# Popper V2 rung-3 -- AUTONOMOUS validation, Jharkhand (machine-run)

**Date:** 2026-08-05. **Batch:** `r3-b1`. **Holdout state:** Jharkhand (NAMAMI `state_id`='16'). Decision floor: complete=True, reconciled=100.0%. Generated by `run_popper_validation` -- read-only, no writes, no git.

**30 of the registered conjectures carry a per-state `frozen_query`** and were run against this state. Skipped:

| ID | Reason |
|---|---|
| r3-b1-03 | no per-state clause (cross-source/whole-corpus comparator, or tail-UT-only) |
| r3-b1-04 | no per-state clause (cross-source/whole-corpus comparator, or tail-UT-only) |
| r3-b1-05 | no per-state clause (cross-source/whole-corpus comparator, or tail-UT-only) |
| r3-b1-06 | no per-state clause (cross-source/whole-corpus comparator, or tail-UT-only) |
| r3-b1-07 | no per-state clause (cross-source/whole-corpus comparator, or tail-UT-only) |
| r3-b1-09 | no per-state clause (cross-source/whole-corpus comparator, or tail-UT-only) |
| r3-b1-18 | no per-state clause (cross-source/whole-corpus comparator, or tail-UT-only) |
| r3-b1-28 | already holdout-killed (registration §7 Validation event 2 -- Assam (2026-08-05)); registration §7 events 1-2 |

---

## Machine verdicts

| Verdict | Count |
|---|---:|
| CONTEXT-ONLY | 1 |
| KILL-CANDIDATE | 4 |
| REQUIRES-RE-DERIVATION | 1 |
| SURVIVES-LEG | 24 |

## Compact value table

| ID | Band | Measured | Distance | Relative | Near-threshold | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|:---:|---|
| r3-b1-01 | ceiling: NAMAMI dated-fraction < 1% per state; direction: >=1 order of magnitude below every comparator | {"date_precision_breakdown": {"unknown": 4347}, "dated_fraction_pct": 0.0, "filtered_total_rows": 4347, "rows_excluded_by_amendment": 0} | 1.0 | 1.0 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-02 | ceiling 40% (NAMAMI states and clean comparators alike) | {"institution": "श्री दि0 जैन मंदिर उदासीन आश्रम", "n": 1111, "pct": 25.5578559926386} | 14.4421440073614 | 0.361053600184035 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-08 | ceiling 1% per state (training) | {"populated": 0, "total": 4347, "pct": 0.0} | 1.0 | 1.0 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-10 | ceiling 92% | {"top12_cum_pct": 90.20013802622498} | 1.7998619737750232 | 0.019563717106250253 | True | REQUIRES-RE-DERIVATION |
| r3-b1-11 | ceiling 40% | {"institution": null, "n": 1111, "pct": 25.5578559926386} | 14.4421440073614 | 0.361053600184035 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-12 | ceiling 75% | {"top3_cum_pct": 50.218541522889346} | 24.781458477110654 | 0.3304194463614754 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-13 | ceiling 1500 | {"hhi12": 1173.8150883588517} | 326.18491164114835 | 0.21745660776076556 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-14 | ceiling 20 | {"top1_top2_ratio": 2.001801801801802} | 17.9981981981982 | 0.8999099099099099 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-15 | floor 50 | {"distinct_institutes": 43} | -7.0 | -0.14 | False | KILL-CANDIDATE |
| r3-b1-16 | ceiling 103 per 1000 | {"n": 4347, "distinct_inst": 43, "density_per_1000": 9.891879457096849} | 93.10812054290315 | 0.9039623353679918 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-17 | [-3.0, -0.3] | {"npoints": 43, "slope": -2.1792192836770217, "se": 0.13141247850075663, "r2": 0.8702521141845602} | 0.8207807163229783 | 0.27359357210765944 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-19 | threshold 53,727 (frozen as minted) | {"top_tibetan_institution": null, "top_tibetan_institution_count": 0, "state_total_tibetan_tradition_rows": 0} | 53727.0 | 1.0 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-20 | floor 6 | {"distinct_script_groups": 3} | -3.0 | -0.5 | False | KILL-CANDIDATE |
| r3-b1-21 | floor 20% | {"sanskrit_n": 4143, "total": 4347, "pct": 95.30710835058662} | 75.30710835058662 | 3.7653554175293307 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-23 | ceiling 45% | {"unclassified_n": 187, "total": 4347, "pct": 4.301817345295606} | 40.6981826547044 | 0.904404058993431 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-24 | ceiling 35% | {"n": 37, "total": 4347, "pct": 0.8511617207269381} | 34.148838279273065 | 0.9756810936935162 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-25 | ceiling 15% | {"n": 150, "total": 4347, "pct": 3.450655624568668} | 11.549344375431332 | 0.7699562916954221 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-26 | ceiling 2% | {"n": 43, "total": 4347, "pct": 0.9891879457096848} | 1.0108120542903152 | 0.5054060271451576 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-27 | ceiling 0.1% | {"n": 0, "total": 4347, "pct": 0.0} | 0.1 | 1.0 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-29 | >75% in belt AND <15% outside belt | {"n": 0, "total": 4347, "pct": 0.0} | 15.0 | 1.0 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-30 | >20% in belt AND <5% outside belt | {"n": 0, "total": 4347, "pct": 0.0} | 5.0 | 1.0 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-31 | exactly one exception (Odisha) among the 11 training states | {"sanskritic_n": 1975, "indo_aryan_n": 2129, "sanskritic_over_indo_aryan_ratio": 0.927665570690465} | -0.07233442930953504 | -0.07233442930953504 | True | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-32 | floor 35% | {"basis": "language_facet_south_asian", "n": 4100, "total": 4347, "pct": 94.31792040487693} | 59.31792040487693 | 1.6947977258536266 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-33 | belt (Bihar/MP/Rajasthan) substantially and cleanly separated above non-belt (Karnataka/Kerala/Maharashtra/Odisha/TN/HP); contradiction (no clean separation) kills at compile | {"non_latin_holdings": 3746, "total_holdings": 4347, "holdings_weighted_non_latin_pct": 86.17437313089486, "non_latin_distinct": 19, "total_distinct": 43, "distinct_non_latin_pct": 44.18604651162791} | None | None | False | CONTEXT-ONLY |
| r3-b1-34 | exact zero (integrity check, not a statistical band) | {"bad_count": 0, "total": 4347, "bad_share_pct": 0.0} | 0 | None | n/a (exact-zero band; relative margin undefined, see distance) | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-35 | exact zero (integrity check) | {"bad_count": 0, "filtered_total": 4347, "bad_share_pct": 0.0, "rows_excluded_by_amendment": 0} | 0 | None | n/a (exact-zero band; relative margin undefined, see distance) | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-36 | [0.15%, 1.2%] | {"n": 4347, "distinct_subj": 139, "density_pct": 3.1976075454336326} | -1.9976075454336326 | -1.6646729545280272 | False | KILL-CANDIDATE |
| r3-b1-37 | [30, 160] | {"distinct_language_count": 18} | -12.0 | -0.4 | False | KILL-CANDIDATE |
| r3-b1-38 | >10% in {UP, Bihar} AND <2% elsewhere | {"islamic_n": 17, "total": 4347, "pct": 0.3910743041177824} | 1.6089256958822176 | 0.8044628479411088 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |
| r3-b1-40 | ceiling 0.5% | {"populated": 0, "total": 4347, "pct": 0.0} | 0.5 | 1.0 | False | SURVIVES-LEG |

## Equivalence check (batched temp-table form vs. verbatim-standalone form)

**All identical: True** (5 entries checked: r3-b1-01, r3-b1-15, r3-b1-19, r3-b1-31, r3-b1-33).

No git commit made. This file and its `.json` twin are machine-generated values-only output; the corresponding `_draft_entry.md` carries the machine verdicts in registration §7 entry format, pending orchestrator countersign.
