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Polemic peaks at the peace table
Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).
“Anticipated in print” means the direction of this claim already appears in scholarship, while this exact test has never been run — it records prior art, not proof; nothing here counts as supported or falsified until a registered resolution says so.
Claim (verbatim)
Byzantium produced a large literature of anti-Latin polemic — treatises on the errors of the Franks, the azymes, the filioque. Instinct says such writing surges when Latins do their worst, above all after the sack of Constantinople in 1204. This conjecture says the copying record peaks instead around the moments of attempted reunion — the councils of Lyon (1274) and Ferrara-Florence (1438-39) — because polemic is a negotiating brief, not a war cry: you copy the dossier of differences when your side must argue them at a table, not when the enemy has already burned your library. Hatred needs no bibliography; diplomacy does. If this holds, spikes in the manuscript production of any controversy literature are a proxy for negotiation, not for conflict, which reverses how we read copying surges across medieval polemical corpora.
Prediction clause (verbatim)
Dated witnesses of the core anti-Latin corpus in Pinakes will show production peaks in the windows 1265-1295 and 1425-1455 that each exceed the 1200-1230 window by at least a factor of two, counted as securely dated or datable witnesses per thirty-year bin normalized by overall Greek manuscript production per bin. Primary clause: the Ferrara-Florence window (1425-1455) is the absolute maximum.
Kill-dataset (verbatim)
Kill: in-house Pinakes Greek works-by-witnesses counts with witness datings for the anti-Latin dossier (works of the Contra Latinos tradition).
In the kill-dataset registry:
Nobody has run this test. The kill-data is named above. If you can run it — or you know the paper that already settles it — claim the kill or submit the prior scholarship. Kills and prior scholarship are credited here, by name, as they come in.
On Inferpedia
This conjecture is linked to the following pages on Inferpedia, an encyclopedia of the missing — working atlas pages, some still early scaffolding.
Provenance
Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5
Blind fresh claude-fable-5 subagent (max effort), single-Write discipline, 2026-07-09. W07, first wave of the operator-directed medieval-European block (W07-W10).
Novelty / leakage triage
anticipated in the literature — this exact test has never been run
Searched anti-Latin polemic and the union councils. Composition of polemical dossiers around Lyon and Ferrara-Florence is well documented, anticipating the negotiating-brief mechanism, but dated-witness copying curves per thirty-year bin have not been produced.
Sources cited by the triage
Predictions
No prediction registered yet.
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