AI-generated conjecture · below the evidence/publication boundary
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Translation is a life raft
Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).
Claim (verbatim)
Translation is a life raft: the Hebrew translations of Judeo-Arabic philosophy were not diffusion but evacuation across a script frontier. As Arabic competence died out among the Jews of Christian Europe, translation was the only way the tradition could survive there at all, so the two versions' manuscript geographies should be nearly disjoint — Hebrew versions in European hands, Judeo-Arabic originals persisting in the Islamicate world — rather than overlapping as they would if translation merely widened an audience. The record of copies should look like a population fleeing a flooded valley, not a species expanding its range.
Prediction clause (verbatim)
Among catalogued medieval manuscripts of Maimonides' Guide of the Perplexed and Saadia Gaon's Beliefs and Opinions with recorded provenance or script region. Primary clause: at least 90 percent of European-provenance medieval copies are of the Hebrew versions, while a majority of Oriental-provenance copies before 1500 are Judeo-Arabic; the verdict follows this clause. Secondary clause: no European-provenance Judeo-Arabic copy of the Guide is datable after 1400.
Kill-dataset (verbatim)
Kill: the Ktiv union catalogue of digitized Hebrew manuscripts (National Library of Israel) together with the Institute of Microfilmed Hebrew Manuscripts records it aggregates, filterable by work, language, and provenance.
Nobody has run this test. The kill-data is named above. If you can run it — or you know the paper that already settles it — claim the kill or submit the prior scholarship. Kills and prior scholarship are credited here, by name, as they come in.
On Inferpedia
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Provenance
Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5
Generated by a fresh Fable-tier instance (claude-fable-5) at maximum effort with generation-first blindness (no repo reads, no web searches, no DB queries; single packet Write was the only tool use); 188-title list supplied at launch, titles only, no verdicts/dossiers seen; prompt pre-committed in docs/generated/conjectures_1001_wave_ledger.md and docs/generated/conjecture_fresh_fable_w02_prompt_20260708.txt. Wave W02 of docs/GOAL_CONJECTURES_1001_CAMPAIGN_20260708.md. Novelty unverified by construction. DEVIATION DISCLOSURE: after an output-limit resume, one accidental no-op placeholder Write to the session scratchpad preceded this packet Write; nothing was read and no information entered the generation; blindness intact, but the run used two Writes, not one.
Novelty / leakage triage
anticipated in the literature — this exact test has never been run
The script-frontier geography is anticipated: the Guide's reception history documents Hebrew (ibn Tibbon/al-Harizi) transmission in Christian Europe against Judeo-Arabic persistence in the Islamicate world (earliest complete Judeo-Arabic copy: Yemen, 1380). The 90-percent provenance-partition quantification over catalogued witnesses has not been run.
Predictions
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