Ars Inquirendi

AI-generated conjecture · a wager, not a finding

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A Milanese printer chose our martyrs

Status: Anticipated · untested

Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).

This is a proposed connection between two domains, generated by a language model. It is not an article and not evidence: it sits below the evidence/publication boundary. A quantitative prediction and a named kill-dataset are attached (when registered) so the claim stays falsifiable rather than merely evocative.

Claim (verbatim)

Around 1477 the Milanese humanist Boninus Mombritius printed the Sanctuarium: two folio volumes of saints' lives set from Lombard manuscripts essentially as they lay - no rewriting, no apparatus, barely any editing at all. That accidental fidelity made it permanent infrastructure: the Bollandists prize Mombritius precisely because he transmits pre-critical states of the texts, and the 1910 Solesmes reprint remains a working tool. But infrastructure is also a filter. For a measurable share of ancient passiones, Mombritius is still the only edition ever printed - the Acta Sanctorum died before their feast day, or printed a different version - so the BHL entry cites Mombritius and nothing else. For five centuries, what one printer's shelf of Lombard legendaries happened to contain has defined which versions of the martyrs' deaths scholarship could conveniently read, cite, and compare; the rest stayed sealed in manuscript. The claim makes the filter countable from the repertorium itself: the sole-edition stratum is real, sizeable, and skewed - concentrated exactly where the Bollandist calendar machine never reached, in the dead weeks after 10 November. A fifteenth-century printing decision and a twentieth-century editorial shipwreck, interlocking to decide what the modern West can read of the Roman martyrs.

Prediction clause (verbatim)

Prediction: sampling all numbered items under the BHL index letters A and B, at least 4% will cite Mombritius's Sanctuarium (the 1477/78 original or the 1910 Solesmes reprint) as their sole edition (primary clause: the >=4% sole-edition rate, projecting to hundreds of texts corpus-wide; the verdict follows it); secondary clause: the sole-Mombritius items' feast days fall in the Acta Sanctorum's unedited November-11-to-December-31 window at more than twice the calendar base rate. The test voids if the two letters yield fewer than 400 numbered items.

Kill-dataset (verbatim)

Kill: the BHL volumes' per-item edition citations, letters A-B - a sole-edition tally with a feast-window cross-tab, runnable from the public-domain 1898-1901 volumes plus the 1986 Novum Supplementum.

Nobody has run this test. The kill-data is named above. If you can run it — or you know the paper that already settles it — claim the kill or submit the prior scholarship. Kills and prior scholarship are credited here, by name, as they come in.

Provenance

Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5

Fresh blind generation by claude-fable-5, 2026-07-17, hagiography wave anchored to the Bollandist instruments: every kill names BHL/BHLms, the Acta Sanctorum, a martyrology edition (Dubois's Usuard, De Rossi-Duchesne/Delehaye-Quentin Hieronymian, Quentin's Bede), or the comparative repertoria (BHG/BHO, Pinakes), with a countable operation - attestation-vs-text subtraction, items-per-saint inequality, codex co-occurrence, witness-count asymmetry along version chains, witness age-profiles, unica censuses, genre stratigraphy, cross-repertorium translation tallies, corruption and name-retention ledgers, edition-date gradients, sole-edition and sole-witness counts. Disjointness from the owned w08 medieval-religion ground checked by grep and by hand: w08 #17 owns the BHL-version-count-vs-translationes correlation - items 5 and 9 here reuse BHL/AASS as instruments but under different operations (original-vs-rewrite witness asymmetry; Frankish genre stratigraphy without any relic-mobility correlation); w08 #18 owns miracle-type distance mixes (untouched); w08 #35 owns breviary lesson-length compression - item 6 here measures witness age-profiles across the Legenda aurea bottleneck instead; w11 #24/#27/#28 own the Greek-side Synaxarion/Metaphrast operations - item 10 here stays on repertorium cross-references (translation direction), not witness sweeps; w23 #13 owns female patronage via DBBE - item 8 here is a Latin attestation-vs-text subtraction. No other packet names Usuard, the Hieronymian, Voragine/Fleith, Mombritius, BHG/BHO-as-instruments, Gregory's Gloria martyrum, the MLA, or the AASS calendar cliff (grep across all fresh packets, 2026-07-17). Candidates considered and dropped: suppressed-cult text fates (no countable pre-print corpus - Guinefort-type cults are known precisely through inquisitors, not dossiers); a BHL never-printed-backlog census (folded into items 14-15); a Latin parallel to the Metaphrastic sweep (too close to w11 #28's mechanism). Honesty flags: MODERATE on the Gloria martyrum 63 Patroclus chapter number and anecdote detail (story standard in the cult-and-text literature via Van Dam, but the census clause depends only on Krusch's index, not on this example); MODERATE on item 7's 5% unica rate and item 15's 4% sole-edition rate (deliberately risked far-from-zero thresholds; the operations stand regardless); MODERATE on the exact count of Bede's authentic entries ('hundred-odd', guarded by the void clause) and on the Saint-Pere-en-Vallee attribution of the burned Chartres legendary (color, not load-bearing). Coverage guard held throughout: BHLms indexes the Bollandist-catalogued collections (Belgium-France-Rome skew), so all witness-count clauses are read as counts-in-BHLms, never as absolute survival; items 4 and 16 carry 'Kill (partly not yet built)' because their decisive joins (dated-version tables; destroyed-shelfmark concordances) are real published scholarship not yet assembled into datasets.

Novelty / leakage triage

anticipated in the literature — this exact test has never been run

That Mombritius transmits pre-critical states and remains a working tool is the Bollandists' own printed judgement - the Solesmes reprint of 1910 exists because of it - and Philippart's survey registers how much of the corpus still lacks any modern edition. But the sole-edition stratum has never been tallied: the >=4% Mombritius-only rate over BHL letters A-B and the November-December feast-window skew are unrun counts over the BHL's printed per-item edition citations. The Mombritius-only tally is genuinely un-run.

  • B. Mombritius, Sanctuarium seu Vitae sanctorum (Milan, c. 1477; repr. by the monks of Solesmes, Paris, 1910)
  • G. Philippart, Les legendiers latins (Typologie des sources 24-25, Turnhout, 1977), on the editorial coverage of the corpus
  • Bibliotheca Hagiographica Latina (Brussels, 1898-1901) with H. Fros, Novum Supplementum (Subsidia Hagiographica 70, 1986), as the per-item edition-citation instrument

Predictions

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