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Penance comes in denominations
Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).
“Anticipated in print” means the direction of this claim already appears in scholarship, while this exact test has never been run — it records prior art, not proof; nothing here counts as supported or falsified until a registered resolution says so.
Claim (verbatim)
Early medieval penitentials priced sins in time — days, quarantines, years of fasting — the way mints price value in coins. The conjecture is that penance values are genuinely denominational: they cluster on a small set of canonical quantities (7, 10, 40 days; 1, 3, 7 years) far beyond what convenience explains, and the number of distinct denominations shrinks over time as commutation (converting penance to psalms, alms, or payment) forces values to be easily convertible. Confessors needed tariffs they could remember, compare, and exchange; a thick menu of values resists conversion, a thin one enables it. If so, penitential literature behaved like a currency system undergoing consolidation, and the arithmetic of forgiveness can be tracked like a monetary reform.
Prediction clause (verbatim)
Primary clause: across edited penitentials, penance durations cluster on the canonical values (7, 10, 40 days; 1, 3, 7 years and their doublings) at a rate far exceeding a uniform or smooth baseline, and the count of distinct values per text falls from fifteen or more in the Irish tradition to eight or fewer in post-Carolingian manuals. Secondary: texts containing commutation tables use fewer distinct base values than those without.
Kill-dataset (verbatim)
The edited penitential corpora of Wasserschleben (Die Bussordnungen der abendlandischen Kirche) and Schmitz (Die Bussbucher), plus the CCSL penitential volumes.
In the kill-dataset registry:
Nobody has run this test. The kill-data is named above. If you can run it — or you know the paper that already settles it — claim the kill or submit the prior scholarship. Kills and prior scholarship are credited here, by name, as they come in.
On Inferpedia
This conjecture is linked to the following pages on Inferpedia, an encyclopedia of the missing — working atlas pages, some still early scaffolding.
Provenance
Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5
This packet was produced in a single blind Write from model-internal knowledge only, with no repository reads, web access, database queries, or any tool call other than this Write.
Novelty / leakage triage
anticipated in the literature — this exact test has never been run
The tariff structure and commutation systems of penitentials are thoroughly described (Irish vs Frankish traditions, standard fasting periods), but the monetary-system reading — denomination clustering beyond baseline and a shrinking value menu driven by commutability — has not been quantified.
Sources cited by the triage
Predictions
No prediction registered yet.
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