# Popper V2 rung-3 -- AUTONOMOUS validation, Punjab (machine-run)

**Date:** 2026-08-05. **Batch:** `r3-b1`. **Holdout state:** Punjab (NAMAMI `state_id`='28'). Decision floor: complete=True, reconciled=100.0%. Generated by `run_popper_validation` -- read-only, no writes, no git.

**30 of the registered conjectures carry a per-state `frozen_query`** and were run against this state. Skipped:

| ID | Reason |
|---|---|
| r3-b1-03 | no per-state clause (cross-source/whole-corpus comparator, or tail-UT-only) |
| r3-b1-04 | no per-state clause (cross-source/whole-corpus comparator, or tail-UT-only) |
| r3-b1-05 | no per-state clause (cross-source/whole-corpus comparator, or tail-UT-only) |
| r3-b1-06 | no per-state clause (cross-source/whole-corpus comparator, or tail-UT-only) |
| r3-b1-07 | no per-state clause (cross-source/whole-corpus comparator, or tail-UT-only) |
| r3-b1-09 | no per-state clause (cross-source/whole-corpus comparator, or tail-UT-only) |
| r3-b1-18 | no per-state clause (cross-source/whole-corpus comparator, or tail-UT-only) |
| r3-b1-28 | already holdout-killed (registration §7 Validation event 2 -- Assam (2026-08-05)); registration §7 events 1-2 |

---

## Machine verdicts

| Verdict | Count |
|---|---:|
| CONTEXT-ONLY | 1 |
| KILL-CANDIDATE | 2 |
| REQUIRES-RE-DERIVATION | 2 |
| SURVIVES-LEG | 25 |

## Compact value table

| ID | Band | Measured | Distance | Relative | Near-threshold | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|:---:|---|
| r3-b1-01 | ceiling: NAMAMI dated-fraction < 1% per state; direction: >=1 order of magnitude below every comparator | {"date_precision_breakdown": {"unknown": 13839}, "dated_fraction_pct": 0.0, "filtered_total_rows": 13839, "rows_excluded_by_amendment": 0} | 1.0 | 1.0 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-02 | ceiling 40% (NAMAMI states and clean comparators alike) | {"institution": "Vishveshvaranand Vishav Bandhu Institute of Sanskrit And Indological Studies", "n": 2813, "pct": 20.326613194594984} | 19.673386805405016 | 0.4918346701351254 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-08 | ceiling 1% per state (training) | {"populated": 0, "total": 13839, "pct": 0.0} | 1.0 | 1.0 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-10 | ceiling 92% | {"top12_cum_pct": 91.55285786545271} | 0.4471421345472919 | 0.004860240592905346 | True | REQUIRES-RE-DERIVATION |
| r3-b1-11 | ceiling 40% | {"institution": null, "n": 2813, "pct": 20.326613194594984} | 19.673386805405016 | 0.4918346701351254 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-12 | ceiling 75% | {"top3_cum_pct": 49.56282968422574} | 25.43717031577426 | 0.33916227087699014 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-13 | ceiling 1500 | {"hhi12": 1107.0291432413785} | 392.9708567586215 | 0.26198057117241436 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-14 | ceiling 20 | {"top1_top2_ratio": 1.2518914107699155} | 18.748108589230085 | 0.9374054294615043 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-15 | floor 50 | {"distinct_institutes": 63} | 13.0 | 0.26 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-16 | ceiling 103 per 1000 | {"n": 13839, "distinct_inst": 63, "density_per_1000": 4.552352048558422} | 98.44764795144158 | 0.9558024072955493 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-17 | [-3.0, -0.3] | {"npoints": 63, "slope": -2.6883280011016017, "se": 0.10391254186428187, "r2": 0.9164740483592868} | 0.31167199889839825 | 0.10389066629946608 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-19 | threshold 53,727 (frozen as minted) | {"top_tibetan_institution": "Punjab State Archieves", "top_tibetan_institution_count": 1, "state_total_tibetan_tradition_rows": 1} | 53726.0 | 0.9999813873843691 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-20 | floor 6 | {"distinct_script_groups": 7} | 1.0 | 0.16666666666666666 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-21 | floor 20% | {"sanskrit_n": 12835, "total": 13839, "pct": 92.74514054483706} | 72.74514054483706 | 3.6372570272418527 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-23 | ceiling 45% | {"unclassified_n": 75, "total": 13839, "pct": 0.5419466724474312} | 44.45805332755257 | 0.9879567406122793 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-24 | ceiling 35% | {"n": 0, "total": 13839, "pct": 0.0} | 35.0 | 1.0 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-25 | ceiling 15% | {"n": 75, "total": 13839, "pct": 0.5419466724474312} | 14.45805332755257 | 0.963870221836838 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-26 | ceiling 2% | {"n": 9, "total": 13839, "pct": 0.06503360069369174} | 1.9349663993063082 | 0.9674831996531541 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-27 | ceiling 0.1% | {"n": 0, "total": 13839, "pct": 0.0} | 0.1 | 1.0 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-29 | >75% in belt AND <15% outside belt | {"n": 224, "total": 13839, "pct": 1.6186140617096612} | 13.38138593829034 | 0.8920923958860226 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-30 | >20% in belt AND <5% outside belt | {"n": 1, "total": 13839, "pct": 0.007225955632632415} | 4.992774044367367 | 0.9985548088734735 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-31 | exactly one exception (Odisha) among the 11 training states | {"sanskritic_n": 6098, "indo_aryan_n": 6869, "sanskritic_over_indo_aryan_ratio": 0.8877565875673314} | -0.11224341243266855 | -0.11224341243266855 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-32 | floor 35% | {"basis": "language_facet_south_asian", "n": 12826, "total": 13839, "pct": 92.68010694414336} | 57.68010694414336 | 1.6480030555469531 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-33 | belt (Bihar/MP/Rajasthan) substantially and cleanly separated above non-belt (Karnataka/Kerala/Maharashtra/Odisha/TN/HP); contradiction (no clean separation) kills at compile | {"non_latin_holdings": 1221, "total_holdings": 13839, "holdings_weighted_non_latin_pct": 8.82289182744418, "non_latin_distinct": 2, "total_distinct": 63, "distinct_non_latin_pct": 3.1746031746031744} | None | None | False | CONTEXT-ONLY |
| r3-b1-34 | exact zero (integrity check, not a statistical band) | {"bad_count": 0, "total": 13839, "bad_share_pct": 0.0} | 0 | None | n/a (exact-zero band; relative margin undefined, see distance) | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-35 | exact zero (integrity check) | {"bad_count": 0, "filtered_total": 13839, "bad_share_pct": 0.0, "rows_excluded_by_amendment": 0} | 0 | None | n/a (exact-zero band; relative margin undefined, see distance) | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-36 | [0.15%, 1.2%] | {"n": 13839, "distinct_subj": 416, "density_pct": 3.0059975431750847} | -1.8059975431750848 | -1.504997952645904 | False | KILL-CANDIDATE |
| r3-b1-37 | [30, 160] | {"distinct_language_count": 31} | 1.0 | 0.03333333333333333 | True | REQUIRES-RE-DERIVATION |
| r3-b1-38 | >10% in {UP, Bihar} AND <2% elsewhere | {"islamic_n": 928, "total": 13839, "pct": 6.705686827082881} | -4.705686827082881 | -2.3528434135414407 | False | KILL-CANDIDATE |
| r3-b1-40 | ceiling 0.5% | {"populated": 0, "total": 13839, "pct": 0.0} | 0.5 | 1.0 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |

## Equivalence check (batched temp-table form vs. verbatim-standalone form)

**All identical: True** (5 entries checked: r3-b1-01, r3-b1-15, r3-b1-19, r3-b1-31, r3-b1-33).

No git commit made. This file and its `.json` twin are machine-generated values-only output; the corresponding `_draft_entry.md` carries the machine verdicts in registration §7 entry format, pending orchestrator countersign.
