Resolution: Killed
Caveats: The pinned PRIMARY clause decides and it fails decisively: R=0.0154 (primary, n=651) and 0.0148 (conservative, n=405) are far BELOW the registered 0.10 threshold, so the conjecture -- which wagered that MORE than 10% of sequences exceed the 13-mark lunar ceiling -- is REFUTED. (a) The corroborating label-permutation clause could NOT be run (the GLM predictors are absent from the structured SI columns and the compute rightly declined to hand-parse free-text prose); this is noted honestly and does NOT rescue the conjecture -- the primary already fails. (b) The reconstruction's N (651/405) does not exactly reproduce the authors' published 606 analysable sequences because their row->sequence split code was unpublished; but the >13 fraction is stable at ~1.5% across BOTH split rules, so the verdict is robust to that choice. (c) Substantively, the mark-counts respect the ~13 lunar-month ceiling far more than the conjecture wagered -- Bacon's ceiling holds up on THIS axis. This REFUTES a skeptical conjecture; it does NOT endorse the calendar model beyond this single test (the Garcia-Bustos et al. 2023 methodological critique is a separate matter, untouched by this arithmetic). Independent VERIFY remains open per the no-self-grading rule.
Registered against the Bacon et al. 2023 (Cambridge Archaeological Journal) supplementary dataset of Upper Palaeolithic dot/line/Y-sign sequences. PREDICTION VERBATIM: Prediction: re-tallying the Bacon et al. 2023 supplementary dataset of dot/line sequences, the fraction of sequences whose mark-count exceeds 13 (the within-year lunar-month ceiling the model imposes) will exceed 10 percent, and a label-permutation test - shuffling the species-to-birth-month assignment 10,000 times - will place the reported mark-count-versus-phenological-month correlation inside the middle 90 percent of the shuffled null (primary clause: the >10 percent over-ceiling fraction; the failed permutation test is the corroborating clause). Coverage guard: if fewer than 40 distinct (species, sequence) pairs survive the authors' own inclusion criteria the test voids for insufficient degrees of freedom rather than resolving.
Resolution criteria — the registered fine print
Resolution criteria: DENOMINATOR (verbatim): the (species, sequence) pairs in the Bacon et al. 2023 supplementary dataset that survive the authors' own inclusion criteria. NUMERATOR: sequences whose mark-count exceeds 13. DATA: download the CAJ article's supplementary dataset (freeze URL + sha256); apply the authors' stated inclusion criteria as documented in the SI. R = fraction of surviving sequences with mark-count > 13. Corroborating (non-verdict): a 10,000-iteration label-permutation test shuffling the species-to-birth-month assignment, reporting whether the observed mark-count-vs-phenological-month correlation falls inside the middle 90% of the shuffled null. CLAUSE PRECEDENCE: (1) INCONCLUSIVE_BY_DESIGN if fewer than 40 distinct (species, sequence) pairs survive the inclusion criteria (the conjecture's own void rule); (2) SUPPORTED if R > 0.10; (3) REFUTED if R <= 0.10. Compute firewalled from threshold and direction.
Known-priors disclosure — what the registrant already knew
Known priors disclosure: Triage (2026-07-17) graded adjacent and issued an ERRATUM to the conjecture's own framing: the real published methodological critique is Garcia-Bustos et al. 2023 (Journal of Paleolithic Archaeology), not a 'Meyering 2025' the generator hedged (which could not be located); Garcia-Bustos is a methodological critique, NOT the >13-mark/permutation arithmetic, so the specific test remains un-run. Direction genuinely open; the registrant leans toward the over-ceiling fraction being real given the small dataset.
Method and dataset — how it was measured
Register-before-compute: registration row in docs/generated/conjecture_prediction_batch2_20260718.json (session fable-depth-registrations-20260718-batch2, registered 2026-07-18 ~09:38Z, denominator quoted verbatim). Firewalled Sonnet compute (docs/generated/compute_bacon_calendar_20260718.json) at computed_at_utc 2026-07-18T10:30:03Z, which POSTDATES registered_at (rule 6). Inclusion criteria reconstructed from the authors' own spreadsheet ambiguity annotations (the SI narrative contains no prose exclusion section); over13 fraction (strictly >13) computed on BOTH the primary split rule (multi-register cells split per integer, N=651) and a conservative robustness rule (drop all 90 multi-value cells, N=405). The compute was firewalled from threshold and direction. Registered clause precedence [(1) VOID if <40 pairs; (2) SUPPORTED if R>0.10; (3) REFUTED if R<=0.10] applied at this shepherd stage.
Dataset: Bacon, Khatiri, Palmer, Freeth, Pettitt & Kentridge 2023, Cambridge Archaeological Journal 33/3, DOI 10.1017/S0959774322000415 -- the AUTHORS' OWN supplementary dataset (sup001.xlsx sha256 0f93a78e0ea58b2ebf72823056f90b7a4524fa3d73613770ffe5fdef651ec597, sup002.docx sha256 6f4c04b69e315e5bcd1a29ce0e000f45f8c1003abc0cff568d8324dbd5f65340, sup003.xlsx sha256 1e9ab5a7cdf0e71850be9e8d1a812c6460c53f5556f11966d36c1ed0d1d52df1; all three verified). 637 raw data rows -> 495 clean rows after the authors' own in-cell ambiguity flags. DENOMINATOR (verbatim): surviving (species, sequence) pairs -- primary split rule N=651, conservative drop-multi-value rule N=405. NUMERATOR: sequences with mark-count strictly greater than 13 (the within-year lunar-month ceiling the model imposes).
computed 2026-07-18