---
conjecture: r2-edh-b1-19
family: grok
model: "Grok 4.5 expert (chat paste-back via orchestrator window)"
received: 2026-08-06
template: PROMPT_TEMPLATE_v1.md sha256 4344aabfacfe88362c56d89b6c89d594a7bf3a221e18a16b0e351482447e512f
rivals_parsed: 2
note: "r1's denominator test computable — and interlocks with conjecture 20's own coverage data (untyped shares ARE 20's subject); the adjudication should exploit that."
---

{
"rivals": [
{
"mechanism": "Only inscriptions for which a monument type can be assigned with reasonable confidence receive a type designation in EDH; the most ambiguous pieces are left untyped and therefore excluded from the denominator of monument-typed rows, so the rate of flagged uncertainty among the remaining typed rows stays artificially low.",
"why_it_explains_the_same_evidence": "This filtering of the denominator is a uniform cataloguing practice applied to the entire fixed EDH collection, so every province that meets the 100-typed-row threshold exhibits an uncertain rate well below 25 percent in both the alphabetical training half and the holdout half.",
"named_confounds": [
"unit-of-count / denominator effect (untyped rows excluded)",
"selection of what receives a monument-type assignment",
"cataloguing practice that withholds type labels from ambiguous pieces"
],
"discriminating_test": {
"description": "Recompute the uncertain rate after treating every untyped row as an additional uncertain identification, and also report the share of untyped rows per province; compare both quantities against the original typed-only rate.",
"computable_on_held_data": true,
"what_result_favors_rival": "If including the untyped rows as uncertain pushes the rate above 25 percent for multiple provinces, or if untyped shares themselves are substantial, the result favours the denominator-selection mechanism over a genuine material ceiling on uncertainty."
}
},
{
"mechanism": "Epigraphers working with EDH source material follow a conservative disciplinary convention that assigns a most-likely monument type whenever a plausible identification exists and reserves the formal uncertain flag for only the clearest cases of irreducible ambiguity; this editorial restraint, rather than any intrinsic limit on the material, keeps flagged rates low across provinces.",
"why_it_explains_the_same_evidence": "The same flagging convention is applied uniformly to the fixed catalogue, producing uncertain rates that remain under 25 percent for every eligible province in both the training and holdout alphabetical halves.",
"named_confounds": [
"editorial convention for monument-type flagging",
"data-entry practice that prefers definite assignment over uncertainty flags",
"cataloguing reluctance to leave types unassigned"
],
"discriminating_test": {
"description": "Have an independent team re-classify a stratified sample of the same EDH monument-typed rows under an explicit instruction to flag uncertainty more liberally whenever alternative types remain possible; recompute the uncertain rate under the new policy and compare province-level maxima.",
"computable_on_held_data": false,
"what_result_favors_rival": "If the re-classification produces uncertain rates that substantially exceed 25 percent in several provinces while the original EDH flags remain low, the result favours conservative editorial practice over an intrinsic ceiling on material uncertainty."
}
}
],
"no_viable_rival": false,
"notes": ""
}
