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Interlace slips map the work
Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).
Claim (verbatim)
Interlace slips map the work. Insular interlace obeys strict under-over alternation, and its rare violations are treated as random lapses. The conjecture: the slips are structural — they concentrate where the drawing process broke off, at panel joins, pigment-field boundaries, and day-work seams — so error positions chart the production sequence the way casting flash marks a mould join. And because copyists reproduce crossings mechanically, a shared error at the topologically same crossing is a stemmatic character for ornament transmission.
Prediction clause (verbatim)
Primary clause (the verdict follows it): in the digitized carpet and incipit pages of the Lindisfarne Gospels and the Book of Kells, under-over violations occur within two strand-widths of a panel or pigment-field boundary at at least five times the per-crossing interior rate. Secondary clause: at least one pair of related pages or manuscripts shares a violation at the same topological crossing, beyond what independent error rates predict.
Kill-dataset (verbatim)
Kill: the British Library's digitized Lindisfarne Gospels (Cotton MS Nero D IV) and Trinity College Dublin's high-resolution digitized Book of Kells.
Nobody has run this test. The kill-data is named above. If you can run it — or you know the paper that already settles it — claim the kill or submit the prior scholarship. Kills and prior scholarship are credited here, by name, as they come in.
On Inferpedia
This conjecture has been linked to the following subject pages on Inferpedia — an encyclopedia of the missing, now in limited preview.
Provenance
Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5
Generated by a fresh Fable-tier instance (claude-fable-5) at maximum effort with generation-first blindness (no repo reads, no web searches, no DB queries); 278-title list supplied at launch, titles only, no verdicts/dossiers seen; prompt pre-committed in docs/generated/conjectures_1001_wave_ledger.md and docs/generated/conjecture_fresh_fable_w05_prompt_20260708.txt. Wave W05 of docs/GOAL_CONJECTURES_1001_CAMPAIGN_20260708.md. Novelty unverified by construction. A platform output-limit resume occurred before the single Write; no additional tool calls or information ingress occurred.
Novelty / leakage triage
anticipated in the literature — this exact test has never been run
Mathematical analysis of insular interlace crossing structure and alternation exists (Cromwell), and reconstruction of production sequence from construction marks on insular pages is a practiced approach; mapping under-over violations onto panel joins and shared-error stemmatics is un-run.
Predictions
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