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The kugyo queue
Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).
Claim (verbatim)
The kugyo queue. Priority queueing theory has a textbook pathology: give one class of customers near-absolute priority and their waiting times stay compact while low-priority waits blow up into a heavy tail. This conjecture finds that pathology in the Heian court's promotion ladder as recorded in the Kugyo bunin registers, 850-1150. Promotion from sangi to chunagon was a queue for scarce posts, and the Fujiwara capture of the regency in the tenth century converted it to near-absolute priority for northern-house Fujiwara men. Their median wait should run at half the non-Fujiwara median or less; after 969 the gap should widen by half again; and, most diagnostically, the non-Fujiwara wait distribution should develop the heavy tail the mathematics demands — top-decile waits at three times the median or more — while the Fujiwara distribution stays compact. Stable or converging waits between the two groups kill it.
Prediction clause (verbatim)
In the Kugyo bunin registers, 850-1150, the median wait from sangi to chunagon for Fujiwara northern-house men is <= 0.5x the non-Fujiwara median; after 969 the gap widens by >= 50%, and the non-Fujiwara wait distribution develops a heavy tail (top-decile waits >= 3x the median) while the Fujiwara distribution does not; stable or converging waits kill it.
Kill-dataset (verbatim)
Kill: the digitized Kugyo bunin court-appointment registers.
Nobody has run this test. The kill-data is named above. If you can run it — or you know the paper that already settles it — claim the kill or submit the prior. Kills and priors are credited here, by name, as they come in.
On Inferpedia
This conjecture has been linked to the following subject pages on Inferpedia — an encyclopedia of the missing, now in limited preview.
Provenance
Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5
Generated by a fresh Fable-tier instance at maximum effort with generation-first blindness (no repo/web/DB access); titles-only knowledge of existing items, embedded in titles_supplied per the batch-2 lane rule; prompt pre-committed in docs/GOAL_CONJECTURES_BATCH3_20260705.md (b043140). Novelty unverified by construction. titles_supplied stripped to the committed sidecar conjecture_fresh_fablemax_batch3_titles_supplied_20260705.md at import (schema additionalProperties:false; relaxation queued).
Novelty / leakage triage
no prior formulation located (search dated 2026-07-05)
The Kugyo bunin registers are documented archivally, Fujiwara promotion advantages are standard qualitative historiography, and priority-queueing theory is mature — but nothing joins them; no computed wait-time distribution or priority-class comparison was located. No prior formulation located (search dated 2026-07-05).
- 'Kugyo-bunin' (register structure) — The enabling register
Predictions
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