---
conjecture: r3-b1-08
family: codex
model: "gpt-5.6-sol (codex-cli 0.144.0-alpha.4, ChatGPT-subscription auth)"
model_stamp_corrected: "2026-08-07 — archives were first written stamped gpt-5.5 by a runner bug (the stamper read config.toml's default instead of the -m flag actually passed). The calls themselves ran on gpt-5.6-sol throughout; only the label was wrong. Corrected in place, noted here rather than silently."
received: 2026-08-07
template: PROMPT_TEMPLATE_v1.md sha256 4344aabfacfe88362c56d89b6c89d594a7bf3a221e18a16b0e351482447e512f
rivals_parsed: 1
validation: VALID
---

{
  "rivals": [
    {
      "mechanism": "The ordinary NAMAMI records for these states may come from legacy or minimal upstream ingestion templates that omit or mis-map structured extent data. The harvested field would therefore mirror source-level nulls, rather than being empty because the list-page harvester failed to parse available values.",
      "why_it_explains_the_same_evidence": "If all 20 completed states were loaded through the same sparse ingestion pathway, both the eleven training zeros and the nine held-out results would follow, while the nationwide 0.27% could come from exceptional institutions, later import batches, or richer pathways concentrated in other states. The comparator's 97.63% rate would follow from its independently curated, per-manuscript data-entry practice. Excluding the separate enrichment pilot leaves this upstream-source explanation observationally indistinguishable from parser omission in the reported test.",
      "named_confounds": [
        "upstream data-entry-template heterogeneity",
        "legacy schema migration or field-mapping failure",
        "institutional or import-batch selection",
        "state-to-ingestion-pathway confounding"
      ],
      "discriminating_test": {
        "description": "For a stratified sample of unenriched blank records from every completed state, plus records carrying extent from outside those states, retrieve the raw list response and ordinary per-record detail response before local transformation. Measure whether an explicit structured extent value is present and whether presence clusters by source institution, record identifier range, import date, or ingestion batch. The rival predicts that blank cohorts lack a structured source value and that positive records cluster in identifiable richer batches; the stated parser mechanism predicts that recoverable extent values are present at substantial and broadly similar rates in the source responses but are omitted by list-page extraction.",
        "computable_on_held_data": true,
        "what_result_favors_rival": "Structured extent is absent from both raw list and ordinary detail data for nearly all blank records, while positive records are sharply associated with particular institutions, import cohorts, or schema versions."
      }
    }
  ],
  "no_viable_rival": false,
  "notes": "The provenance and input source of the detail-enrichment pilot are important: if it simply extracts extent already present on ordinary NAMAMI detail pages, that evidence would substantially weaken this rival."
}
