---
conjecture: r3-b1-31
family: grok
model: "Grok 4.5 expert (chat paste-back via orchestrator window)"
received: 2026-08-06
template: PROMPT_TEMPLATE_v1.md sha256 4344aabfacfe88362c56d89b6c89d594a7bf3a221e18a16b0e351482447e512f
rivals_parsed: 2
---

{
"rivals": [
{
"mechanism": "Vernacular (indo_aryan) dominance occurs in any state whose largest contributing institutions have prioritized the cataloguing of vernacular-language material over classical Sanskrit/Prakrit collections; the training exception and the two additional holdout flips are simply the states in which that institutional priority produced a state-level ratio below 1, rather than evidence of unique regional literary cultures.",
"why_it_explains_the_same_evidence": "If the state-level ratio is driven by the language mix of a handful of high-volume institutions, the training pattern (one vernacular-dominant state, all others sanskritic) and the holdout results (two further vernacular-dominant states) are the expected outcome of ordinary variation in institutional cataloguing priorities; the specific regional-tradition mechanism is unnecessary, and the literal survival of the narrow kill condition is irrelevant to the underlying driver.",
"named_confounds": ["selection effects in what got catalogued", "institutional digitization and cataloguing priorities", "unit-of-count concentration in large institutions"],
"discriminating_test": {
"description": "For the training exception state and the two vernacular-dominant holdout states, identify the institutions that contribute the largest shares of indo_aryan-routed records; recompute the sanskritic-to-vernacular ratio after removing those top institutions and after restricting to only those institutions. Compare the institutional-level ratios with the same calculation performed on several sanskritic-dominant states.",
"computable_on_held_data": true,
"what_result_favors_rival": "If vernacular dominance at the state level disappears once the top one or two institutions are removed (or is entirely concentrated inside them), while sanskritic-dominant states show no such concentration, this favors the rival (institutional priority); if vernacular dominance persists even after removing the largest institutions, this favors the proposed regional-tradition mechanism."
}
},
{
"mechanism": "The routed 'sanskritic' versus 'indo_aryan' groupings are sensitive to token-boundary and mixed-language decisions inside the routing instrument; states that contain substantial volumes of records with ambiguous, bilingual, or vernacular-leaning language tokens can flip the ratio when those tokens are assigned even slightly differently, producing multiple vernacular-dominant states without any distinctive regional manuscript culture.",
"why_it_explains_the_same_evidence": "A modest sensitivity in how vernacular-adjacent tokens are grouped would generate the single training exception and the two additional holdout flips as ordinary threshold-crossing events; the same sensitivity keeps most states sanskritic-dominant and explains why the narrow registered kill condition (tied to three specific states) could be survived even while substantive uniqueness was lost.",
"named_confounds": ["cataloguing or routing practice for language-token boundaries", "administrative classification of mixed or bilingual records", "unit-of-count sensitivity to token assignment rules"],
"discriminating_test": {
"description": "Re-run the language-grouping step under two or three plausible alternative token-assignment rules (for example, treating certain mixed or early-modern vernacular tokens as sanskritic versus indo_aryan); recompute the state-level ratios under each rule for all training and holdout states. Measure how many states flip between sanskritic-dominant and vernacular-dominant under the alternative rules.",
"computable_on_held_data": true,
"what_result_favors_rival": "If alternative but still reasonable token rules cause additional states to flip or cause the original exception states to revert, demonstrating high sensitivity, this favors the rival (routing-boundary sensitivity); if the set of vernacular-dominant states remains stable across reasonable alternative rules, this favors the proposed regional-tradition mechanism."
}
}
],
"no_viable_rival": false,
"notes": ""
}
