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The overture runs on autopilot
Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).
“Anticipated in print” means the direction of this claim already appears in scholarship, while this exact test has never been run — it records prior art, not proof; nothing here counts as supported or falsified until a registered resolution says so.
Claim (verbatim)
An oral epic performance opens under the worst working conditions — the audience still settling, the singer finding the groove — so singers open on the densest formulaic autopilot and individuate as the story takes hold. The connection joins this performance commonplace to a textual statistic: if written epics precipitated from performance, the warm-up gradient should be fossilized inside the texts as a formula-density surge at openings that decays over the first stretch of the song. Performers made it so because formulas are the low-effort gear, and effort is rationed toward the parts of a performance that hold an already-captured audience. If this holds, the proverbial blandness of epic openings becomes a quantitative signature separating performance-derived texts from literary imitations, which should lack the gradient.
Prediction clause (verbatim)
Compute formula density (share of cola paralleled elsewhere in the same singer's corpus) in a sliding window across each song. Primary clause, which decides the verdict: in at least 70% of sampled songs, density in the first 30 lines exceeds the song mean by at least 10%. Secondary clause: Iliad and Odyssey book openings show a parallel excess relative to book means.
Kill-dataset (verbatim)
The digitized Milman Parry Collection of Oral Literature: full transcriptions of sung performances, sufficient to compute within-song formula-density profiles.
In the kill-dataset registry:
Nobody has run this test. The kill-data is named above. If you can run it — or you know the paper that already settles it — claim the kill or submit the prior scholarship. Kills and prior scholarship are credited here, by name, as they come in.
On Inferpedia
This conjecture is linked to the following pages on Inferpedia, an encyclopedia of the missing — working atlas pages, some still early scaffolding.
Provenance
Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5
Composed blind by claude-fable-5 from internal knowledge with zero tool use and emitted as a single text message.
Novelty / leakage triage
anticipated in the literature — this exact test has never been run
Formula-density measurement on Parry-Lord material is a mature method and the conventionality of epic openings is a commonplace, but a within-song sliding-window density profile testing a decaying warm-up gradient across the sung corpus has not been published.
Sources cited by the triage
Predictions
No prediction registered yet.
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