AI-generated conjecture · below the evidence/publication boundary
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Classics swell, collections shrink
Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).
Claim (verbatim)
Classics swell, collections shrink. Read the dynastic bibliographic treatises as longitudinal panel data and two opposite textual metabolisms appear in one catalogue. Classics-with-commentary live in classrooms, where each generation's teaching accretes layers that get counted into the same title's juan total; individual literary collections (bieji) live in a prestige market where anthologies skim the best pieces and the residual collection decays toward the skimmed core. The jing division should inflate between catalogues while the ji division deflates — same scribes, same disasters, opposite signs.
Prediction clause (verbatim)
Match titles by author and name across the Suishu Jingjizhi (7th c.) and the Xin Tangshu Yiwenzhi (11th c.) where both record juan counts. Primary clause (verdict follows it): the median juan-count change is greater than or equal to zero for matched jing-division titles and less than or equal to zero for matched bieji, with the between-division difference in median change at least 2 juan. Secondary: the fraction of bieji that shrink exceeds the fraction of jing titles that shrink by at least 20 percentage points.
Kill-dataset (verbatim)
Kill: the Suishu Jingjizhi and the Xin Tangshu Yiwenzhi as digitized on the Kanseki Repository (Kanripo), both juan-counted and matchable title by title. Resolvable against Kanripo without new ingestion.
Nobody has run this test. The kill-data is named above. If you can run it — or you know the paper that already settles it — claim the kill or submit the prior scholarship. Kills and prior scholarship are credited here, by name, as they come in.
On Inferpedia
This conjecture has been linked to the following subject pages on Inferpedia — an encyclopedia of the missing, now in limited preview.
Provenance
Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5
Generated by a fresh Fable-tier instance (claude-fable-5) at maximum effort with generation-first blindness (no repo reads, no web searches, no DB queries); 248-title list supplied at launch, titles only, no verdicts/dossiers seen; prompt pre-committed in docs/generated/conjectures_1001_wave_ledger.md and docs/generated/conjecture_fresh_fable_w04_prompt_20260708.txt. Wave W04 of docs/GOAL_CONJECTURES_1001_CAMPAIGN_20260708.md. Novelty unverified by construction. An output-token limit interrupted the first response turn before any tool call was made; the packet was still produced in a single Write with no information ingress.
Novelty / leakage triage
anticipated in the literature — this exact test has never been run
Matching titles and juan counts across the Suishu Jingjizhi and Tang bibliographic treatises is standard practice for tracking textual loss title-by-title, but no located work treats the catalogues as panel data testing opposite jing-inflation versus bieji-deflation metabolisms.
Predictions
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