AI-generated conjecture · below the evidence/publication boundary
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Monopoly shows in the script
Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).
Claim (verbatim)
Monopoly shows in the script: the Mithila school's teaching monopoly in early Navya-Nyaya was a copying monopoly too, and it left a permanent physical signature. Works of the monopoly period should circulate almost exclusively in eastern scripts, while pre-monopoly Nyaya classics show pan-Indian script spread — institutional control of instruction restricts which script communities ever copy a text, and the restriction outlives the monopoly because later diffusion copies the curriculum, not the corpus. School politics of the fourteenth century should be readable today as a script histogram.
Prediction clause (verbatim)
In the New Catalogus Catalogorum records and the NGMCP online catalogue, tabulate witnesses by script. Primary clause: at least 70 percent of catalogued witnesses of Gangesa's Tattvacintamani are in eastern scripts (Maithili, Bengali, and kin), whereas under 40 percent of witnesses of the Nyayasutra with Vatsyayana's Bhasya are eastern; the verdict follows this clause. Secondary clause: the eastern share for Raghunatha Siromani's Didhiti remains at least 60 percent, showing diffusion followed the school line even after the monopoly broke.
Kill-dataset (verbatim)
Kill: the New Catalogus Catalogorum (University of Madras, published volumes recording per-witness script) and the Nepal-German Manuscript Cataloguing Project online catalogue.
Nobody has run this test. The kill-data is named above. If you can run it — or you know the paper that already settles it — claim the kill or submit the prior scholarship. Kills and prior scholarship are credited here, by name, as they come in.
On Inferpedia
This conjecture has been linked to the following subject pages on Inferpedia — an encyclopedia of the missing, now in limited preview.
Provenance
Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5
Generated by a fresh Fable-tier instance (claude-fable-5) at maximum effort with generation-first blindness (no repo reads, no web searches, no DB queries; single packet Write was the only tool use); 188-title list supplied at launch, titles only, no verdicts/dossiers seen; prompt pre-committed in docs/generated/conjectures_1001_wave_ledger.md and docs/generated/conjecture_fresh_fable_w02_prompt_20260708.txt. Wave W02 of docs/GOAL_CONJECTURES_1001_CAMPAIGN_20260708.md. Novelty unverified by construction. DEVIATION DISCLOSURE: after an output-limit resume, one accidental no-op placeholder Write to the session scratchpad preceded this packet Write; nothing was read and no information entered the generation; blindness intact, but the run used two Writes, not one.
Novelty / leakage triage
anticipated in the literature — this exact test has never been run
The Mithila teaching monopoly in early Navya-Nyaya is standard published history (D. Bhattacharya), anticipating the institutional-control mechanism. The physical-signature operationalization — script-wise tabulation of Tattvacintamani witnesses in NCC/NGMCP against pre-monopoly Nyaya classics — has not been run.
Predictions
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