---
conjecture: r3-b1-01
family: grok
model: "Grok 4.5 expert (chat paste-back via orchestrator window)"
received: 2026-08-06
template: PROMPT_TEMPLATE_v1.md sha256 4344aabfacfe88362c56d89b6c89d594a7bf3a221e18a16b0e351482447e512f
rivals_parsed: 2
---

{
  "rivals": [
    {
      "mechanism": "The underlying records in the NAMAMI portal database lack any date metadata for holdings across all states because contributing institutions uniformly omit chronological information from their data feeds, rather than the list-page enumeration schema failing to parse an existing date column.",
      "why_it_explains_the_same_evidence": "If date fields are simply absent from the portal's source data for every state, then any harvest of list pages will record 100% date_precision='unknown' for the training states and identically for the holdout states, matching the observed pattern without requiring a parsing omission specific to the list schema.",
      "named_confounds": ["source-institution cataloguing practice", "data-entry completeness in portal database feeds"],
      "discriminating_test": {
        "description": "Access individual manuscript detail pages or any richer per-record view (or official bulk metadata export) for a stratified sample of records from several training and holdout states and inspect whether a date or date_precision field is populated in those detailed records. Measure the dated fraction in the detail views versus the list harvests.",
        "computable_on_held_data": false,
        "what_result_favors_rival": "If dates remain absent even in detail views and official exports, this favors the rival (true data absence); if dates appear in details but were missing from list enumerations, this favors the proposed harvest-parse mechanism."
      }
    },
    {
      "mechanism": "A portal-wide technical or policy configuration suppresses or blanks the date field for all state-faceted list outputs, independent of whether the enumeration schema is designed to parse a date column.",
      "why_it_explains_the_same_evidence": "A uniform suppression applied at the portal level to every state's list view would force 0% dated records in both the 11 training states and the 9 holdout states, reproducing the exact training and holdout pattern regardless of the harvester's parsing logic.",
      "named_confounds": ["portal software configuration artifact", "administrative data-suppression policy"],
      "discriminating_test": {
        "description": "Compare the harvested list-page fields against any official NAMAMI API, bulk download, or non-list interface that exposes the same records; compute the dated fraction in those alternative access methods for the same states.",
        "computable_on_held_data": false,
        "what_result_favors_rival": "If official alternative interfaces also show 0% dated records across the same states, this favors the rival (portal-wide suppression); if they show higher dated fractions, this favors the proposed list-page parsing omission."
      }
    }
  ],
  "no_viable_rival": false,
  "notes": ""
}
