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AI-generated conjecture · below the evidence/publication boundary

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Dharani leak the sound change

Status: Anticipated · untested

Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).

This is a proposed connection between two domains, generated by a language model. It is not an article and not evidence: it sits below the evidence/publication boundary. A quantitative prediction and a named kill-dataset are attached (when registered) so the claim stays falsifiable rather than merely evocative.

Claim (verbatim)

Dharani leak the sound change. Ritual efficacy makes transliteration the fast phonological channel: a dharani works only if pronounced right, so spell-transcription is re-tuned to the living mouth generation by generation — Amoghavajra's 8th-century re-transcriptions replacing older ones is the institution admitting as much. Regulated verse rhymes to the book, the Qieyun tradition frozen by examination culture. Any medieval change in finals should therefore surface in Buddhist transliteration equivalences generations before poets are willing to rhyme it — the monk's mouth outruns the examiner's dictionary.

Prediction clause (verbatim)

For two datable changes in finals — the -m/-n coda merger and the weakening of entering-tone stop codas — date (i) the first systematic new-value equivalences in dated dharani transliteration corpora and (ii) the first tolerated cross-category rhymes reaching a 1 percent rate among dated poems. Primary clause (verdict follows it): for both changes, attestation (i) precedes attestation (ii) by at least 150 years. Secondary: within verse, exam-anchored regulated shi lag ci and popular song in tolerating the same rhymes.

Kill-dataset (verbatim)

Kill: CBETA/SAT dated esoteric transliteration corpora (the Amoghavajra-era dharani texts with Taisho numbers) against the Sou-yun rhyme database over the Quan Tang shi and Quan Song ci electronic corpora. Resolvable against open corpora without new ingestion.

Nobody has run this test. The kill-data is named above. If you can run it — or you know the paper that already settles it — claim the kill or submit the prior scholarship. Kills and prior scholarship are credited here, by name, as they come in.

On Inferpedia

This conjecture has been linked to the following subject pages on Inferpedia — an encyclopedia of the missing, now in limited preview.

Provenance

Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5

Generated by a fresh Fable-tier instance (claude-fable-5) at maximum effort with generation-first blindness (no repo reads, no web searches, no DB queries); 248-title list supplied at launch, titles only, no verdicts/dossiers seen; prompt pre-committed in docs/generated/conjectures_1001_wave_ledger.md and docs/generated/conjecture_fresh_fable_w04_prompt_20260708.txt. Wave W04 of docs/GOAL_CONJECTURES_1001_CAMPAIGN_20260708.md. Novelty unverified by construction. An output-token limit interrupted the first response turn before any tool call was made; the packet was still produced in a single Write with no information ingress.

Novelty / leakage triage

anticipated in the literature — this exact test has never been run

Dharani transliterations are an established fast channel for Tang phonological change (e.g. the denasalization study from dharani transcription characters), and Buddhist transcriptional evidence is routinely set against rhyme-book conservatism; the two-change lead-time race against dated rhyming tolerance is un-run.

Predictions

No prediction registered yet.

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