# Popper V2 rung-3 -- AUTONOMOUS validation, Delhi (machine-run)

**Date:** 2026-08-05. **Batch:** `r3-b1`. **Holdout state:** Delhi (NAMAMI `state_id`='10'). Decision floor: complete=True, reconciled=100.0%. Generated by `run_popper_validation` -- read-only, no writes, no git.

**30 of the registered conjectures carry a per-state `frozen_query`** and were run against this state. Skipped:

| ID | Reason |
|---|---|
| r3-b1-03 | no per-state clause (cross-source/whole-corpus comparator, or tail-UT-only) |
| r3-b1-04 | no per-state clause (cross-source/whole-corpus comparator, or tail-UT-only) |
| r3-b1-05 | no per-state clause (cross-source/whole-corpus comparator, or tail-UT-only) |
| r3-b1-06 | no per-state clause (cross-source/whole-corpus comparator, or tail-UT-only) |
| r3-b1-07 | no per-state clause (cross-source/whole-corpus comparator, or tail-UT-only) |
| r3-b1-09 | no per-state clause (cross-source/whole-corpus comparator, or tail-UT-only) |
| r3-b1-18 | no per-state clause (cross-source/whole-corpus comparator, or tail-UT-only) |
| r3-b1-28 | already holdout-killed (registration §7 Validation event 2 -- Assam (2026-08-05)); registration §7 events 1-2 |

---

## Machine verdicts

| Verdict | Count |
|---|---:|
| CONTEXT-ONLY | 1 |
| KILL-CANDIDATE | 5 |
| REQUIRES-RE-DERIVATION | 3 |
| SURVIVES-LEG | 21 |

## Compact value table

| ID | Band | Measured | Distance | Relative | Near-threshold | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|:---:|---|
| r3-b1-01 | ceiling: NAMAMI dated-fraction < 1% per state; direction: >=1 order of magnitude below every comparator | {"date_precision_breakdown": {"unknown": 51704}, "dated_fraction_pct": 0.0, "filtered_total_rows": 51704, "rows_excluded_by_amendment": 0} | 1.0 | 1.0 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-02 | ceiling 40% (NAMAMI states and clean comparators alike) | {"institution": "Bhogilal Leherchand Institute of Indology", "n": 26614, "pct": 51.473773789261955} | -11.473773789261955 | -0.28684434473154885 | False | KILL-CANDIDATE |
| r3-b1-08 | ceiling 1% per state (training) | {"populated": 0, "total": 51704, "pct": 0.0} | 1.0 | 1.0 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-10 | ceiling 92% | {"top12_cum_pct": 91.99868482129042} | 0.0013151787095750933 | 1.4295420756251014e-05 | True | REQUIRES-RE-DERIVATION |
| r3-b1-11 | ceiling 40% | {"institution": null, "n": 26614, "pct": 51.473773789261955} | -11.473773789261955 | -0.28684434473154885 | False | KILL-CANDIDATE |
| r3-b1-12 | ceiling 75% | {"top3_cum_pct": 64.47083397802878} | 10.529166021971221 | 0.14038888029294963 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-13 | ceiling 1500 | {"hhi12": 2832.4685025226854} | -1332.4685025226854 | -0.8883123350151236 | False | KILL-CANDIDATE |
| r3-b1-14 | ceiling 20 | {"top1_top2_ratio": 7.392777777777778} | 12.607222222222223 | 0.6303611111111111 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-15 | floor 50 | {"distinct_institutes": 76} | 26.0 | 0.52 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-16 | ceiling 103 per 1000 | {"n": 51704, "distinct_inst": 76, "density_per_1000": 1.4699056165867244} | 101.53009438341327 | 0.985729071683624 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-17 | [-3.0, -0.3] | {"npoints": 76, "slope": -2.7131773589619166, "se": 0.09966640958915268, "r2": 0.909210158607444} | 0.2868226410380834 | 0.09560754701269447 | True | REQUIRES-RE-DERIVATION |
| r3-b1-19 | threshold 53,727 (frozen as minted) | {"top_tibetan_institution": "University of Pennsylvania", "top_tibetan_institution_count": 1, "state_total_tibetan_tradition_rows": 1} | 53726.0 | 0.9999813873843691 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-20 | floor 6 | {"distinct_script_groups": 5} | -1.0 | -0.16666666666666666 | False | KILL-CANDIDATE |
| r3-b1-21 | floor 20% | {"sanskrit_n": 44854, "total": 51704, "pct": 86.75150858734334} | 66.75150858734334 | 3.337575429367167 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-23 | ceiling 45% | {"unclassified_n": 2355, "total": 51704, "pct": 4.554773325081231} | 40.44522667491877 | 0.8987828149981949 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-24 | ceiling 35% | {"n": 4, "total": 51704, "pct": 0.007736345350456445} | 34.99226365464954 | 0.9997789615614154 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-25 | ceiling 15% | {"n": 2351, "total": 51704, "pct": 4.547036979730775} | 10.452963020269225 | 0.6968642013512817 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-26 | ceiling 2% | {"n": 243, "total": 51704, "pct": 0.469982980040229} | 1.5300170199597711 | 0.7650085099798856 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-27 | ceiling 0.1% | {"n": 1, "total": 51704, "pct": 0.0019340863376141112} | 0.0980659136623859 | 0.980659136623859 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-29 | >75% in belt AND <15% outside belt | {"n": 521, "total": 51704, "pct": 1.007658981896952} | 13.992341018103048 | 0.9328227345402031 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-30 | >20% in belt AND <5% outside belt | {"n": 412, "total": 51704, "pct": 0.7968435710970138} | 4.203156428902986 | 0.8406312857805972 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-31 | exactly one exception (Odisha) among the 11 training states | {"sanskritic_n": 22317, "indo_aryan_n": 21592, "sanskritic_over_indo_aryan_ratio": 1.033577250833642} | 0.03357725083364205 | 0.03357725083364205 | True | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-32 | floor 35% | {"basis": "language_facet_south_asian", "n": 44624, "total": 51704, "pct": 86.30666872969209} | 51.30666872969209 | 1.4659048208483454 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-33 | belt (Bihar/MP/Rajasthan) substantially and cleanly separated above non-belt (Karnataka/Kerala/Maharashtra/Odisha/TN/HP); contradiction (no clean separation) kills at compile | {"non_latin_holdings": 4994, "total_holdings": 51704, "holdings_weighted_non_latin_pct": 9.658827170044871, "non_latin_distinct": 9, "total_distinct": 76, "distinct_non_latin_pct": 11.842105263157896} | None | None | False | CONTEXT-ONLY |
| r3-b1-34 | exact zero (integrity check, not a statistical band) | {"bad_count": 0, "total": 51704, "bad_share_pct": 0.0} | 0 | None | n/a (exact-zero band; relative margin undefined, see distance) | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-35 | exact zero (integrity check) | {"bad_count": 0, "filtered_total": 51704, "bad_share_pct": 0.0, "rows_excluded_by_amendment": 0} | 0 | None | n/a (exact-zero band; relative margin undefined, see distance) | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-36 | [0.15%, 1.2%] | {"n": 51704, "distinct_subj": 462, "density_pct": 0.8935478879777193} | 0.3064521120222806 | 0.2553767600185672 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-37 | [30, 160] | {"distinct_language_count": 33} | 3.0 | 0.1 | True | REQUIRES-RE-DERIVATION |
| r3-b1-38 | >10% in {UP, Bihar} AND <2% elsewhere | {"islamic_n": 4492, "total": 51704, "pct": 8.687915828562588} | -6.687915828562588 | -3.343957914281294 | False | KILL-CANDIDATE |
| r3-b1-40 | ceiling 0.5% | {"populated": 0, "total": 51704, "pct": 0.0} | 0.5 | 1.0 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |

## Equivalence check (batched temp-table form vs. verbatim-standalone form)

**All identical: True** (5 entries checked: r3-b1-01, r3-b1-15, r3-b1-19, r3-b1-31, r3-b1-33).

No git commit made. This file and its `.json` twin are machine-generated values-only output; the corresponding `_draft_entry.md` carries the machine verdicts in registration §7 entry format, pending orchestrator countersign.
