Resolution: Killed
Caveats: KILLED on the Japanese limb, exactly at the failure point disclosed ex ante in both the gestalt flags doc and this registration's own known-priors ('the pinned divisibility rule may misfire on the Nihon shoki, whose fabricated reigns are back-calculated and non-round (76, 33, 102...) - the registrant accepts that a kill there is a kill'). The kill is robust: under every alternative reading the compute itself documented (the Kotoku and Temmu era-change one-year variants), the Japanese gap ranges roughly 5-20pp and never reaches 25; the orchestrator independently corroborated the Japanese figures (the 60-year trio Kaika/Keiko/Seimu, Kotoku's Taika+Hakuchi = 10, the non-round 76/102/99 legendary spans) from standard reference knowledge. WHAT THE KILL MEANS, read precisely: the regularization PHENOMENON is real and strong in three of four traditions (gaps 40.87-68.75pp, sign uniform), and Japanese legendary chronology is certainly fabricated - but fabricated by CALENDRICAL BACK-CALCULATION to the 660 BCE epoch, which produces exact non-round reigns invisible to a round-number grammar. The universal that died is 'the same numeric fingerprint regardless of culture'; the divergence outcome is the informative one, and it is the kind this wave's symmetric-jeopardy design existed to produce. CALIBRATION: another over-pinned universal quantifier - 'all four, one rule' was the fatal clause; a three-tradition version would have been supported easily, and the Hebrew limb adds the familiar magnitude note (46.43% legendary vs the wagered 60% level - direction right, level overshot, though its 40.87pp gap sailed past the gap bar). REGISTRATION-GEOMETRY LESSON (second instance after the B-006 flag): the registered verdict partition had a latent dead zone - a tradition missing the 60/35 LEVELS while passing the GAP clause (the Hebrew case) would have blocked SUPPORTED without triggering KILLED had Japan passed; moot here because the Japanese gap-kill fired, but recorded as reinforcement: pin the FULL outcome partition, not just its corners. Disclosed-no-weight: the Shahnama limb's two confidence tiers and its substantial coverage failures (documented per-entry) do not bear on the verdict (the limb qualified and passed; the kill fired elsewhere). Blind compute claude-sonnet-5; verdict claude-fable-5.
OPEN prediction (cross-tradition law): in four unrelated king-list traditions (Sumerian King List; Judges through Solomon; the Shahnama's Pishdadi-Kayanid reigns; the pre-Ojin Nihon shoki) legendary-section reign lengths are schematic at >= 60% while each tradition's securely historical section sits at <= 35% - a >= 25-point regularization gap with the same sign in all four.
Resolution criteria — the registered fine print
Resolution criteria: VERBATIM PREDICTION: 'in each of the four traditions, at least 60% of legendary-section reign lengths are schematic (divisible by 10, equal to 12, 40, 72, or 120, or a multiple of 3,600 years), against at most 35% in the same tradition's securely historical section - a legendary-minus-historical gap of at least 25 percentage points with the same sign in all four; coverage guard: a tradition counts only if its legendary section supplies at least 8 numbered reigns and its historical section at least 10.' KILL VERBATIM: 'any qualifying tradition with a gap under 25 points, or with the sign reversed, kills.' OPERATIONALIZATION (pinned ex ante): Section boundaries: SKL - legendary = antediluvian rulers plus the postdiluvian dynasties of Kish I and Uruk I as given on the Weld-Blundell prism witness (CDLI/ETCSL transliteration of W-B 444); historical = the same list's Ur III and Isin sections. Hebrew (Sefaria Tanakh) - legendary = the numbered spans of Judges through Solomon (Judges; 1 Sam; 2 Sam; 1 Kings 1-11, incl. judge-and-oppression spans and the 40/80-year blocks); historical = the Judah line Rehoboam through Zedekiah (1 Kings 12 - 2 Kings 25). Shahnama (Ganjoor; SNAPSHOT PIN per the persianate-ganjoor-008 lesson: record retrieval date and enumerate the reign-length statements present in the text as retrieved) - legendary = Pishdadi + Kayanid reign lengths stated in the poem; historical = the Sasanian section's stated reign lengths in the same poem; if reign lengths prove non-enumerable from the retrieved text, that limb reports coverage-failure - no substitute source is permitted. Nihon shoki (Aston's 1896 translation, archive.org) - legendary = Jimmu through Chuai; historical = Kinmei through Jito. COUNTING RULES: a reign enters the denominator if a whole-number span in years is stated; spans given with months/days attached (e.g. 7 years 6 months) enter the denominator and are NOT schematic; months/days-only entries are excluded and reported. The schematic set is exactly the verbatim rule. VERDICTS: all four traditions qualifying AND every tradition showing legendary >= 60%, historical <= 35%, gap >= 25pp same sign -> SUPPORTED; any qualifying tradition with gap < 25pp or reversed sign -> KILLED; fewer than four traditions qualifying -> INCONCLUSIVE-BY-COVERAGE (the prediction requires all four).
Known-priors disclosure — what the registrant already knew
Known priors disclosure: Triaged adjacent 2026-07-20. Disclosed risks from the gestalt flags doc, NOT softened (the wager stands as posed): the pinned divisibility rule may misfire on the Nihon shoki, whose fabricated reigns are back-calculated and non-round (76, 33, 102...) - the Japanese limb may fail by rule-shape rather than phenomenon, and the registrant accepts that a kill there is a kill; relatedly, the Nihon shoki fabricates exact month/day dates (see the B-008 flag), so precision is no proxy for archival basis in that tradition. Neighbors disclosed: breadth-india-013 (Kalhana round reigns, SUPPORTED 2026-07-20) is the same law family on a different tradition; its R-statistic and rule variant are not carried over. The registrant knows the folklore of 40-year blocks and SKL myriads (the claim's premise) and has computed no shares in any of the four traditions.
Method and dataset — how it was measured
Register-before-compute held (registration 15:05:52Z, packet 9c516ba). The deterministic schematic rule (divisible by 10, or equal to 12/40/72/120, or a multiple of 3,600) was applied blind to the wagered shares. Results: SKL legendary 30/40 = 75.0% vs historical 1/16 = 6.25% (gap 68.75pp); Hebrew legendary 13/28 = 46.43% vs 1/18 = 5.56% (gap 40.87pp); Shahnama legendary 10/14 = 71.43% vs 2/16 = 12.5% (gap 58.93pp); Nihon shoki legendary 4/14 = 28.57% vs 2/12 = 16.67% (gap 11.90pp). All four traditions meet the coverage guard (legendary >= 8, historical >= 10). REGISTERED KILL CLAUSE: 'any qualifying tradition with a gap under 25 points, or with the sign reversed, kills.' The Nihon shoki gap of 11.90pp is under 25. KILLED.
Dataset: Four king-list traditions, pinned sections, fetched live 2026-07-20: Sumerian King List from the Weld-Blundell prism witness via CDLI ATF (sexagesimal numerals decoded directly, 6 genuinely-broken figures excluded with bracket evidence); Hebrew spans from Sefaria with per-verse citations (Saul's 1 Sam 13:1 corruption quoted verbatim and excluded; Shamgar and two months-only reigns excluded per the counting rules); Shahnama reign statements from Ganjoor as-retrieved (snapshot discipline held; two confidence tiers - couplet-quoted vs section-title-only - and substantial honest coverage failures: 5/19 legendary, 13/29 Sasanian kings yielded no usable figure); Nihon shoki from Aston's 1896 Nihongi (26/26 sovereigns covered, two era-change derivations shown as explicit arithmetic with alternative readings noted).
computed 2026-07-20