---
conjecture: r2-edh-b1-08
family: grok
model: "Grok 4.5 expert (chat paste-back via orchestrator window)"
received: 2026-08-06
template: PROMPT_TEMPLATE_v1.md sha256 4344aabfacfe88362c56d89b6c89d594a7bf3a221e18a16b0e351482447e512f
rivals_parsed: 2
note: "Second presentation (first round returned a rewording of 07's answer — 07 block pasted twice). Same sampling-simulation rival family as 07; both tests computable."
---

{
"rivals": [
{
"mechanism": "EDH's material vocabulary is heavily skewed toward a small core of frequent materials (marble, limestone, bronze, etc.), so any province that reaches the 50-row eligibility threshold will almost automatically accumulate at least 5 distinct materials by cumulative sampling of those common categories, without requiring a substantive diversity floor in the underlying epigraphic material.",
"why_it_explains_the_same_evidence": "Under a skewed global material distribution the probability of observing fewer than 5 distinct materials in samples of 50 or more is extremely low; the training minimum of 7 and the holdout minimum of 8 are therefore the expected statistical outcome rather than evidence that every province's material is intrinsically diverse.",
"named_confounds": ["unit-of-count or sampling effect from a skewed vocabulary", "controlled-vocabulary frequency distribution", "eligibility threshold of 50 material-typed rows"],
"discriminating_test": {
"description": "Fit the global frequency distribution of the 118 material values across the whole corpus; simulate random draws of size equal to each eligible province's material-typed-row count and record the number of distinct materials obtained. Measure the fraction of simulations that fall below 5 distinct materials.",
"computable_on_held_data": true,
"what_result_favors_rival": "If simulations under the observed global frequencies almost never produce fewer than 5 distinct materials for samples of 50 or more, this favors the rival (sampling from a skewed vocabulary); if a non-negligible fraction of simulations fall below 5 while real provinces do not, this favors the proposed vocabulary-breadth floor."
}
},
{
"mechanism": "Provinces that clear the 50-row threshold are precisely those that received more thorough modern cataloguing of material; thorough cataloguing systematically employs a broader range of the available material labels, so the observed minima (7 in training, 8 in holdout) are an artifact of cataloguing intensity rather than of the range of materials present in the ancient objects.",
"why_it_explains_the_same_evidence": "If higher row counts correlate with more complete use of the material vocabulary by the contributors who worked on those provinces, both training and holdout provinces that meet the support threshold will display at least 5 distinct materials simply because they were catalogued more carefully, independent of any intrinsic diversity floor.",
"named_confounds": ["cataloguing or data-entry practice and intensity", "selection effects in which provinces received thorough material typing", "correlation between volume and vocabulary breadth"],
"discriminating_test": {
"description": "Within provinces of comparable size, identify subsets of records entered by different contributors or project phases if such identifiers exist; compare the number of distinct materials used by high-volume versus low-volume contributors inside the same province, and test whether diversity tracks intensity more than province identity.",
"computable_on_held_data": true,
"what_result_favors_rival": "If material diversity tracks contributor or phase intensity more strongly than province identity or raw object variety, this favors the rival (cataloguing-intensity artifact); if diversity remains high even in sparsely catalogued subsets of the same provinces, this favors the proposed real diversity floor."
}
}
],
"no_viable_rival": false,
"notes": ""
}
