AI-generated conjecture · below the evidence/publication boundary
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The margin cools after the initial
Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).
Claim (verbatim)
The margin cools after the initial. Bas-de-page drolleries look like free invention scattered at whim, but the planner's and patron's attention concentrated at the liturgical divisions, where the opening had to perform. If marginal invention is budgeted attention rather than a programme, drollery density and inventiveness should decay with folio distance from the nearest major division along a roughly geometric profile — and the same decay shape should recur in books from unrelated shops, because it traces attention, not iconography.
Prediction clause (verbatim)
Primary clause (the verdict follows it): in at least 10 digitized psalters and books of hours with continuous marginal programmes, marginal-figure density in the five folios after a major textual division exceeds mid-interval density by at least 50 percent, with monotone decay across at least 70 percent of division intervals. Secondary clause: the unique-type fraction of hybrids and monsters decays in parallel, so invention and density cool together.
Kill-dataset (verbatim)
Kill: the British Library's fully digitized Luttrell Psalter (Add MS 42130) and Gorleston Psalter (Add MS 49622), with further marginal psalters on Digital Bodleian.
Nobody has run this test. The kill-data is named above. If you can run it — or you know the paper that already settles it — claim the kill or submit the prior. Kills and priors are credited here, by name, as they come in.
In the atlas
This conjecture is bridged, as an L1 lead, onto these Inferpedia subject pages.
Provenance
Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5
Generated by a fresh Fable-tier instance (claude-fable-5) at maximum effort with generation-first blindness (no repo reads, no web searches, no DB queries); 278-title list supplied at launch, titles only, no verdicts/dossiers seen; prompt pre-committed in docs/generated/conjectures_1001_wave_ledger.md and docs/generated/conjecture_fresh_fable_w05_prompt_20260708.txt. Wave W05 of docs/GOAL_CONJECTURES_1001_CAMPAIGN_20260708.md. Novelty unverified by construction. A platform output-limit resume occurred before the single Write; no additional tool calls or information ingress occurred.
Novelty / leakage triage
anticipated in the literature — this exact test has never been run
Marginal programmes are read against the psalter's textual divisions and patronal attention in Luttrell scholarship, and the hierarchy of decoration at major divisions is a cataloguing commonplace, anticipating the direction; the geometric decay profile of drollery density and inventiveness is un-measured.
Predictions
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