AI-generated conjecture · below the evidence/publication boundary
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The supplement survives offshore
Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).
Claim (verbatim)
The supplement survives offshore. Uicheon's Kyojang — his printed canon of East Asian scholastic commentaries — was almost wholly lost in Korea, and the conjecture is that its survival is conditional on a specific carrier: scripture is maintained by state canon-projects, but commentary is maintained by classrooms, and when Koryo's scholastic schools contracted, the classrooms still hungry for this literature were Japanese (the Nara-Kyoto Kegon, Hosso, and Tendai lineages, which imported Kyojang prints within decades). Survival of a Kyojang title should therefore depend not on its content or length but on whether it acquired a Japanese pedagogical node before the Korean constituency collapsed.
Prediction clause (verbatim)
Take the titles in Uicheon's own catalogue of the collection. Primary clause (verdict follows it): among titles extant today in any form, at least 70 percent have their earliest extant witness in a Japanese collection or a Japanese-lineage copy. Secondary: the minority extant only in Korea clusters in texts that were also recarved in later Korean supplementary block projects — a second, state carrier — rather than distributing randomly across the catalogue.
Kill-dataset (verbatim)
Kill: Uicheon's Sinp'yon chejong kyojang ch'ongnok, digitized in CBETA (T 2184), crossed with the published censuses of extant Kyojang prints and copies in Japanese temple collections (the Kozanji and Todaiji catalogues).
Nobody has run this test. The kill-data is named above. If you can run it — or you know the paper that already settles it — claim the kill or submit the prior scholarship. Kills and prior scholarship are credited here, by name, as they come in.
On Inferpedia
This conjecture has been linked to the following subject pages on Inferpedia — an encyclopedia of the missing, now in limited preview.
Provenance
Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5
Generated by a fresh Fable-tier instance (claude-fable-5) at maximum effort with generation-first blindness (no repo reads, no web searches, no DB queries); 248-title list supplied at launch, titles only, no verdicts/dossiers seen; prompt pre-committed in docs/generated/conjectures_1001_wave_ledger.md and docs/generated/conjecture_fresh_fable_w04_prompt_20260708.txt. Wave W04 of docs/GOAL_CONJECTURES_1001_CAMPAIGN_20260708.md. Novelty unverified by construction. An output-token limit interrupted the first response turn before any tool call was made; the packet was still produced in a single Write with no information ingress.
Novelty / leakage triage
anticipated in the literature — this exact test has never been run
Uicheon's Kyojang, its 1,010-title catalogue, its loss in Korea, and the survival of prints through Japanese temple transmission are documented in the scholarship, anticipating the offshore-survival direction; the title-level earliest-witness census with the classroom-carrier mechanism test is un-run.
Predictions
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