# Grok pack — Popper Engine adversarial-rivals stage, Family B

**Status:** PRIMARY deliverable for this run (Family A / Codex is deferred —
see `MANIFEST.md`). Built 2026-08-06. Template: `PROMPT_TEMPLATE_v1.md`,
SHA-256 `4344aabfacfe88362c56d89b6c89d594a7bf3a221e18a16b0e351482447e512f`.

This pack contains 43 fully self-contained paste blocks, one per surviving
conjecture from batches r3-b1 (24 items) and r2-edh-b1 (19 items). Each block
is the frozen prompt template with that one conjecture's evidence spliced in
— nothing else needed, no other file to open while pasting.

## Operator instructions

1. **One block, one fresh Grok conversation.** For every block below, start a
   **new, empty Grok conversation** (not just a new message in an existing
   chat) and paste the entire block — from the `####...` open line to the
   matching `####...` close line — as your first and only message. A fresh
   conversation per block is what keeps the items independent: nothing about
   any other conjecture, or how close any result came to its own pass/fail
   line, should ever be visible to Grok while it works a given item. Do not
   paste two blocks into the same conversation, even back to back.
2. **Drop each reply in as plain text.** Copy Grok's full reply — the raw
   text, exactly as it answered, with no edits — into a new file at the path
   printed at the end of that block. In short: every reply for an `r3-b1-*`
   item goes in `docs/generated/popper_rivals/r3-b1/grok/<id>.md`, and every
   reply for an `r2-edh-b1-*` item goes in
   `docs/generated/popper_rivals/r2-edh-b1/grok/<id>.md`. Both drop folders
   already exist on disk (`r3-b1/grok/` and `r2-edh-b1/grok/` under this same
   `popper_rivals/` directory) — just save the file there, no setup needed.
   If Grok's reply is not valid JSON (stray prose, a code fence, a refusal),
   save it anyway, verbatim — the adjudication pass needs to see exactly
   what came back, format failures included.
3. **Order doesn't matter; skipping is fine.** The 43 blocks are independent
   of each other and of the order they're run in. If Grok fails or refuses
   on one, save whatever it returned (or a note that it refused) and move on
   to the next block — do not retry more than once or improvise a different
   prompt.
4. **Don't edit the blocks.** The wrapping instructions are frozen (same
   template, byte-for-byte, as `PROMPT_TEMPLATE_v1.md`); only the evidence
   section differs block to block. If something in a block looks wrong,
   flag it for the orchestrator rather than hand-editing it — a hand-edited
   block is no longer using the frozen template.

## Where the 43 blocks live

The blocks are split across four part files so no single file is unwieldy.
Within each part file, blocks are separated by `####...` cut-lines carrying
the conjecture id — search for `CONJECTURE <id>` to jump to one directly.

| Part file | Batch | Items | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| `GROK_PACK_20260806_part1.md` | r3-b1 (NAMAMI / India) | 1–12 of 24 | 12 |
| `GROK_PACK_20260806_part2.md` | r3-b1 (NAMAMI / India) | 13–24 of 24 | 12 |
| `GROK_PACK_20260806_part3.md` | r2-edh-b1 (EDH / Roman inscriptions) | 1–10 of 19 | 10 |
| `GROK_PACK_20260806_part4.md` | r2-edh-b1 (EDH / Roman inscriptions) | 11–19 of 19 | 9 |

## Index — all 43 items

Claims are condensed to one line for navigation only; the actual paste block
carries the full evidence (claim, mechanism, scope, training values, holdout
values). "Reply saved?" is left blank for the operator to check off.

### r3-b1 (NAMAMI / India), 24 items — `GROK_PACK_20260806_part1.md` + `part2.md`

| id | one-line claim | reply saved? |
|---|---|---|
| r3-b1-01 | NAMAMI's dated-fraction stays under 1% training-wide; ≥1 order of magnitude below every other landed source | |
| r3-b1-03 | Binding-waste fragment collections converge on a mean date distinct from (and later than) Genizah fragments | |
| r3-b1-04 | Korea's medium_class mix (manuscript/woodblock/movable_type/unknown) is stable within ±10pp as the source grows | |
| r3-b1-05 | ContainedText-per-manuscript density is source-specific (Byzantine ≫ Perso-Arabic > English-catalogue ≈ 1:1-by-construction) | |
| r3-b1-06 | Iran's FANKHA has materially lower institutional-attribution completeness than every other large source, stably so | |
| r3-b1-07 | SfarData's ≥2-scribe-attestation share is a stable structural baseline ([3%,9%]) as the corpus grows | |
| r3-b1-08 | NAMAMI's leaf-count field is populated under 1% vs. a comparator's large majority (harvest-method, not extent, claim) | |
| r3-b1-09 | Exact-dating rate is source-specific, but each source's own rate is stable (±15pp) as it grows | |
| r3-b1-16 | Distinct-institution density never exceeds 103/1,000 records in any complete NAMAMI state | |
| r3-b1-17 | Institution-holdings rank–count log–log slope stays in [-3.0,-0.3] (heavy-tailed shape) in every complete state | |
| r3-b1-18 | At least one small single-city holdout UT beats every large state's top-1 institution share (25.49%) | |
| r3-b1-19 | No holdout institution beats the training exemplar's top Tibetan institution (~53,700 records) unless it's itself a Tibetan-exile center | |
| r3-b1-21 | The sanskrit-tradition umbrella exceeds 20% of records in every complete NAMAMI state | |
| r3-b1-23 | Routing abstention (unclassified tradition) never exceeds 45% of records in any complete state | |
| r3-b1-24 | The "unrecognised evidence" routing curation-gap basis never exceeds 35% of a complete state's records | |
| r3-b1-25 | The genuinely-blank-field routing basis never exceeds 15% of a complete state's records | |
| r3-b1-26 | The script-only routing basis never exceeds 2% of a complete state's records | |
| r3-b1-27 | The rarest routing basis (script overrides language facet) never exceeds 0.1% of a complete state's records | |
| r3-b1-31 | Sanskritic language-group outnumbers vernacular indo_aryan in every complete state except one | |
| r3-b1-32 | The single most common routing basis accounts for ≥35% of records in every complete state | |
| r3-b1-33 | Non-Latin institution-name share is cleanly higher in Hindi-belt states than non-belt states (not a Devanagari-script artifact) | |
| r3-b1-34 | A holdings-vs-origin integrity flag is set correctly on 100% of records in every complete state | |
| r3-b1-35 | date_precision equals 'unknown' on 100% of records in every complete state (exact-zero claim) | |
| r3-b1-40 | The leaf-count field is populated on under 0.5% of records in every complete state (India-only ceiling) | |

### r2-edh-b1 (EDH / Roman inscriptions), 19 items — `GROK_PACK_20260806_part3.md` + `part4.md`

| id | one-line claim | reply saved? |
|---|---|---|
| r2-edh-b1-01 | The top-5 holdout provinces hold ≥45% of the 32-province holdout total | |
| r2-edh-b1-02 | No single holdout province holds ≥30% of the 32-province holdout total | |
| r2-edh-b1-03 | The training slice's heavy-tailed province-size shape (≥12/32 under 300, ≥5/32 at 1,000+) recurs in holdout | |
| r2-edh-b1-04 | Province date-coverage is heterogeneous: ≥1 province under 35% dated AND ≥1 over 95% dated | |
| r2-edh-b1-06 | Exact-precision dating stays at or under 40% of dated rows in every eligible province | |
| r2-edh-b1-07 | Genre diversity is ≥8 distinct inscription types in every eligible province | |
| r2-edh-b1-08 | Material diversity is ≥5 distinct material values in every eligible province | |
| r2-edh-b1-09 | Epitaph/votive inscription is the plurality genre in ≥85% of eligible large provinces | |
| r2-edh-b1-11 | At least one of two named upper-Danube provinces shows instrumentum domesticum ≥10% (frontier-military pattern) | |
| r2-edh-b1-12 | At least one of the same two named provinces carries ≥3 military-diploma finds | |
| r2-edh-b1-13 | Latin-West provinces under 5% non-Latin language share; Greek-East provinces ≥5% (the Jireček-line divide) | |
| r2-edh-b1-14 | The busiest century is the 1st/2nd c. AD in every eligible province except one named exception | |
| r2-edh-b1-16 | ≥90% of a province's dated rows fall within a 6-century window around its own peak century | |
| r2-edh-b1-18 | Bracket-density (lost/restored text marking) stays ≥35% in every eligible province | |
| r2-edh-b1-19 | '?'-suffixed uncertain monument-type IDs stay under 25% of monument-typed rows in every eligible province | |
| r2-edh-b1-20 | Monument-type documentation coverage is heterogeneous: ≥1 province under 30% AND ≥1 over 90% | |
| r2-edh-b1-23 | One named northern-Italian province shows an elevated stele share (≥20%), matching a single training exemplar | |
| r2-edh-b1-24 | Average resolved date-range width stays within 20–250 years in every eligible province | |
| r2-edh-b1-25 | Photographic-documentation coverage is heterogeneous: ≥1 province over 40% no-image AND ≥1 under 3% | |

## After the pack is worked

Once replies are dropped into the two `grok/` folders, the orchestrator (or
a follow-on lane) parses each as JSON, adjudicates per
`docs/DESIGN_POPPER_RIVALS_STAGE_20260806.md` §3 (RIVAL-REFUTED-ON-HELD-DATA
/ RIVAL-LIVE / RIVAL-DEFECTIVE), and rolls the results into the mechanism-
grade table called for in §4. This pack's own job ends at "reply saved
verbatim" — no adjudication happens here.
