# Popper Engine r2-edh-b1 — MACHINE SCORING (DRAFT, awaiting orchestrator countersignature)

**Role:** this document and its companion `popper_r2_edh_scoring_values_20260806.json` are
**DRAFT machine-scorer output**, produced by a one-shot ad hoc scoring pass (no permanent
runner module exists for this batch yet, per the registration doc's own §7 disclosure). They
are **not** part of the registration file, **have not been reviewed**, and carry no authority
until an orchestrator reads them, applies the V1 graveyard-furniture discipline to every
KILL-CANDIDATE, rules on the two flagged SQL-scope ambiguities, and appends a countersigned
entry to `popper_r2_edh_registration_20260806.md` §8. Nothing in this document was written to
the registration file, the pinned instrument files, or the predictions file; the registration
doc's own decision rules (§7) are applied here mechanically, not re-interpreted.

**Date:** 2026-08-06. **Batch:** `r2-edh-b1`. **Decision floor:** met — 33/33 holdout
provinces landed EXACT (`edh_holdout_ingest_20260806.md`), independently re-confirmed here by
a fresh COUNT of the 32 geographic holdout provinces (Inc excluded): **39,457**, consistent
with the ingest report's 39,846 holdout total minus Inc's 389. Combined `source=edh` total:
81,855. **Actor:** Claude Sonnet 5. **DB:** read-only SELECTs only, no writes, no migrations,
no git commit taken by this pass. Full computed values (every province, every clause, raw
query rows) are in the companion JSON; this document is the narrative verdict table.

---

## 1. Read this first — two Block A instruments have a genuine SQL-scope defect (01, 02)

`r2-edh-b1-01` and `r2-edh-b1-02`'s `frozen_sql` compute their share/rank **inside the SQL**
(`SUM(n) OVER ()`, `ROW_NUMBER() OVER (ORDER BY n DESC...)`) over **whatever the WHERE clause
returns**, and that WHERE clause is only `province_code <> 'Inc'` — no restriction to the 32
holdout codes. This was correct and fully verified when only the 33 registration-slice
provinces existed in the table (pinning pass, 2026-08-05/06). Now that **both halves share the
same table**, running these two queries **verbatim** computes the share/rank across **all 65
provinces combined**, not the registered "32-province geographic holdout total" that both
instruments' own T1-hardened scope text requires. This is not a SQL error (both queries execute
cleanly) — it is exactly the "ambiguous against the real data" case the operating brief
anticipates. Per instruction, **no repair was improvised**. Both numbers are recorded:

| ID | Verbatim frozen_sql output (WRONG population — both halves mixed) | Supplementary same-formula computation restricted to the 32 holdout codes (NOT the frozen instrument; context only, same convention as the pinning pass's own `verification_sql` for 03/12/17/21/23) | Threshold |
|---|---|---|---:|
| 01 | top5_share_pct = **34.4622%** (top-5 across all 65 provinces: training giants Dalmatia/GeS/Britannia dominate) | top5_share_pct = **48.7670%** (top-5 of the 32 holdout: HiC, Rom, PaS, PaI, Nor) | ≥45% |
| 02 | top1 = Dalmatia (training), share = **9.3867%** | top1 = HiC (Hispania citerior, genuinely the holdout's own largest), share = **11.8737%** | <30% |

**DRAFT verdict for both: WITHHELD — SQL-SCOPE-AMBIGUOUS-VERBATIM.** Note for the orchestrator:
under the supplementary (almost certainly intended) restricted reading, 01 would mechanically
SURVIVE-LEG but land **near-threshold** (relative margin 8.37%, i.e. within the 10% rule) and
02 would mechanically SURVIVE-LEG comfortably (relative margin 60.4%, not near). Neither
number is offered as a DRAFT verdict in its own right — only the orchestrator can rule on
which population the frozen instrument, as registered, actually governs.

---

## 2. Block A — verdict table (25 conjectures)

Verdicts: **SURVIVES-LEG** / **KILL-CANDIDATE** / **UNDECIDABLE** (insufficient support) /
**WITHHELD-PENDING-REDERIVATION** (near-threshold, §7 rule) / **WITHHELD — SQL-SCOPE-AMBIGUOUS**
(see §1). "Mech." = the verdict the mechanical rule would give before the near-threshold
override (blank where not applicable).

| ID | Verdict | Mech. | Deciding fact | Threshold | Rel. dist. |
|---|---|---|---|---:|---:|
| 01 | WITHHELD — SQL-scope ambiguous | — | see §1 | 45% | — |
| 02 | WITHHELD — SQL-scope ambiguous | — | see §1 | 30% | — |
| 03 | WITHHELD-PENDING-REDERIVATION | SURVIVES | 12/32 <300 (**exactly** at floor); 15/32 ≥1000 | ≥12; ≥5 | **0.0%**; +200% |
| 04 | WITHHELD-PENDING-REDERIVATION | SURVIVES | min=MaT 13.40% (<35 ✓, +61.7%); max=Nor 99.60% (>95 ✓, **+4.85%**) | 35% / 95% | +4.85% (nearest) |
| 05 | WITHHELD-PENDING-REDERIVATION | **KILL** | 11/15 then-eligible (N≥1000) show range≥40% = 73.33% | ≥75% | **−2.22%** |
| 06 | WITHHELD-PENDING-REDERIVATION | SURVIVES | worst = Mauretania Tingitana 38.46% | ≤40% | **+3.85%** (also pre-committed, §3 below) |
| 07 | SURVIVES-LEG | — | worst = Samnium, 14 distinct genres | ≥8 | +75.0% |
| 08 | SURVIVES-LEG | — | worst = Samnium, 8 distinct materials | ≥5 | +60.0% |
| 09 | SURVIVES-LEG | — | 19/19 then-eligible (N≥150) show epitaph/votive plurality = 100% | ≥85% | +17.6% |
| 10 | **KILL-CANDIDATE** | — | Mediterranean-8 clause: 1/3 eligible ≥15% (only LaC 54.4%) = 33.3% vs 75% (**−55.6%**); Continental-6 clause: 3/5 eligible <10% = 60% vs 75% (**−20.0%**). Both clauses kill independently — Noricum (35.97% marmor) and Lusitania (16.78%) both breach the Continental ceiling. | 75% / 75% | −55.6% / −20.0% |
| 11 | SURVIVES-LEG | — | best of {Rae,Nor} = Raetia 17.28% (both provinces cleared N≥100) | ≥10% | +72.8% |
| 12 | SURVIVES-LEG | — | best of {Rae,Nor} = Raetia, 45 diploma finds (exceeds the training-side ceiling, Dacia 44) | ≥3 | +1400% |
| 13 | WITHHELD-PENDING-REDERIVATION | SURVIVES | Latin-West-21 clause: 19/19 <5% = 100% (+25.0%); Greek-East-6 clause: 4/5 eligible ≥5% = **exactly 80.0%** (ReB 1.28% is the one failure) | 80% / 80% | **0.0%** (Greek-East clause) |
| 14 | SURVIVES-LEG | — | 0 of 18 then-eligible (Rom excluded, Mesopotamia carved out) peak outside {0,1} | n/a (categorical) | — |
| 15 | **KILL-CANDIDATE** | — | African-4 clause: 0/2 eligible >60% (Numidia 4.82%, Mauretania Caesariensis 51.43% — **neither** clears) = 0% vs 75% (**−100%**, decisive); non-African-pool clause: 12/13 ≤60% = 92.3% vs 80% (survives, not the decider) | 75% / 80% | −100.0% |
| 16 | WITHHELD-PENDING-REDERIVATION | SURVIVES | worst = Narbonensis 92.59% | ≥90% | **+2.88%** |
| 17 | UNDECIDABLE | — | Mesopotamia N(dated)=4 < floor 20 (peak bucket=1 on those 4 rows, not counted) | N≥20 | — |
| 18 | SURVIVES-LEG | — | worst = Numidia 39.26% | ≥35% | +12.2% |
| 19 | SURVIVES-LEG | — | worst = Pannonia superior 13.57% | <25% | +45.7% |
| 20 | WITHHELD-PENDING-REDERIVATION | SURVIVES | min=Sardinia 13.16% (<30 ✓, +56.1%); max=Pannonia inferior 93.01% (>90 ✓, **+3.35%**) | 30% / 90% | +3.35% (nearest) |
| 21 | **KILL-CANDIDATE** | — | frontier (Rae+Nor) unweighted-mean length = 140.51 chars; Mediterranean-8 (7 eligible) mean = 136.37 chars — **frontier is 3.03% LONGER**, direction reversed (statement required ≥20% shorter) | ≥20% shorter | −115.2% (reversed sign) |
| 22 | **KILL-CANDIDATE** | — | Western-4 clause: 0/4 eligible ≥5% (Numidia 0.19%, Mauretania Caes. 1.96%, Narbonensis 1.78%, Lugdunensis 0.67%) = 0% vs 75% (**−100%**, decisive); Greek-East-2 clause UNDECIDABLE (only Macedonia clears N≥100; Lycia et Pamphylia does not — T4 both-of-2 floor not met) | 75% / (undecidable) | −100.0% |
| 23 | WITHHELD-PENDING-REDERIVATION | SURVIVES | Transpadana stele share = 21.38% (N=116 typed monuments, clears N≥100 floor) | ≥20% | **+6.90%** |
| 24 | SURVIVES-LEG | — | closest-to-edge = Roma, avg width 71.20 yrs (nearest edge: 20) | [20,250] | +256.0% |
| 25 | SURVIVES-LEG | — | min=Lusitania 0.0% (<3 ✓); max=Numidia 51.25% (>40 ✓) | 3% / 40% | comfortable both sides |

---

## 3. Near-boundary list (Block A) — independent re-derivation required before adjudication

Per the registration's own §7 rule (within 10% relative of a band edge) plus the task's
near-boundary instruction, the following **8** conjectures are WITHHELD-PENDING-REDERIVATION,
plus the **2** SQL-scope-ambiguous ones (§1) and **06**'s unconditional pre-commitment:

- **r2-edh-b1-06** — **PRE-COMMITTED, unconditionally, by the registration document itself**
  (§7: "independent re-derivation on its verdict is pre-committed regardless of which side of
  the line it falls"). Mechanically SURVIVES (worst province Mauretania Tingitana 38.46% vs the
  40% ceiling), and that computed margin (3.85% relative, 1.54pp absolute) is *also*
  independently near-threshold by the standard 10% rule — both triggers point the same way.
- **r2-edh-b1-03** — the `<300` clause lands at **exactly** 12 of 32 (0.0% relative margin) —
  a razor's-edge pass on a discrete count, not a percentage; worth flagging even though the
  `≥1000` clause (15 of 32) clears with wide margin.
- **r2-edh-b1-04** — the low-extreme clause (Mauretania Tingitana 13.40% < 35%) is comfortable;
  the high-extreme clause (Noricum 99.60% > 95%) sits at only 4.85% relative margin.
- **r2-edh-b1-05** — 73.33% of then-eligible large provinces clear the range-share floor
  against a 75% requirement — mechanically a **KILL**, but only 2.22% relative short, i.e. one
  more province clearing 40% range-share would flip it to SURVIVES.
- **r2-edh-b1-13** — the Greek-East-6 clause lands at **exactly** 80.0% (4 of 5 eligible; ReB
  1.28% is the lone Latin-dominant outlier) against an 80% requirement — 0.0% relative margin.
- **r2-edh-b1-16** — worst province Narbonensis at 92.59% against the 90% floor (2.88% relative
  margin) — the holdout-side echo of the same window-compactness instrument whose *training*
  side the pinning pass already flagged as unexpectedly tight (Baetica 91.08%).
- **r2-edh-b1-20** — high-extreme clause (Pannonia inferior 93.01% > 90%) at 3.35% relative
  margin; low-extreme (Sardinia 13.16% < 30%) comfortable.
- **r2-edh-b1-23** — Transpadana's stele share (21.38%) clears the 20% floor by only 6.90%
  relative margin, on a single training exemplar (Aemilia) to begin with.

## 4. UNDECIDABLE list (Block A)

- **r2-edh-b1-17** — Mesopotamia's own N(dated)=4, below its stated floor of 20 (Mesopotamia
  has only 12 total EDH rows in the holdout, confirmed against the ingest report). This was
  foreseeable: the registration's own `training_value` note for 17 already flagged Mesopotamia
  as "expected to be a small holdout province." UNDECIDABLE, not a survive or a kill.

## 5. KILL-CANDIDATE detail (graveyard-furniture material, machine-drafted, unreviewed)

- **r2-edh-b1-10** (Mediterranean vs Continental marmor divide) — both named clauses fail
  independently. Only 3 of the 8 Mediterranean-named provinces clear the N(hasmat)≥100 floor
  (HiC, Nar, LaC — Iud/Sar/Sic/Syr/Tri all land below 100 material-attributed rows), and only
  LaC clears the ≥15% bar among those three. On the Continental side, Noricum lands at **35.97%
  Marmor share** (860/2391) — far above every training-side Continental analogue (Belgica 2.9%,
  GeS 1.2%, Britannia 0.6%, GeI 0.4%) — and Lusitania at 16.78%, both breaching the <10%
  ceiling; only Raetia/Pannonia superior/Pannonia inferior stay under it.
- **r2-edh-b1-15** (North Africa's gentler decline) — decisively killed by the African-4 clause:
  **neither** landed African province (Numidia 4.82%, Mauretania Caesariensis 51.43%) clears
  the >60% ratio the mechanism predicted, a clean 0-for-2. The non-African comparator clause
  independently survives (92.3% of 13 eligible ≤60%), so the asymmetry is specifically that the
  "North Africa is different" half of the claim did not hold up, not the baseline.
- **r2-edh-b1-21** (frontier text shorter than Mediterranean) — the predicted direction
  reverses outright: frontier (Raetia+Noricum) unweighted-mean transcription length is 140.51
  characters, *longer* than the Mediterranean-8 comparator's 136.37 (7 eligible provinces) —
  not merely short of the 20%-shorter bar but pointing the wrong way entirely.
- **r2-edh-b1-22** (West/East Judaeo-Christian reversal) — the Western-4 clause fails cleanly:
  none of Numidia (0.19%), Mauretania Caesariensis (1.96%), Narbonensis (1.78%), or Lugdunensis
  (0.67%) reach the required ≥5% share, a 0-for-4. This alone kills the conjecture regardless of
  the Greek-East-2 clause, which is separately UNDECIDABLE (only Macedonia, not Lycia et
  Pamphylia, clears N≥100 — T4's both-of-2 floor is not met).

---

## 6. Block B — coverage table (16 targets)

**Headline: 9 of 16 covered.** This sits materially below the registration's own stated
expectation ("~14–15 of 16 under honest cross-half exchangeability... materially lower coverage
is itself a finding about the alphabetical split, not a mere miss" — registration §5/§6 Label
2). Full per-target numbers (actual = record-weighted value over the target's own
`evaluation_set_provinces`, computed from the real landed holdout rows; B1c/B1d actual = true
counts among the 32 real holdout provinces, no rescaling needed):

| Target | Actual | Predicted point | 90% interval (or B2 ceiling) | Covered | Near boundary |
|---|---:|---:|---:|:---:|:---:|
| B1a top-1 share | 11.87% | 18.20% | [11.97%, 26.91%] | **NO** | yes (−0.77%) |
| B1b top-5 share | 48.77% | 64.21% | [50.64%, 78.09%] | **NO** | yes (−3.69%) |
| B1c count ≥1000 | 15 | 8.94 | [6, 12] | **NO** | no (+25.0%, decisive miss) |
| B1d count <300 | 12 | 16.02 | [11, 20] | YES | yes (+9.09%) |
| B2 century-share TV | TV=0.0703 | (vector) | ceiling 0.1196 | YES | no (+41.3% margin) |
| B3c non-Latin, 32-agg | 2.42% | 2.42% | [1.29%, 4.59%] | YES | no |
| B3a non-Latin, Latin-West-21 | 0.84% | 0.63% | [0.39%, 0.90%] | YES | yes (+6.72%, near high edge) |
| B3b non-Latin, Greek-East-6 | 19.03% | 24.63% | [17.71%, 38.60%] | YES | yes (+7.43%, near low edge) |
| B4a epitaph share | 47.93% | 40.46% | [27.07%, 54.68%] | YES | no |
| B4b votive share | 19.80% | 23.53% | [16.84%, 30.71%] | YES | no |
| B5a dated share | 66.40% | 80.90% | [64.43%, 91.22%] | YES | yes (+3.07%, near low edge) |
| B5b range-precision of dated | 92.92% | 95.49% | [93.37%, 96.64%] | **NO** | yes (−0.48%, whisker-close miss) |
| B6a bracket density | 61.54% | 65.33% | [62.41%, 68.47%] | **NO** | yes (−1.40%, whisker-close miss) |
| B6b no-image rate | 14.95% | 22.29% | [12.96%, 30.72%] | YES | no |
| B7a Marmor, Mediterranean-8 | 22.55% | 37.61% | [31.57%, 40.89%] | **NO** | no (−28.6%, clear miss) |
| B7b Marmor, Continental-6 | **12.85%** | 0.95% | [0.65%, 1.32%] | **NO** | no (~10× the upper edge — dramatic miss) |

**Notable pattern:** every one of the 4 clear (non-near-boundary) misses is a case where the
holdout half is **more extreme or more concentrated** than the training-derived interval
anticipated (B1c: more big provinces than predicted; B7a: less Mediterranean marble than
predicted; B7b: dramatically more Continental marble than predicted, driven almost entirely by
Noricum's 35.97% share — the same fact that kills r2-edh-b1-10 in Block A). B1a/B1b (top-1/
top-5 concentration) miss on the *low* side instead — the holdout is less top-heavy than
training implied, both by whisker-thin margins. B5b and B6a are both whisker-close misses (well
inside the 10% near-boundary band, on the low side of their intervals) rather than decisive
ones. This pattern (a cluster of tight or one-directional misses, several driven by the same
underlying province) is exactly the kind of signal the registration's own Label 2 (§6) names as
the thing being tested — a systematic confound tracking the alphabetical split — rather than
random sampling noise; the orchestrator should read the Block A/Block B results together
(Noricum's marble share breaks both r2-edh-b1-10 and B7b from the same underlying fact).

---

## 7. Verdict-summary block

**Block A (25 conjectures):**

- **10 alive (SURVIVES-LEG)**
- **4 kill-candidates**
- **1 undecidable**
- **8 withheld pending re-derivation** (near-threshold, §7 rule — includes r2-edh-b1-06's
  unconditional pre-commitment)
- **2 withheld — SQL-scope ambiguous** (r2-edh-b1-01, -02; see §1, orchestrator ruling required)

of 25 registered Block A conjectures.

**Block B (16 targets): 9 of 16 covered** (interval or, for B2, the TV-distance ceiling).

**Batched-vs-standalone equivalence** (≥3 required, task instruction): 4 instruments checked
(r2-edh-b1-01, -13, -18, -22), each executed twice via fully independent, freshly-opened
cursors — **all 4 identical**, row-for-row, both runs.

**Independent recount of the decision floor:** 32-geographic-holdout total independently
recomputed by this pass = **39,457**, matching 39,846 (ingest report holdout total) − 389
(Inc) exactly.

---

*This entry is a MACHINE-GENERATED DRAFT. It has not been reviewed and has NOT been appended
to `popper_r2_edh_registration_20260806.md` §8. An orchestrator must read it, rule on the two
SQL-scope-ambiguous instruments (§1), apply the V1 graveyard-furniture discipline to every
KILL-CANDIDATE (§5), decide the 8 near-threshold instruments and the Block B near-boundary
targets per the independent-re-derivation rule, and countersign (or amend) before any of this
becomes part of the append-only registration record. Full machine-readable values, including
every per-province row and raw query output, are in
`docs/generated/popper_r2_edh_scoring_values_20260806.json`.*
