AI-generated conjecture · below the evidence/publication boundary
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Onfim had classmates
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Claim (verbatim)
The schoolboy Onfim's doodled exercises are the mascot of medieval childhood, but the real question is institutional: were Novgorod's children taught in household clusters or at a central church school? Excavated exercise sheets carry findspots, and the two regimes predict different spatial statistics — household teaching scatters exercises across domestic plots in proportion to each plot's other writing activity, while a school concentrates them near one precinct regardless of the plots' output. The dendro-dated, plot-mapped corpus makes this a solvable point-pattern problem. Whichever way it falls, the result replaces an anecdote with the first measured geography of elementary instruction in a medieval town.
Prediction clause (verbatim)
In gramoty.ru, exercise texts (alphabets, syllabaries, copy warm-ups) are distributed across estates in proportion to each estate's non-exercise letter counts, with no significant concentration residual — supporting household instruction. Primary clause: the proportionality test (chi-squared on exercise versus non-exercise counts per estate) — a statistical test decisive in either direction.
Kill-dataset (verbatim)
gramoty.ru (text-type and findspot metadata).
Nobody has run this test. The kill-data is named above. If you can run it — or you know the paper that already settles it — claim the kill or submit the prior scholarship. Kills and prior scholarship are credited here, by name, as they come in.
On Inferpedia
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Provenance
Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5
Generated blind by claude-fable-5 in a single Write from the inline prompt alone, with no file reads, web access, or database queries.
Novelty / leakage triage
anticipated in the literature — this exact test has never been run
Onfim's exercises and Novgorod elementary instruction are much discussed qualitatively, but the point-pattern operationalization — testing exercise findspots for proportionality to estates' other writing activity vs school-precinct concentration — is un-run.
Predictions
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