# Popper V2 rung-3 batch r3-b1 — Fable triage record (2026-08-04)

Adjudicator: Fable (orchestrator session), per
`docs/DESIGN_POPPER_V2_RUNG3_REGISTRATION_20260804.md` §3 step 2. Batch: 40 minted
(disclosed), files `popper_v2_rung3_minted_1..4.json` + README, committed alongside
this record — the commit timestamps the statements BEFORE any pinning result exists.

## Verdicts

**KILLED AT COMPILE (2):**

- **r3-b1-22** — training-set contradiction as written: the minting lane itself found
  Bihar (41.10%) is a second sub-50% state, so "HP is the unique state under 50%" is
  false on the training data. Revising the statement post-observation to fit
  ("HP and Bihar are the two exceptions") would register a claim fitted to data
  already seen — refused. Content survives elsewhere: the 20% floor (-21), the
  Tibetan mechanism (-19), the Islamic bimodality (-38). Graveyard family: uniqueness
  claims whose exception set was read off the training data.
- **r3-b1-39** — compound ratio of two already-registered metrics (-36, -37) with no
  independent mechanism; the lane self-flagged it. Consolidated, not merely dropped:
  its components carry the content.

**REGISTERED (34 unconditional):** r3-b1-01, 02, 03, 04 (amended: primary metric
excludes `unknown`, raw shares secondary — the lane's own proposal), 05, 06, 07, 09,
10, 11, 12, 14, 15, 16, 18 (amended, see ruling 2), 19 (amended, see ruling 3), 20,
21, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27 (registered though low-information — basis-coverage
completeness is a legitimate design goal and the batch-size disclosure prices it),
28, 29 (see ruling 4), 30 (same), 31, 32, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38 (see ruling 5).

**REGISTERED CONDITIONAL ON PINNING (4):** r3-b1-08 & 40 (per-state extent_leaves
re-run — if the source-wide 0.27% proves concentrated in one state making the
ceiling unsafe, they die at compile, recorded), 13 (precise HHI recompute — minted
values were top-12 approximations), 17 (full-distribution log-log fit — minted band
was an eyeball; the band is FROZEN as minted, see ruling 1), 33 (the mechanical
Unicode classifier must be built and the full holdings-weighted training values must
still support the bimodal split as stated; a contradiction kills it at compile).

## Standing rulings (bind the registration document)

1. **Bands are frozen as minted.** The pinning pass computes precise training-side
   values; if a precise value falls OUTSIDE its minted band, that conjecture dies at
   compile with the reason recorded. Bands are never adjusted to fit — in either
   direction.
2. **Gujarat leaves the batch** (mid-walk at triage time, same status as Andhra
   Pradesh: neither training nor holdout — the strong §IV source rule; "on disk but
   unqueried" is not a certifiable holdout state). Every kill-condition naming
   Gujarat is amended to the surviving deciding set. Gujarat outcomes MAY be
   reported as exploratory/replication-grade context, never as registered
   validation. Same for **Chandigarh** (11,581 rows landed pre-registration):
   excluded from r3-b1-18's deciding set; -18 is decided by tail UTs landing AFTER
   the registration commit.
3. **r3-b1-19's escape clause is pinned:** "recognized Tibetan-exile/Buddhist
   center" applies to Jammu & Kashmir ONLY (the Ladakh boundary question, named
   now). Assam and the tail get no escape.
4. **r3-b1-29/30 are one-sided this batch** (their own honest flag): only the
   outside-belt ceiling clause is testable on the surviving holdout; the in-belt
   clause validates on Telangana when it lands post-registration. Andhra Pradesh
   stays out of batch 1 permanently.
5. **r3-b1-38's J&K test is directional and non-killing:** the mechanism predicts
   J&K ≥2% (Persian heritage); the kill fires only on Assam (or a tail state) at
   ≥2%. J&K's outcome is recorded either way as the mechanism's live test.
6. **Decision floor:** a state decides a conjecture only when its walk is COMPLETE
   and reconciled (band ≥98.9%); probe-grade rows (60) never decide anything; UT
   claims with N>1000 clauses keep them.
7. **Power note (blanket):** most claims are exact reads over complete enumerations
   — no sampling error; "power" reduces to decidability at landing, stated once
   here rather than faked per-row. r3-b1-17 (regression) and any claim with genuine
   estimation uncertainty carry `power: not computable — flagged` until the pinning
   fit supplies standard errors.

## Consequence for the walk

The surviving decisive tests are J&K (-19 Ladakh, -38 Persian) and Assam (-28
Tibeto-Burman directional). **Registration must therefore commit before J&K fires.**
The census is not slowed: Gujarat's walk continues; the J&K refire simply follows
the registration commit in the normal loop-service latency (minutes-scale gaps
between states are ordinary all day). If events outrun this anyway, J&K slides out
exactly as Gujarat did and the batch validates on Assam + tail — weaker, honest,
recorded.

## Side-findings routed out of the batch

- beta-maṣāḥǝft placeholder "repositories" (top-2 are malformed values) →
  harvest-audit chip.
- Kannada-script institution names in Rajasthan/MP top-12 lists → harvest-audit
  chip (curiosity; possible cross-state entry or mislabel).
- The 210 century-precision NAMAMI rows live outside the 11 complete states —
  which state? → pinning-lane note (cheap query, r3-b1-35's lead).
