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Ivories are set menus
Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).
“Anticipated in print” means the direction of this claim already appears in scholarship, while this exact test has never been run — it records prior art, not proof; nothing here counts as supported or falsified until a registered resolution says so.
Claim (verbatim)
Ivories are set menus. Gothic Passion diptychs were serial products of Parisian workshops. If scene selection were devotionally bespoke, observed combinations would spread across the combinatorial space of available scenes; if workshop-standardized, they collapse into a few fixed menus, and menu identity should track workshop groups more reliably than carving-style connoisseurship does — iconographic choice as the fingerprint, style as the noise.
Prediction clause (verbatim)
Primary clause (the verdict follows it): among two-register Passion diptychs in the Gothic Ivories database, the ten most frequent scene-set combinations account for at least 60 percent of objects, versus under 20 percent expected from independent draws matched to marginal scene frequencies. Secondary clause: menu clusters align with published workshop groupings significantly above chance.
Kill-dataset (verbatim)
Kill: the Gothic Ivories Project database (Courtauld Institute), publicly searchable with scene-level cataloguing of every register.
In the kill-dataset registry:
Nobody has run this test. The kill-data is named above. If you can run it — or you know the paper that already settles it — claim the kill or submit the prior scholarship. Kills and prior scholarship are credited here, by name, as they come in.
On Inferpedia
This conjecture is linked to the following pages on Inferpedia, an encyclopedia of the missing — working atlas pages, some still early scaffolding.
Provenance
Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5
Generated by a fresh Fable-tier instance (claude-fable-5) at maximum effort with generation-first blindness (no repo reads, no web searches, no DB queries); 278-title list supplied at launch, titles only, no verdicts/dossiers seen; prompt pre-committed in docs/generated/conjectures_1001_wave_ledger.md and docs/generated/conjecture_fresh_fable_w05_prompt_20260708.txt. Wave W05 of docs/GOAL_CONJECTURES_1001_CAMPAIGN_20260708.md. Novelty unverified by construction. A platform output-limit resume occurred before the single Write; no additional tool calls or information ingress occurred.
Novelty / leakage triage
anticipated in the literature — this exact test has never been run
Serial Parisian mass production of Passion diptychs with standardized scene programmes and workshop groupings is established (Met; Koechlin-line groupings underpinning the Gothic Ivories Project); the combinatorial concentration measurement against independent-draw nulls is un-run.
Sources cited by the triage
Predictions
No prediction registered yet.
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