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The donor grows only in the West
Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).
“Anticipated in print” means the direction of this claim already appears in scholarship, while this exact test has never been run — it records prior art, not proof; nothing here counts as supported or falsified until a registered resolution says so.
Claim (verbatim)
The donor grows only in the West. Donor portraiture is one genre under two theologies of presence. Latin donation imagery kept renegotiating scale as lay patronage broadened and purgatorial accounting personalized the stakes; the Byzantine proskynesis format was liturgically frozen. The handbook impression that donors get bigger is not the claim — the claim is the divergence: a dated, monotone Latin growth curve with a specific crossing point, against a Byzantine flat line over the same centuries.
Prediction clause (verbatim)
Primary clause (the verdict follows it, requiring both arms): measured on at least 100 dated Latin and 50 dated Byzantine donor images, the Latin donor-to-holy-figure height ratio shows a positive secular trend whose decadal median crosses 0.85 between 1380 and 1440, while the Byzantine trend over 1100-1450 is statistically indistinguishable from zero, the median ratio staying within plus or minus 0.05 of its twelfth-century value.
Kill-dataset (verbatim)
Kill: the Index of Medieval Art donor-image records with dates, measured on British Library, BnF, and e-codices digitizations.
In the kill-dataset registry:
Nobody has run this test. The kill-data is named above. If you can run it — or you know the paper that already settles it — claim the kill or submit the prior scholarship. Kills and prior scholarship are credited here, by name, as they come in.
On Inferpedia
This conjecture is linked to the following pages on Inferpedia, an encyclopedia of the missing — working atlas pages, some still early scaffolding.
Provenance
Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5
Generated by a fresh Fable-tier instance (claude-fable-5) at maximum effort with generation-first blindness (no repo reads, no web searches, no DB queries); 278-title list supplied at launch, titles only, no verdicts/dossiers seen; prompt pre-committed in docs/generated/conjectures_1001_wave_ledger.md and docs/generated/conjecture_fresh_fable_w05_prompt_20260708.txt. Wave W05 of docs/GOAL_CONJECTURES_1001_CAMPAIGN_20260708.md. Novelty unverified by construction. A platform output-limit resume occurred before the single Write; no additional tool calls or information ingress occurred.
Novelty / leakage triage
anticipated in the literature — this exact test has never been run
The Latin growth arm is handbook knowledge — donors moving from diminutive to three-quarter to equal scale by the 15th century — which the claim itself concedes; the dated two-arm divergence test with a specific crossing point against a flat Byzantine series is un-run.
Sources cited by the triage
Predictions
No prediction registered yet.
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