---
conjecture: r3-b1-21
family: grok
model: "Grok 4.5 expert (chat paste-back via orchestrator window)"
received: 2026-08-06
template: PROMPT_TEMPLATE_v1.md sha256 4344aabfacfe88362c56d89b6c89d594a7bf3a221e18a16b0e351482447e512f
rivals_parsed: 2
---

{
"rivals": [
{
"mechanism": "The >20% floor is an artifact of the portal's tradition-classification routing rules, which assign the large majority of records that are neither clearly Tibetan nor Persian/Arabic/Islamic to the South Asian (Sanskrit/Prakrit/Pali-family) umbrella by default; only a state with a massive volume of competing, positively labeled non-umbrella tradition can approach the floor.",
"why_it_explains_the_same_evidence": "Under these routing rules the single Tibetan-presence training state produces the observed low outlier of 22.42% while every other training state and all nine holdout states (none of which contain a comparable volume of positively labeled competing tradition) automatically exceed 20%, reproducing the entire training range and holdout survival without any requirement that South Asian material actually constitute a substantial physical presence in every state.",
"named_confounds": ["cataloguing practice for tradition labels", "administrative classification or routing artifact", "default-assignment bias in the tradition field"],
"discriminating_test": {
"description": "Sample records labeled under the South Asian umbrella and records left unclassified; inspect free-text title, script, language, and colophon fields for positive evidence of Sanskrit/Prakrit/Pali versus evidence consistent with other traditions or none. Recompute the umbrella share after applying a stricter positive-evidence rule that refuses default assignment. Measure whether the recomputed shares in non-Tibetan states fall below 20%.",
"computable_on_held_data": true,
"what_result_favors_rival": "If a substantial fraction of umbrella-labeled records lack positive Sanskrit/Prakrit/Pali evidence and the stricter rule drops one or more non-Tibetan states below the 20% floor, this favors the rival (routing artifact); if nearly all umbrella records carry clear positive evidence and the floor survives the stricter rule, this favors the proposed real-presence mechanism."
}
},
{
"mechanism": "Indian state-level manuscript institutions preferentially collect, preserve, and catalogue classical Indic (Sanskrit-family) material as their core holdings; the observed floor therefore reflects this shared institutional collecting priority across states, with the single Tibetan-presence state as the only major exception that dilutes the share near 20%.",
"why_it_explains_the_same_evidence": "Because nearly every complete state contains large official or traditional repositories whose catalogued holdings are dominated by Indic material, the South Asian umbrella share stays above 20% in the ten non-Tibetan training states and in all nine holdouts; the 22.42% outlier occurs only where a major Tibetan-exile institution dominates the state's total, exactly matching the training and holdout pattern.",
"named_confounds": ["selection effects in what got catalogued", "institutional collecting and digitization priorities", "survival or preservation bias toward classical Indic material"],
"discriminating_test": {
"description": "Obtain independent published inventories or secondary catalogues of the largest institutions in several non-Tibetan training and holdout states that are not mediated by NAMAMI's tradition field; compute the share of material that those independent sources assign to Sanskrit/Prakrit/Pali-family traditions and compare against the NAMAMI umbrella shares for the same institutions.",
"computable_on_held_data": false,
"what_result_favors_rival": "If independent inventories show South Asian shares substantially below the NAMAMI figures (or below 20%) for institutions that NAMAMI reports well above the floor, this favors the rival (institutional collecting priority plus portal amplification); if the independent shares closely match NAMAMI's umbrella percentages, this favors the proposed mechanism."
}
}
],
"no_viable_rival": false,
"notes": ""
}
