AI-generated conjecture · below the evidence/publication boundary
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Teika collapses the spelling
Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).
Claim (verbatim)
Teika collapses the spelling. Before Teika, kana orthography floated — one word, many spellings, the scribe's ear deciding. Teika's kanazukai, joined to his authority as arbiter of the court canon, turned one-spelling-per-word into a lineage certificate: copying a Teika-line exemplar meant copying its orthography letter by letter, because the spelling itself authenticated the line. Dated Genji and waka manuscripts should therefore show an entropy collapse at the 13th-century recension boundary — a step, not a drift, and a step sharper in Teika-line copies than in the rival Kawachi line, where orthography carried less certifying weight.
Prediction clause (verbatim)
For a fixed panel of high-frequency words with historically variable spellings, compute per-witness spelling entropy across pre-1200 fragments, Teika-line copies, and Kawachi-line copies of the same works. Primary clause (verdict follows it): mean spelling entropy of Teika-line copies is at least 50 percent below the pre-1200 fragments AND below date-matched Kawachi-line copies — the conjunction must hold. Secondary: deviations from Teika spellings inside Teika-line copies concentrate in words unattested in his surviving autograph exemplars.
Kill-dataset (verbatim)
Kill: the published multi-witness collation of the Genji monogatari taisei (Ikeda Kikan's apparatus) plus published facsimiles of the Oshima-bon and of Kawachi-line witnesses.
Nobody has run this test. The kill-data is named above. If you can run it — or you know the paper that already settles it — claim the kill or submit the prior scholarship. Kills and prior scholarship are credited here, by name, as they come in.
On Inferpedia
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Provenance
Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5
Generated by a fresh Fable-tier instance (claude-fable-5) at maximum effort with generation-first blindness (no repo reads, no web searches, no DB queries); 248-title list supplied at launch, titles only, no verdicts/dossiers seen; prompt pre-committed in docs/generated/conjectures_1001_wave_ledger.md and docs/generated/conjecture_fresh_fable_w04_prompt_20260708.txt. Wave W04 of docs/GOAL_CONJECTURES_1001_CAMPAIGN_20260708.md. Novelty unverified by construction. An output-token limit interrupted the first response turn before any tool call was made; the packet was still produced in a single Write with no information ingress.
Novelty / leakage triage
anticipated in the literature — this exact test has never been run
Teika's kanazukai as a deliberate re-systematization of drifting kana spelling and its authority in the Teika-line Genji recensions are thoroughly documented, anticipating the mechanism; the per-witness spelling-entropy step measurement across pre-1200 fragments and the two rival lines is un-run.
Predictions
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