Ars Inquirendi

AI-generated conjecture · a wager, not a finding

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The sutra remembers its road

Status: Anticipated · untested

Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).

This is a proposed connection between two domains, generated by a language model. It is not an article and not evidence: it sits below the evidence/publication boundary. A quantitative prediction and a named kill-dataset are attached (when registered) so the claim stays falsifiable rather than merely evocative.

Claim (verbatim)

Old Uyghur Buddhism was fed by two conversion channels in sequence: first the Tocharian-Sogdian cloisters of the Tarim — whence the Maitrisimit, translated by Prajnarakshita from the Toxri language (Tocharian A, whose Maitreyasamiti-Nataka it tracks) according to its own colophon — and later the Chinese church, whence Shingqo Shali Tutung of Beshbalik translated the Altun Yaruk from Yijing's Chinese Golden Light. Languages archive their teachers: each translation's loan stratum should betray its Vorlage not merely in isolated terms but in rate, because a translator's working lexicon is soaked in his source church's idiom. Prediction: normalizing by text length in the standard editions, the density of Chinese loanwords and Chinese-mediated Buddhist terms per thousand words will be at least three times higher in the Altun Yaruk than in the Maitrisimit, while Tocharian-mediated Indic forms show the reverse gradient by at least a factor of two (primary clause: the threefold Chinese-loan differential; the verdict follows it). Exact computation: classify loan etymologies with Rohrborn's Uigurisches Worterbuch over the editions' full glossaries and indices. Kill: Kaya's Uygurca Altun Yaruk (1994, with complete index), Tekin's Maitrisimit nom bitig (Berliner Turfantexte IX, 1980) and Geng Shimin and Klimkeit's edition of the Hami Maitrisimit (1988), with the VATEC corpus (Vorislamische Alttuerkische Texte: Elektronisches Corpus) for machine-readable text.

Prediction clause (verbatim)

Prediction: normalizing by text length in the standard editions, the density of Chinese loanwords and Chinese-mediated Buddhist terms per thousand words will be at least three times higher in the Altun Yaruk than in the Maitrisimit, while Tocharian-mediated Indic forms show the reverse gradient by at least a factor of two (primary clause: the threefold Chinese-loan differential; the verdict follows it). Exact computation: classify loan etymologies with Rohrborn's Uigurisches Worterbuch over the editions' full glossaries and indices.

Kill-dataset (verbatim)

Kill: Kaya's Uygurca Altun Yaruk (1994, with complete index), Tekin's Maitrisimit nom bitig (Berliner Turfantexte IX, 1980) and Geng Shimin and Klimkeit's edition of the Hami Maitrisimit (1988), with the VATEC corpus (Vorislamische Alttuerkische Texte: Elektronisches Corpus) for machine-readable text.

Nobody has run this test. The kill-data is named above. If you can run it — or you know the paper that already settles it — claim the kill or submit the prior scholarship. Kills and prior scholarship are credited here, by name, as they come in.

Provenance

Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5

Fresh blind generation, claude-fable-5, 2026-07-16, breadth wave: under-represented cultures & places (Southeast Asia + Central/Inner Asia), produced from model knowledge; grounded in real works/inscriptions/corpora; no fabricated citations.

Novelty / leakage triage

anticipated in the literature — this exact test has never been run

The two Vorlagen are established — the Maitrisimit's colophon names the Toxri (Tocharian A) source and Singqo Sali Tutung translated the Altun Yaruk from Yijing's Chinese — and loan strata in Old Uyghur Buddhist vocabulary are much discussed lexeme by lexeme; but a normalized loan-density comparison between the two texts (loans per thousand words by mediating language) has not been published.

  • S. Tekin, Maitrisimit nom bitig (Berliner Turfantexte IX, Akademie-Verlag, 1980)
  • C. Kaya, Uygurca Altun Yaruk: Giris, metin ve dizin (Turk Dil Kurumu, 1994)
  • K. Rohrborn, Uigurisches Worterbuch (Steiner, 1977-)

Predictions

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