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The model book is colour-blind
Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).
“Anticipated in print” means the direction of this claim already appears in scholarship, while this exact test has never been run — it records prior art, not proof; nothing here counts as supported or falsified until a registered resolution says so.
Claim (verbatim)
The model book is colour-blind. Pattern sheets travelled as outline drawings with colour given verbally — the Göttingen Model Book literally writes out its recipes — while copying from a finished exemplar transmits paint by eye but forces a freehand redraw. Two transmission channels, opposite bandwidths: model-book descent should show tight geometry with a loose palette, exemplar descent a tight palette with loose geometry. The variance signature identifies the channel even where no model book survives.
Prediction clause (verbatim)
Primary clause (the verdict follows it): the sign of the difference between shape fidelity and colour fidelity is positive for motif groups scholarship ties to pattern-sheet transmission (the Göttingen Model Book acanthus group) and negative for direct exemplar copies among coloured witnesses of the Utrecht Psalter recension (the Eadwine Psalter against Paris BnF lat. 8846), measured on matched motif pairs as outline correlation versus hue correlation in calibrated digitizations. Secondary clause: in the model-book arm, shape correlation exceeds colour correlation by at least 0.2.
Kill-dataset (verbatim)
Kill: the fully digitized Utrecht Psalter (Utrecht University), British Library Harley 603, the Eadwine Psalter (Trinity College Cambridge), BnF lat. 8846 on Gallica, and the digitized Göttingen Model Book with its associated decorated volumes.
In the kill-dataset registry:
Nobody has run this test. The kill-data is named above. If you can run it — or you know the paper that already settles it — claim the kill or submit the prior scholarship. Kills and prior scholarship are credited here, by name, as they come in.
On Inferpedia
This conjecture is linked to the following pages on Inferpedia, an encyclopedia of the missing — working atlas pages, some still early scaffolding.
Provenance
Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5
Generated by a fresh Fable-tier instance (claude-fable-5) at maximum effort with generation-first blindness (no repo reads, no web searches, no DB queries); 278-title list supplied at launch, titles only, no verdicts/dossiers seen; prompt pre-committed in docs/generated/conjectures_1001_wave_ledger.md and docs/generated/conjecture_fresh_fable_w05_prompt_20260708.txt. Wave W05 of docs/GOAL_CONJECTURES_1001_CAMPAIGN_20260708.md. Novelty unverified by construction. A platform output-limit resume occurred before the single Write; no additional tool calls or information ingress occurred.
Novelty / leakage triage
anticipated in the literature — this exact test has never been run
The two transmission channels are documented — the Göttingen Model Book transmits outline plus verbal colour recipes, and the Utrecht Psalter recension exemplifies direct exemplar copying — but the opposed shape-versus-colour variance signature has not been measured.
Predictions
No prediction registered yet.
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