# Popper V2 rung-3 -- AUTONOMOUS validation, Uttarakhand (machine-run)

**Date:** 2026-08-05. **Batch:** `r3-b1`. **Holdout state:** Uttarakhand (NAMAMI `state_id`='34'). Decision floor: complete=True, reconciled=100.0%. Generated by `run_popper_validation` -- read-only, no writes, no git.

**30 of the registered conjectures carry a per-state `frozen_query`** and were run against this state. Skipped:

| ID | Reason |
|---|---|
| r3-b1-03 | no per-state clause (cross-source/whole-corpus comparator, or tail-UT-only) |
| r3-b1-04 | no per-state clause (cross-source/whole-corpus comparator, or tail-UT-only) |
| r3-b1-05 | no per-state clause (cross-source/whole-corpus comparator, or tail-UT-only) |
| r3-b1-06 | no per-state clause (cross-source/whole-corpus comparator, or tail-UT-only) |
| r3-b1-07 | no per-state clause (cross-source/whole-corpus comparator, or tail-UT-only) |
| r3-b1-09 | no per-state clause (cross-source/whole-corpus comparator, or tail-UT-only) |
| r3-b1-18 | no per-state clause (cross-source/whole-corpus comparator, or tail-UT-only) |
| r3-b1-28 | already holdout-killed (registration §7 Validation event 2 -- Assam (2026-08-05)); registration §7 events 1-2 |

---

## Machine verdicts

| Verdict | Count |
|---|---:|
| CONTEXT-ONLY | 1 |
| KILL-CANDIDATE | 2 |
| REQUIRES-RE-DERIVATION | 1 |
| SURVIVES-LEG | 26 |

## Compact value table

| ID | Band | Measured | Distance | Relative | Near-threshold | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|:---:|---|
| r3-b1-01 | ceiling: NAMAMI dated-fraction < 1% per state; direction: >=1 order of magnitude below every comparator | {"date_precision_breakdown": {"unknown": 11964}, "dated_fraction_pct": 0.0, "filtered_total_rows": 11964, "rows_excluded_by_amendment": 0} | 1.0 | 1.0 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-02 | ceiling 40% (NAMAMI states and clean comparators alike) | {"institution": "Nakshtravedhashala", "n": 2504, "pct": 20.929455031761954} | 19.070544968238046 | 0.47676362420595114 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-08 | ceiling 1% per state (training) | {"populated": 0, "total": 11964, "pct": 0.0} | 1.0 | 1.0 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-10 | ceiling 92% | {"top12_cum_pct": 71.48110999665664} | 20.51889000334336 | 0.2230314130798191 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-11 | ceiling 40% | {"institution": null, "n": 2504, "pct": 20.929455031761954} | 19.070544968238046 | 0.47676362420595114 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-12 | ceiling 75% | {"top3_cum_pct": 38.105984620528254} | 36.894015379471746 | 0.4919202050596233 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-13 | ceiling 1500 | {"hhi12": 727.3943473125271} | 772.6056526874729 | 0.515070435124982 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-14 | ceiling 20 | {"top1_top2_ratio": 2.167965367965368} | 17.83203463203463 | 0.8916017316017315 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-15 | floor 50 | {"distinct_institutes": 183} | 133.0 | 2.66 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-16 | ceiling 103 per 1000 | {"n": 11964, "distinct_inst": 183, "density_per_1000": 15.295887662988967} | 87.70411233701103 | 0.8514962362816605 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-17 | [-3.0, -0.3] | {"npoints": 183, "slope": -1.789770096170021, "se": 0.024505381545546455, "r2": 0.9671817725454503} | 1.210229903829979 | 0.40340996794332634 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-19 | threshold 53,727 (frozen as minted) | {"top_tibetan_institution": null, "top_tibetan_institution_count": 0, "state_total_tibetan_tradition_rows": 0} | 53727.0 | 1.0 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-20 | floor 6 | {"distinct_script_groups": 6} | 0.0 | 0.0 | True | REQUIRES-RE-DERIVATION |
| r3-b1-21 | floor 20% | {"sanskrit_n": 11911, "total": 11964, "pct": 99.55700434637245} | 79.55700434637245 | 3.9778502173186228 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-23 | ceiling 45% | {"unclassified_n": 34, "total": 11964, "pct": 0.2841858910063524} | 44.71581410899365 | 0.9936847579776367 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-24 | ceiling 35% | {"n": 0, "total": 11964, "pct": 0.0} | 35.0 | 1.0 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-25 | ceiling 15% | {"n": 34, "total": 11964, "pct": 0.2841858910063524} | 14.715814108993648 | 0.9810542739329099 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-26 | ceiling 2% | {"n": 4, "total": 11964, "pct": 0.03343363423604146} | 1.9665663657639585 | 0.9832831828819792 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-27 | ceiling 0.1% | {"n": 0, "total": 11964, "pct": 0.0} | 0.1 | 1.0 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-29 | >75% in belt AND <15% outside belt | {"n": 6, "total": 11964, "pct": 0.05015045135406219} | 14.949849548645938 | 0.9966566365763959 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-30 | >20% in belt AND <5% outside belt | {"n": 0, "total": 11964, "pct": 0.0} | 5.0 | 1.0 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-31 | exactly one exception (Odisha) among the 11 training states | {"sanskritic_n": 10282, "indo_aryan_n": 1638, "sanskritic_over_indo_aryan_ratio": 6.277167277167277} | 5.277167277167277 | 5.277167277167277 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-32 | floor 35% | {"basis": "language_facet_south_asian", "n": 11907, "total": 11964, "pct": 99.5235707121364} | 64.5235707121364 | 1.8435305917753257 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-33 | belt (Bihar/MP/Rajasthan) substantially and cleanly separated above non-belt (Karnataka/Kerala/Maharashtra/Odisha/TN/HP); contradiction (no clean separation) kills at compile | {"non_latin_holdings": 477, "total_holdings": 11964, "holdings_weighted_non_latin_pct": 3.986960882647944, "non_latin_distinct": 3, "total_distinct": 183, "distinct_non_latin_pct": 1.639344262295082} | None | None | False | CONTEXT-ONLY |
| r3-b1-34 | exact zero (integrity check, not a statistical band) | {"bad_count": 0, "total": 11964, "bad_share_pct": 0.0} | 0 | None | n/a (exact-zero band; relative margin undefined, see distance) | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-35 | exact zero (integrity check) | {"bad_count": 0, "filtered_total": 11964, "bad_share_pct": 0.0, "rows_excluded_by_amendment": 0} | 0 | None | n/a (exact-zero band; relative margin undefined, see distance) | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-36 | [0.15%, 1.2%] | {"n": 11964, "distinct_subj": 464, "density_pct": 3.878301571380809} | -2.6783015713808087 | -2.231917976150674 | False | KILL-CANDIDATE |
| r3-b1-37 | [30, 160] | {"distinct_language_count": 25} | -5.0 | -0.16666666666666666 | False | KILL-CANDIDATE |
| r3-b1-38 | >10% in {UP, Bihar} AND <2% elsewhere | {"islamic_n": 19, "total": 11964, "pct": 0.15880976262119692} | 1.8411902373788032 | 0.9205951186894016 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-40 | ceiling 0.5% | {"populated": 0, "total": 11964, "pct": 0.0} | 0.5 | 1.0 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |

## Equivalence check (batched temp-table form vs. verbatim-standalone form)

**All identical: True** (5 entries checked: r3-b1-01, r3-b1-15, r3-b1-19, r3-b1-31, r3-b1-33).

No git commit made. This file and its `.json` twin are machine-generated values-only output; the corresponding `_draft_entry.md` carries the machine verdicts in registration §7 entry format, pending orchestrator countersign.
