---
conjecture: r3-b1-16
family: grok
model: "Grok 4.5 expert (chat paste-back via orchestrator window)"
received: 2026-08-06
template: PROMPT_TEMPLATE_v1.md sha256 4344aabfacfe88362c56d89b6c89d594a7bf3a221e18a16b0e351482447e512f
rivals_parsed: 2
---

{
  "rivals": [
    {
      "mechanism": "The observed density ceiling is an artifact of the NAMAMI portal's own institution-name normalization and deduplication practices: free-text holding-institution strings are collapsed or standardized in a way that systematically limits the number of distinct strings recognized per state, producing densities that never exceed the registered ceiling regardless of the true underlying institutional landscape.",
      "why_it_explains_the_same_evidence": "If the portal's string-cleaning or authority-control layer merges many small or variant institution names into fewer canonical forms, every state's harvested density will stay below 103 per 1,000 (as seen in the training range 1.10-51.60 and all holdouts), even if the real number of distinct collecting bodies is higher; the rejection of a pure scale effect would still hold under this artifact.",
      "named_confounds": ["cataloguing or data-entry practice for institution names", "administrative name-normalization artifact", "unit-of-count or string-deduplication effect"],
      "discriminating_test": {
        "description": "Extract the raw, un-normalized holding-institution strings (before any portal or harvester cleaning) for a sample of high-density and low-density states and recompute distinct-institution density using only exact string matches versus using fuzzy or authority-controlled matching; measure whether the cleaned density stays under the ceiling while the raw density exceeds it in some states.",
        "computable_on_held_data": true,
        "what_result_favors_rival": "If raw un-normalized densities exceed 103 per 1,000 in one or more states while cleaned densities remain under the ceiling, this favors the rival (normalization artifact); if both raw and cleaned stay under the ceiling, this favors the proposed local-collecting-culture mechanism."
      }
    },
    {
      "mechanism": "Institution density is capped by the practical limits of the portal's state-faceted data-entry and harvesting interface itself: only institutions that have been formally registered or that appear in a pre-existing authority list for that state can be attached to records, so the number of distinct names per 1,000 records cannot exceed a soft administrative ceiling around 100.",
      "why_it_explains_the_same_evidence": "A hard or soft limit on how many institution entities the portal permits per state facet would keep every complete state's density inside the registered ceiling of 103, matching both the training maximum of 51.60 and all holdout outcomes, independent of real collecting culture.",
      "named_confounds": ["administrative or geographic classification artifact", "portal entity-registration limits"],
      "discriminating_test": {
        "description": "Identify any official institution authority list or registration table maintained by the portal and count the number of distinct institutions authorized for each state; compare that authorized count (scaled per 1,000 records) against the observed density. Also examine whether new institutions appear only after formal registration events.",
        "computable_on_held_data": false,
        "what_result_favors_rival": "If the authorized-institution counts per state, when scaled, sit near or below the 103 ceiling and observed densities track the authorized counts rather than independent field surveys of collections, this favors the rival; if observed densities can exceed authorized counts or track independent surveys, this favors the proposed culture mechanism."
      }
    }
  ],
  "no_viable_rival": false,
  "notes": ""
}
