# r2-edh-b1-19

**Claim (as registered):** The rate of epigrapher-flagged uncertain monument-type identifications stays under 25% of monument-typed rows in every eligible province.

**Proposed mechanism:** A ceiling on how much identification uncertainty any one province's material can show, set well above the observed training-side maximum.

**Scope:** Source: the Epigraphic Database Heidelberg (EDH), a catalogue of Roman-period inscriptions on stone/metal/etc. (physical objects, catalogued separately from a manuscript census). Training: the 33 provinces in the alphabetically first half of EDH's own province-code order (42,009 inscriptions). Holdout: the 33 provinces in the alphabetically second half, minus 'Provincia incerta' (EDH's own catch-all for uncertain findspots, not a real geographic unit, excluded from all arithmetic) -- 32 real provinces, 39,457 inscriptions -- landed in one complete fetch after the claim was fixed. EDH's own content has been fixed since 2021 (the cataloguing project's funding ended), so this holdout tests whether a pattern generalizes across an arbitrary alphabetical split of already-catalogued, unchanging material, not whether it predicts new discoveries. Minimum support: at least 100 monument-typed rows in a province.

**Training-side evidence:** Observed training-side maximum (excluding a small Alpine outlier region): 18.06%.

**Holdout test and outcome:** Of 23 eligible holdout provinces, the closest approach to the ceiling was 13.57%.

**Status:** Survived every eligible holdout province.
