`, ordinary
  Latin text) — e.g. Sri Sri Natun Chamaguri Satra(Sri Hem Chandra Gosvami\Diz) 29
  records, Shri Shri Dakhin Pat Satra(Utpal Das\Diz) 652 records, Lankeswar
  Bezbaruah 276 records — confirming the classifier result is not an artifact and
  that Assam's Vaishnavite/Satra-tradition institution names are catalogued in
  romanized form.

---

## 3. Anomalous / notable values (stated neutrally)

**r3-b1-28 — the named directional decider measures inside its ceiling, not past
it.** The registration text names Assam as "predicted to break this" 0.5%
tibeto_burman-share ceiling (registration §2, pinned instrument b's own note: "Max
West Bengal 0.1308% ... mildly consistent with the Assam-adjacency mechanism ahead
of that live holdout test"). The measured value is **0.0193%** — inside the ceiling
by 0.4807pp (96.14% relative margin), i.e. in the same low range as most training
states (comparable to Bihar 0.0031%, Karnataka 0.0058%) rather than elevated toward
or past West Bengal's training-highest 0.1308%. The full language_group
distribution (§2) shows the bulk of Assam's records classified indo_aryan (55.97%)
and sanskritic (39.81%) rather than tibeto_burman; adjacent categories
southeast_asian (1,122) and tai (211) are present in the distribution but are
distinct `language_group` values from tibeto_burman under the current classifier.
Reported as a value, not an adjudication.

**r3-b1-31 — sanskritic/indo_aryan ratio falls below 1, patterning with training's
sole exception.** Measured ratio **0.7112** (sanskritic_n 30,916 < indo_aryan_n
43,469) places Assam on the same side of the implied breakeven as Odisha (training's
only ratio<1 state, 0.4462) and the opposite side from the other 10 training states
and from J&K (ratio 20.60). Per the registration's own §7 annotation on this
conjecture's kill-condition wording ("2 or more of {Gujarat, J&K, Assam}"): Gujarat
left the batch before registration and J&K already patterned non-exception, so a
single remaining state's value cannot complete a 2-of-3 count under the literal
frozen wording. This value is therefore recorded here as informative and is
excluded from §1's near-threshold/outside-band tallies (matching how r3-b1-33's
context-only distance is treated), consistent with the registration text itself,
not an adjudication made in this document.

**r3-b1-33 — one non-Latin institution name, versus zero in J&K.** J&K measured
exactly 0/700 non-Latin institutions; Assam measures 1/4,986 (a single Devanagari
institution name, `श्री दिगम्बर जैन मंदिर`, 1 record). Both values sit far below the
training range's non-belt minimum (Tamil Nadu, 0.1645%), so the qualitative reading
(Assam patterns non-belt-low, same as J&K) is unchanged by this single record. The
one non-Latin name has no islamic-tradition/tibeto_burman-language_group
association evident from the record itself; it is a standalone data point.

**"Kalakhetra,Guwahati" recurs across categories.** This institution is Assam's
top holding institution overall (16,635 records, r3-b1-02/-11), and also appears
among both the tibetan-tradition institutions (§2, r3-b1-19 context: 1 record) and
the islamic-tradition institutions (§2, r3-b1-38 context: 3 records) — consistent
with it being a large general-purpose repository (name suggests a state arts/culture
institution in Guwahati) rather than a tradition-specific one. Reported as a raw
observation.

**r3-b1-25 / r3-b1-23 — routing-basis and tradition counts coincide exactly.** The
`no_language_or_script_evidence` routing-basis count (1,569) exactly equals the
`tradition='unclassified'` count (1,569) for Assam — for this state the two
measures pick out the identical row set, unlike J&K where they differed (372
unclassified vs 358 no-evidence-basis). Noted as a value-level observation, not
further interpreted.

No other measured value fell outside its registered band, and no other value
showed classifier or data-quality irregularities on inspection.

---

## 4. Equivalence check (batched temp-table form vs verbatim-standalone form)

Per the task's efficiency clause, all 31 entries ran against session-temp tables
(`namami4`: 77,657 rows, `SELECT id, raw, tradition, date_precision, extent_leaves,
date_start FROM scriptome_manuscriptrecord WHERE source_id=51 AND
raw->>'holding_state_id'='4'` — scoped to state 4 only, structurally unable to
touch any other state's content; plus a derived institution-grain temp table
`inst_ranked4`). **6 of the 31** (exceeding the ≥5 requirement) were additionally
re-run in fully verbatim-standalone form directly against
`scriptome_manuscriptrecord`, with no temp table involved:

| ID | Batched result | Standalone result | Identical? | Batched (s) | Standalone (s) |
|---|---|---|:---:|---:|---:|
| r3-b1-01 | unknown=77,657 | unknown=77,657 | Yes | 0.329 | 18.212 |
| r3-b1-15 | 4,986 | 4,986 | Yes | 0.006 | 131.615 |
| r3-b1-19 | Nakunia Budha Mandir, 9 | Nakunia Budha Mandir, 9 | Yes | 0.004 | 1.450 |
| r3-b1-31 | 30,916 / 43,469 | 30,916 / 43,469 | Yes | 0.140 | 16.374 |
| r3-b1-33 | non_latin=1/77,657; distinct 1/4,986 | non_latin=1/77,657; distinct 1/4,986 | Yes | 0.167 | 46.229 |
| r3-b1-38 | 28 / 77,657 | 28 / 77,657 | Yes | 0.120 | 14.668 |

**All 6 identical.** The standalone forms took 10×–940× longer than the batched
forms (heaviest: r3-b1-15's plain `COUNT(DISTINCT ...)`, 131.6s standalone vs
0.006s batched), because they scan the full ~6.6M-row base table rather than the
pre-filtered 77,657-row temp table — the same efficiency pattern the J&K leg
showed, not a discrepancy.

Temp-table build cost (one-time, amortized across the 31 batched queries):
`namami4` create 28.198s, index+analyze 0.950s; `inst_ranked4` create+analyze
0.358s. Total setup ≈29.5s; sum of the 31 batched-form query times ≈6.13s.

---

## 5. Entries skipped (per task instruction)

| ID | Reason |
|---|---|
| r3-b1-03 | cross-source-only, no per-state clause |
| r3-b1-04 | whole-source (korcis), no per-state clause |
| r3-b1-05 | whole-source (ContainedText density), no per-state clause |
| r3-b1-06 | whole-source (FANKHA), no per-state clause |
| r3-b1-07 | whole-corpus (SfarData scribe attestation), no per-state clause |
| r3-b1-09 | per-source (not per-state), no NAMAMI/state component |
| r3-b1-18 | tail-UT-only by construction; not decided by Assam |

(r3-b1-22 and r3-b1-39 are outside the registered 38 entirely — killed at triage,
2026-08-04, per `popper_v2_rung3_triage_20260804.md`.)

---

## 6. Files

- `docs/generated/popper_v2_rung3_validation_as_values.json` — machine-readable
  form: one entry per conjecture (id, frozen_query_as_run, values, band, distance,
  near_threshold, runtime_s), plus sanity/equivalence/methodology blocks.
- This file — human-readable compact table + notes.

No git commit made (per task instruction — deliverables only).
