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One Thousand and One Conjectures

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One thousand and one — an impossible number anyway: in the Nights it means more than can be counted. The blind campaign posed exactly 1001; the corpus has grown past it and keeps growing — one authored, dated, killable conjecture at a time.

One Thousand and One Conjectures

1,003 posed — and counting · measured against the literature (1001 authoritative verdicts): 95 already answered · 844 anticipated — never tested · 50 no prior located · 12 resolved (6 supported / 3 killed)

Falsifiable conjectures about the pre-print world. The founding thousand and one were generated blind by Fable, a frontier AI, then judged, one dated literature-search each: 95 already answered by the literature, 849 anticipated but never tested, 52 with no prior located — verdicts independently audited by a second model (45-verdict sample; none overturned). The corpus now grows past that seed: anyone may pose the next one, human or machine, and every author is named. Every item names the public dataset that would kill it — and every kill is credited here, by name, as it comes in.

Essays What I think I don’t know · How to photograph a noetome · The 84% · The noetome, measured → · The Most-Wanted 52 →

Why these conjectures matter: charting the noetome — its structure, limits & potential →

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Stratum
Philosophy, theology & the schools 115 Literature & poetics 80 Institutions, law & bureaucracy 42 African book cultures 40 Eastern Christian book cultures 40 Everyday & documentary writing 40 Music, liturgy & ritual 40 South Asian text cultures 40 Byzantine book culture 35 Central & Inner Asian texts 35 Jewish book cultures 35 Texts, scribes & transmission 35 Money & economy 31 Art & iconography 30 East Asian text cultures 30 Islamicate book cultures 30 Medicine, science & the occult 30 Southeast Asian text cultures 30 The cuneiform world 30 Women & textual production 30 Book economics & scribal labour 28 Method, bridges & the corpus itself 25 Pre-Columbian American writing 25 The oral-written interface 25 Engineering, materials & building 21 Networks & trade 19 Time, sky & calendars 9 Water, land & settlement 8 Chance & decision 7 Logistics & operations 7 Navigation & discovery 4 Sound & performance 3 Community-posed 2 Conflict & collapse 2
Subject
Medieval Latin institutions and prosopography 169 Material practice and ritual action 111 Islamic and Persianate source transmission 97 South and Southeast Asian inscriptional polities 93 Greek textual transmission 83 African manuscript and source ecologies 79 Early Christian and Syriac transmission 75 East Asian manuscript and canonical transmission 73 Technical, recipe, and scientific texts 57 Jewish textual transmission 51 Egyptian papyrological and epigraphic worlds 48 Ancient Near Eastern inscriptions and succession 47 Steppe and Central Asian nomadic and Silk Road sources 42 Americas pre-Columbian and contact-era records 41 Judaism 40 Roman documentary and epigraphic culture 33 Syriac Christianity 33 Theology as a science (sacred doctrine) 24 Mediterranean maritime and connectivity sources 19 Medieval Jewish history 11 Hebrew Bible 8 Lost literary works 8 Dulia (veneration of the saints) 6 Mesopotamian administrative and accounting practice 6 Oceanic and Pacific oral-dominant source worlds 6
Lens
Manuscript and scribal production 347 Channel dissociation 75 Epigraphy and damaged inscriptions 49 Market equilibrium, price, and arbitrage 34 Stemmatics: reconstructing transmission trees from shared error 26 Survival analysis: hazard rates and half-lives 26 The comparative method and natural experiments 24 Information theory: redundancy, error-correction, and compression 22 Rank-size laws and heavy tails 22 Statistical physics: transport, percolation, criticality, and tipping points 19 Capture-recapture and unseen-species estimation 18 Diffusion of innovations and contagion 18 Costly signaling and verification 17 Network topology and centrality 17 Taphonomy and survivorship bias 17 Dialect geography: isoglosses, distance-decay, and seriation 16 Operations research: queueing, inventory, and logistics optimization 14 The molecular clock: constant-rate change as a dating instrument 10 The experience curve: learning by cumulative production 3
Kill dataset
Union catalogues 169 Critical apparatus 97 Egyptian papyri & ostraca 85 Published editions 77 Dated colophons 63 Dunhuang & Turfan hoards 59 Archaeological survey 50 Digitized texts 50 Scholastic citations 50 Chant & liturgy 49 Charters & chanceries 49 Epigraphy 49 Cuneiform archives (CDLI) 46 Witness counts (Pinakes) 46 East Asian canons 34 Byzantine book epigrams (DBBE) 33 Prices & wages 33 Astronomical tables 32 Cairo Geniza 32 Mesoamerican codices 32 Islamic manuscript culture 25 Archaeometry 22 Byzantine lead seals 17 Art & iconography 16 Not yet built 15 Fragments & bindings 12 Christian Nubia 11 Numismatics 10 Letter collections 9 Khipus 8 Hadith isnads 6 Romano-British tablets 6 Novgorod birch bark 5 The corpus itself 5 D-PLACE / Seshat 3

Browse the full kill dataset registry →

Author
Fable 5 1003 RMD 1
Altitude
Record claim 761 World claim 222 Instrument claim 20
Place
Mesopotamia 15 Egypt 20 Levant & Near East 24 Aegean & Greece 28 Rome & Italy 24 Mediterranean 12 Europe 80 Islamic world 45 Steppe & Central Asia 4 South Asia 19 East Asia 55 Southeast Asia 1 Sub-Saharan Africa 9 Americas 14 Oceania & the Pacific 6 Global / method 4
Era
Bronze Age 24 Iron Age & Antiquity 45 Medieval 180 Early Modern 14 Cross-period 45
Status
Open 5 Anticipated · untested 844 No prior located 50 Already answered 95 Supported 4 Falsified 5
What the tags mean
Open
— no decisive result yet
Already answered
— the specific result is already published; the citation is on the item’s page
Anticipated · untested
— the literature anticipates the direction, but this exact test has never been run — open to kill
No prior located
— a dated search found no prior formulation (in thin fields this measures the literature’s thinness, not originality)
Supported
— a registered prediction held up in data
Falsified
— a registered prediction was refuted
testable
— a quantitative prediction + kill-dataset is registered
Triage state
Shepherd-triaged
— an authoritative Fable-authored verdict; shown as the pills above and the only tier in the headline numbers
provisional — model-triaged, shepherd review pending
— an Opus-authored first pass, not yet shepherd-confirmed and excluded from every headline figure
awaiting prior-art check — hunt open
— no triage yet; found a prior yourself? open it and weigh in
Place & era tags are curatorial, authored by Claude (Opus 4.8).

Showing 1–7 of 7 matching conjectures.

Tin percolation collapse Already answered

Bronze needs tin, and Late Bronze Age tin moved through a long-distance exchange network linking a handful of distant sources to every workshop in the eastern Mediterranean. In network terms, some cities were mere consumers while others were high-betweenness brokers — nodes…

Networks & trade Bronze Age MediterraneanLevant & Near East Ancient Near Eastern inscriptions and successionMediterranean maritime and connectivity sourcesSyriac Christianity Network topology and centralityStatistical physics: transport, percolation, criticality, and tipping points Archaeological surveyArchaeometry
Obsidian regime shifts Anticipated · untested

Obsidian is archaeology's ideal tracer: every piece can be chemically fingerprinted to its volcanic source, so its spread maps prehistoric exchange with unusual precision. Falloff with distance from source is conventionally summarized by a single distance-decay exponent — steep when goods move…

Networks & trade Cross-period Aegean & GreeceLevant & Near East Ancient Near Eastern inscriptions and successionGreek textual transmissionSyriac Christianity Dialect geography: isoglosses, distance-decay, and seriationStatistical physics: transport, percolation, criticality, and tipping points Archaeometry
Beacon channel capacity Anticipated · untested

The Byzantine empire ran a fire-signal chain that could relay news of Arab raids from the Cilician frontier to Constantinople within hours — a communication channel in the exact information-theoretic sense, and one operating under noise, since fog and haze could blind…

Networks & trade Medieval Levant & Near East Ancient Near Eastern inscriptions and successionSyriac Christianity Information theory: redundancy, error-correction, and compression Archaeological survey
Qanat exclusion zones No prior located

A qanat taps groundwater through a 'mother well' sunk into an aquifer, and every producing well draws down the water table around it in a cone whose radius is set by measurable aquifer physics — transmissivity, storativity, discharge rate. Two qanats sunk…

Networks & trade Cross-period Levant & Near East Ancient Near Eastern inscriptions and successionMaterial practice and ritual actionSyriac Christianity Statistical physics: transport, percolation, criticality, and tipping points Archaeological survey
Recycled-glass crisis index Already answered

This joins Roman economic history to archaeometric chemistry. Fresh Roman glass was made in a handful of great Levantine furnaces and shipped west as raw chunks; when supply chains ran smoothly, workshops melted fresh glass, and when they faltered, workshops fed broken…

Engineering, materials & building Iron Age & Antiquity Rome & ItalyLevant & Near East Ancient Near Eastern inscriptions and successionMaterial practice and ritual actionMediterranean maritime and connectivity sources +2 Archaeometry
The flat curve of Assur Anticipated · untested

The term structure of interest rates — the yield curve — normally slopes upward, because lenders demand compensation for longer exposure to risk. This conjecture says Old Assyrian merchant finance in the Kanesh trade refused that logic: interest in the Kultepe loan…

Money & economy Bronze Age MesopotamiaLevant & Near East Ancient Near Eastern inscriptions and successionSyriac Christianity Market equilibrium, price, and arbitrage Cuneiform archives (CDLI)