---
conjecture: r3-b1-32
family: grok
model: "Grok 4.5 expert (chat paste-back via orchestrator window)"
received: 2026-08-06
template: PROMPT_TEMPLATE_v1.md sha256 4344aabfacfe88362c56d89b6c89d594a7bf3a221e18a16b0e351482447e512f
rivals_parsed: 2
---

{
"rivals": [
{
"mechanism": "Most complete states are dominated by a single broad tradition (or a small cluster of closely related ones) in their actual holdings; the routing instrument therefore assigns the large majority of records to one plurality pathway, and the observed floor of 35% simply reflects that underlying dominance rather than any intrinsic limit on how fragmented the instrument's basis assignment can become.",
"why_it_explains_the_same_evidence": "If the holdings themselves are rarely split evenly across three or more distinct traditions, the plurality pathway will exceed 35% (and usually far more) in every state; the single training state that reaches only 40.62% is the most evenly mixed case yet still retains a clear plurality, and all holdouts likewise stay above the floor, matching the data without requiring a calibrated fragmentation ceiling on the instrument.",
"named_confounds": ["underlying distribution of traditions in holdings", "selection effects in what got catalogued", "geographic concentration of dominant traditions"],
"discriminating_test": {
"description": "For the most fragmented training state and several high-plurality states, recompute the pathway shares after collapsing the six basis values into coarser tradition groups (e.g., South-Asian vs Tibetan vs other) and after expanding them with any available secondary cues. Measure whether the plurality share remains high primarily because of one dominant tradition group rather than because the instrument refuses to fragment.",
"computable_on_held_data": true,
"what_result_favors_rival": "If the high plurality shares collapse or the rank order of states changes substantially once pathways are re-grouped by broader tradition, indicating that the floor is an artifact of tradition dominance rather than instrument logic, this favors the rival; if plurality shares stay high and stable under alternative groupings, this favors the proposed instrument-fragmentation floor."
}
},
{
"mechanism": "Several of the instrument's six possible pathways are intrinsically low-volume by the nature of the source data and the instrument's own decision rules (as evidenced by multiple rare-pathway conjectures); with only two or three pathways ever carrying substantial volume, the plurality pathway is mathematically unlikely to fall below 35% unless a state produces an unusually even split between its two largest pathways, which has not occurred in any complete state.",
"why_it_explains_the_same_evidence": "When only a subset of the six pathways are ever large, the plurality share is automatically elevated; the training minimum of 40.62% is the closest approach to an even two-way split yet still clears 35%, and every holdout remains comfortably above the floor for the same structural reason, without any need for a specially calibrated fragmentation ceiling.",
"named_confounds": ["intrinsic volume imbalance among routing pathways", "decision-rule rarity of certain basis values", "unit-of-count effect from low-volume pathways"],
"discriminating_test": {
"description": "Rank the six pathways by volume within each complete state and compute the cumulative share of the top two versus the remaining four; also simulate the plurality share under a counterfactual in which the currently rare pathways are artificially boosted to the volume of the second-largest pathway. Measure how often the plurality would fall below 35% under that counterfactual.",
"computable_on_held_data": true,
"what_result_favors_rival": "If the top two pathways already account for the great majority of records in every state and boosting the rare pathways would push several states below 35%, this favors the rival (intrinsic pathway imbalance); if the six pathways are more evenly capable of carrying volume and the floor still holds under the simulation, this favors the proposed instrument-fragmentation ceiling."
}
}
],
"no_viable_rival": false,
"notes": ""
}
