Resolution: Supported
Caveats: SUPPORTED with ~6x room over the registered bar: the wager was a mere twofold ratio and the record gave 11.89x (div-by-10: 10.27x; >=10x under every registered variant). CALIBRATION NOTE: this is the resumed loop's second supported (after breadth-india-003, which wagered 3x and got >=8.4x), and it refines the live finding -- not 'multiplicative always dies' but 'OVER-pinned magnitude dies; a low, conservatively-set bar survives with room to spare'. COVERAGE LIMITATION, stated honestly: the late group (n=20) is carried almost entirely by Book IV (16/20, the Karkota dynasty) plus 4 from Books V-VI; Books VII-VIII contribute ZERO year-stated reigns because their reigns are given only in months/days -- the granular archival form the conjecture itself predicts for the historical era -- so the measured contrast sits at the Book III/IV seam rather than spanning the full Books IV-VIII, which STRENGTHENS the registered seam-sharpness claim (the break at the Karkota accession) even as it narrows what the late-group share empirically samples. All analytic choices cut CONSERVATIVE (toward a lower R): including Books VII-VIII's short non-round reigns, or counting the 35 excluded days/months-only kings (concentrated late) as non-round, would only raise R; the sole reading that flips the verdict is the degenerate zero-fill treating a days-long reign as '0 years, divisible by 5 = round'. DISCLOSED-NO-WEIGHT: (a) OCR italic/roman type is lost, so some individual figures may be Stein-computed rather than Kalhana-stated (only Yudhisthira I's could be positively identified via footnote and is tagged as such); (b) two cells (Gokarna months, Yudhisthira I days) remain illegible without affecting any years digit; (c) single-edition extraction (Stein 1900, via the cleaner alternate scan of the same Appendix I) -- faithful to Stein's tables, not a manuscript re-collation.
Registered against M. A. Stein's chronological tables for Kalhana's Rajatarangini (1900 translation, archive.org). Claim under test (primary clause): the share of reign-lengths divisible by five (or exceeding fifty years) in the legendary Books 1-3 is AT LEAST DOUBLE the share in the historical Books 4-8.
Resolution criteria — the registered fine print
Resolution criteria: DATA: Stein's 1900 annotated-translation chronological tables (archive.org), which give every stated reign length with precision; freeze the source. POPULATION: every stated reign-length, grouped by Book (1-8); GROUP EARLY = Books 1-3, GROUP LATE = Books 4-8. ROUND-NUMBER SHARE(group) = (reigns divisible by 5 OR exceeding 50 years) / (total reigns) in that group. PRIMARY R = share(Books 1-3) / share(Books 4-8). CLAUSE PRECEDENCE: (1) INCONCLUSIVE_BY_DESIGN if Stein's tables cannot be obtained/parsed, OR fewer than 10 reigns fall in either group. (2) SUPPORTED if R >= 2. (3) KILLED if R < 2. Report both shares, per-book reign counts, R, and the SECONDARY (non-binding): whether the maximum stated reign drops by an order of magnitude across the Book 3/Book 4 boundary. If digit-preference is measured a different reasonable way (e.g. divisible-by-10, or a Benford/last-digit test), report whether the verdict is stable across it. computed_at postdates registered_at.
Known-priors disclosure — what the registrant already knew
Known priors disclosure: Held: the conjecture's reasoning (Kalhana confesses lost sources and fills the legendary early reigns with round numbers) and general knowledge Stein's tables are on archive.org. NOT computed: the divisibility shares or R. Twofold threshold is the conjecture's own.
Method and dataset — how it was measured
Firewalled blind compute (claude-sonnet-5, blind to the R>=2 threshold and to direction) fetched and parsed Stein's Appendix I with stdlib-only tooling and reported per-king reign rows, shares, and robustness variants. The Opus orchestrator independently recomputed the primary ratio from the reign list (R = 11.892, exact match) and verified key figures (incl. the 300-year Ranaditya outlier) against the source OCR. Verdict authored by claude-fable-5 per the registered clause precedence: guard (1) passed; clause (2) requires R >= 2 -- share_early = 22/37 = 0.5946, share_late = 1/20 = 0.05, R = 11.89, exceeding the wagered twofold bar by ~6x; SUPPORTED. Clause (3) never reached. Robustness: div-by-10 variant gives R = 10.27; last-digit distribution shows 40.5% of early reigns ending in 0 vs 5% of late -- the verdict is stable under every registered variant. SECONDARY (non-binding) confirmed: max stated reign drops 300 (Book III, Ranaditya) to 50 (Book IV) = 83.3% across the III/IV boundary, and even excluding the 300 outlier Book III's next-highest (Pravarasena II, 60) still exceeds Book IV's max; the one round late reign is Durlabhaka-Pratapaditya II (50), the transition king opening Book IV.
Dataset: Stein 1900 Rajatarangini Vol I, Appendix I 'Chronological and Dynastic Tables' covering all 8 Books, extracted from the cleaner-OCR alternate archive.org copy kalhanasrajatara01mast (sha256 0b33db1bac77883445e53a6348b8cf65d849c5f76e7099d0c9e16087208f73af) after the pinned RajataranginiVol1 copy's numeric columns proved garbled as pre-flagged. Extraction cross-validated three ways: (a) three spelled-out running-text reign phrases in Vol I matched the table exactly (Baka 63y13d, Gopaditya 60y6d, Nara I 40y9m); (b) accession-date chaining held across Books I-IV; (c) per-dynasty printed aggregate sums matched exactly for Books II, III, IV and to within 5/1002 years for Book I. Population: 57 reigns with an explicit stated-years figure (37 early Books I-III, 20 late Books IV-VIII); 35 kings with no years digit (days/months-only or no duration) excluded rather than zero-filled -- the conservative choice, since they concentrate in the late group and zero-filling would count them as round; Jayasimha excluded as an open reign per Stein's own footnote. Guard clause (1) NOT triggered: tables obtained and parsed, and both groups clear the >=10 floor (37 and 20).
computed 2026-07-20