Hacksilver fragmentation physics

Claim (verbatim)

Hacksilver fragmentation physics. Fracture physics and Viking economics meet in the hack-silver hoard. When brittle materials are broken repeatedly and more or less at random, the resulting fragment masses follow a universal power-law distribution — a robust result from fragmentation physics that holds for shattered rock, glass, and metal alike. Viking hack-silver — arm-rings and ingots chopped up to make payments — is exactly such a repeatedly broken brittle material, so if the chopping was economically indifferent to size, fragment masses in the hoards should follow that same universal power law. But the moment traders begin cutting silver to hit target weights — the arrival of weighed-payment standards — fragmentation stops being random, and the mass distribution should deviate from the power law with tell-tale concentrations at standard weights. Deviations thus become a dated signature of monetization.

Prediction clause (verbatim)

For each fragment in the Cuerdale and Spillings hoards, take its recorded mass and fit a power-law model to each hoard's full mass distribution, testing goodness of fit against peaked alternatives and scanning for excess concentrations at candidate standard weights. Primary clause: hoard material predating weighed-payment standards fits the power law (fit not rejected at p >= 0.1), while material from contexts where standards are attested shows power-law rejection driven by peaks at target weights; if the power law fails everywhere, or fits everywhere with no standard-weight peaks anywhere, the conjecture fails. The verdict follows the primary clause.

Kill-dataset (verbatim)

fragment masses in Cuerdale and Spillings hoards.

Novelty / leakage triage

anticipated in the literature — this exact test has never been run

Hacksilver fragment metrology is an active literature, and the 'deviation' half of the claim is already its finding in reverse: Bronze Age Near East hacksilver was fragmented to COMPLY with official weight systems, and Viking weight-economy studies (Kaupang, Hardh) document normalized weighing. The brittle-fragmentation power-law null model as a baseline against which weighed-payment standardization shows up as deviation was not located.

• Ialongo et al., 'Breaking down the bullion. The compliance of bullion-currencies with official weight-systems', Journal of Archaeological Science / ResearchGate — Fragment masses vs weight systems, ancient Near East
• Hardh, 'Wholeness and Holiness. Counting, Weighing and Valuing Silver in the Early Viking Period' — Viking silver weight economy

Predictions

No prediction registered yet.