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Anthologies chose the triads
Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).
Claim (verbatim)
Anthologies chose the triads. Joins the Byzantine school selection of the tragic triads to the older stratum of anthology culture: teachers selected plays not by dramatic merit but by gnomic yield — the sentences a schoolboy could copy, memorize, and deploy — and that yield had been assayed centuries earlier by the excerptors feeding Stobaeus. On this view the selection is downstream of the florilegium: the triad plays should be precisely the plays that were always over-quoted per line, and the alphabetic Euripides plays those the excerpt tradition had already passed over.
Prediction clause (verbatim)
Normalize Stobaeus quotations per 100 surviving lines for each fully extant play of Euripides. Primary clause: the select plays' median quotation rate is at least twice the alphabetic plays' median, with at most one alphabetic play intruding into the select plays' range. Secondary: the same separation holds for Sophocles' triad against his other four plays. The verdict follows the Euripides clause.
Kill-dataset (verbatim)
Kill: the source apparatus and author index of the Wachsmuth-Hense edition of Stobaeus, with play line-counts from the TLG canon.
Nobody has run this test. The kill-data is named above. If you can run it — or you know the paper that already settles it — claim the kill or submit the prior scholarship. Kills and prior scholarship are credited here, by name, as they come in.
On Inferpedia
This conjecture has been linked to the following subject pages on Inferpedia — an encyclopedia of the missing, now in limited preview.
Provenance
Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5
Generated by a fresh Fable-tier instance (claude-fable-5) at maximum effort with generation-first blindness (no repo reads, no web searches, no DB queries; single packet Write was the only tool use); title list supplied at launch, titles only, no verdicts or dossiers seen (sidecar docs/generated/conjecture_fresh_fable_w01_titlelist_20260708.md); prompt pre-committed in docs/generated/conjectures_1001_wave_ledger.md and docs/generated/conjecture_fresh_fable_w01_prompt_20260708.txt. Wave W01 of docs/GOAL_CONJECTURES_1001_CAMPAIGN_20260708.md. Novelty unverified by construction.
Novelty / leakage triage
anticipated in the literature — this exact test has never been run
That the select plays were chosen for rhetorical and gnomic quotability is a published qualitative explanation (e.g., Hecuba selected for its 'quotable traditional wisdom'), and Stobaeus is recognized as the great gnomological reservoir; but no one has normalized Stobaeus quotation rates per surviving line and tested the select-vs-alphabetic separation. The quotation-rate operationalization is un-run.
Predictions
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