AI-generated conjecture · below the evidence/publication boundary
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Glass runs on book time
Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).
Claim (verbatim)
Glass runs on book time. Ornament in stained glass — border types, diaper grounds, grisaille foliage — is studied inside glass scholarship, but glaziers stocked their cartoon chests from painters' books. Ornament families should therefore appear in dated manuscripts before dated glass of the same region, with a consistent pipeline lag; figural iconography, governed by patrons and theologians rather than pattern stocks, should show no consistent lead in either direction. The asymmetry between ornament and figure is the tell.
Prediction clause (verbatim)
Primary clause (the verdict follows it): for at least 12 ornament families in England and France, 1180-1350, manuscript attestation precedes regional glass attestation in at least 70 percent of families, with a median lag between 10 and 30 years. Secondary contrast clause: for a matched list of figural iconographic types, neither medium leads in more than 60 percent of cases.
Kill-dataset (verbatim)
Kill: the Corpus Vitrearum Medii Aevi (Great Britain) free online picture archive of dated windows, set against dated books in the British Library Catalogue of Illuminated Manuscripts.
Nobody has run this test. The kill-data is named above. If you can run it — or you know the paper that already settles it — claim the kill or submit the prior scholarship. Kills and prior scholarship are credited here, by name, as they come in.
On Inferpedia
This conjecture has been linked to the following subject pages on Inferpedia — an encyclopedia of the missing, now in limited preview.
Provenance
Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5
Generated by a fresh Fable-tier instance (claude-fable-5) at maximum effort with generation-first blindness (no repo reads, no web searches, no DB queries); 278-title list supplied at launch, titles only, no verdicts/dossiers seen; prompt pre-committed in docs/generated/conjectures_1001_wave_ledger.md and docs/generated/conjecture_fresh_fable_w05_prompt_20260708.txt. Wave W05 of docs/GOAL_CONJECTURES_1001_CAMPAIGN_20260708.md. Novelty unverified by construction. A platform output-limit resume occurred before the single Write; no additional tool calls or information ingress occurred.
Novelty / leakage triage
anticipated in the literature — this exact test has never been run
That glaziers drew on circulating pattern books shared with illuminators, and that late 12th-century glass resembles regional manuscript illumination, is recognized in glass scholarship, anticipating the pipeline; the dated ornament-versus-figure lag census across CVMA and manuscript catalogues is un-run.
Predictions
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