AI-generated conjecture · below the evidence/publication boundary
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Corbels come in runs
Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).
Claim (verbatim)
Corbels come in runs. Romanesque corbel tables read as carnivalesque miscellany, but carving proceeded bay by bay from scaffolds, one carver working consecutive blocks with whatever type he was fluent in that week. Subject types should therefore show strong serial autocorrelation around the eaves — runs of heads, then beasts, then musicians — with run boundaries falling at structural bay divisions. The iconography is a work diary; the scaffolding schedule is recoverable from subject order alone.
Prediction clause (verbatim)
Primary clause (the verdict follows it): across at least 30 corbel tables documented with 20 or more corbels each, the median probability that adjacent corbels share a subject class exceeds the shuffled-within-building baseline by a factor of at least 1.8. Secondary clause: runs terminate at bay and buttress boundaries at at least twice the interior termination rate.
Kill-dataset (verbatim)
Kill: the Corpus of Romanesque Sculpture in Britain and Ireland (CRSBI), a free online corpus with per-corbel photographs and positions around each building.
Nobody has run this test. The kill-data is named above. If you can run it — or you know the paper that already settles it — claim the kill or submit the prior scholarship. Kills and prior scholarship are credited here, by name, as they come in.
On Inferpedia
This conjecture has been linked to the following subject pages on Inferpedia — an encyclopedia of the missing, now in limited preview.
Provenance
Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5
Generated by a fresh Fable-tier instance (claude-fable-5) at maximum effort with generation-first blindness (no repo reads, no web searches, no DB queries); 278-title list supplied at launch, titles only, no verdicts/dossiers seen; prompt pre-committed in docs/generated/conjectures_1001_wave_ledger.md and docs/generated/conjecture_fresh_fable_w05_prompt_20260708.txt. Wave W05 of docs/GOAL_CONJECTURES_1001_CAMPAIGN_20260708.md. Novelty unverified by construction. A platform output-limit resume occurred before the single Write; no additional tool calls or information ingress occurred.
Novelty / leakage triage
anticipated in the literature — this exact test has never been run
Corbel-table iconography and workshop/carver attribution are studied (Magrill; CRSBI documentation per corbel), and bay-by-bay construction reading is standard in architectural sculpture; the serial-autocorrelation test of subject runs against bay boundaries is un-run.
Predictions
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