An anthology of poems from books that no longer exist

Claim (verbatim)

The Fūyō wakashū (風葉和歌集, Fuyo wakashu, c. 1271) is a court-style waka anthology with an unusual rule: every poem is lifted from a monogatari (物語, courtly prose tale). It gathers verse from on the order of two hundred named tales - and of those tales only about a score survive (the Genji, the Sagoromo, a handful more); the rest are sanitsu monogatari (散逸物語), lost tales known to exist only because this anthology quarried a poem from each before they vanished. The mechanism is genre-specific custody: Heian prose tales circulated as fragile, uncanonized aristocratic entertainment with no scriptural or scholastic apparatus to guarantee recopying, so all but the few that became classics simply stopped being transcribed - while the poems extracted into an imperial-style anthology rode the durable waka tradition to safety. The anthology is thus a lifeboat carrying one passenger from each of two hundred wrecks. Prediction restated: among the tales the Fuyo wakashu names as poem-sources, lost tales outnumber extant ones by at least eight to one. The book is shelved as a poetry anthology, but read as a survival census it is one of the densest registers of vanished narrative literature anywhere in the premodern world.

Prediction clause (verbatim)

Prediction: cross-listing the monogatari (物語) named as poem-sources in the Fuyo wakashu (風葉和歌集) against the corpus of extant Heian-Kamakura tales, the ratio of cited-but-lost tales to cited-and-extant tales will exceed eight to one (primary clause: the >=8:1 lost-to-extant ratio among the named source tales; the verdict follows it); a tale counts as extant only if a substantial text survives, not merely its title, and the test voids for coverage if fewer than 100 distinct source tales can be identified.

Kill-dataset (verbatim)

Kill: the Fuyo wakashu (風葉和歌集) text in the Shinpen Kokka Taikan (新編国歌大観) database and its printed critical editions, listing the tale-titles named as poem-sources and scoring each against the standard inventory of extant versus lost (散逸) monogatari.

Novelty / leakage triage

already answered in the literature

The discipline flags this correctly: the Fūyō wakashū tallies are published. Kokubungaku scholarship on 散逸物語 uses the anthology as its principal source-register, and the standard reference literature (the Iwanami 日本古典文学大辞典; Higuchi Yoshimaro's studies of lost Heian–Kamakura tales) states that it draws poems from roughly two hundred monogatari of which only about a score survive. The >=8:1 lost-to-extant ratio among the named source-tales is therefore already the published tally, not a new computation. Leaked; only the exact enumeration against the Shinpen Kokka Taikan text remains.

• 日本古典文学大辞典 (Nihon koten bungaku daijiten) (Tokyo: Iwanami Shoten), entries 風葉和歌集 / 散逸物語
• 樋口芳麻呂 (Higuchi Yoshimaro), studies of 平安・鎌倉期散逸物語 (lost Heian–Kamakura monogatari), for which the Fūyō wakashū is the principal source-register
• 新編国歌大観 (Shinpen Kokka Taikan) (Tokyo: Kadokawa Shoten), text of the 風葉和歌集

Predictions

No prediction registered yet.