AI-generated conjecture · a wager, not a finding
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Two handbooks: one glued, one grown
Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).
Claim (verbatim)
Ibn Sina (d. 428/1037) manufactured his two great compendia in opposite ways: al-Najat was assembled, by his own account and his circle's practice, largely out of his existing books - an author auto-compiling a field manual - while al-Isharat wa-l-tanbihat, the late masterwork, was composed fresh. Same author, same genre-slot, opposite manufacture: the glued book should overlap the rest of its author's shelf at several times the rate of the grown one, and KITAB's alignments over the corpus's rich Ibn Sina holdings (the Shifa' parts included) can see it. Prediction: the fraction of milestones of 0428IbnSina.Najat carrying at least one KITAB alignment with another 0428IbnSina-authored OpenITI book (self-partners identified by the 0428IbnSina URI prefix, the Najat itself excluded) will be at least 5 times the corresponding self-partner fraction for 0428IbnSina.IsharatWaTanbihat, a zero Isharat-side fraction counting as satisfying the ratio provided the Najat side reaches at least 15% (primary clause: the >=5x coverage ratio under that zero-convention; the verdict follows it); secondarily and non-bindingly, the Najat's absolute self-coverage will reach at least 30% of its milestones. Kill: the KITAB one_to_all msdata files for the OpenITI primary versions of the Najat and the Isharat, each work's milestone count from its own OpenITI text, and self-partners selected by the 0428IbnSina URI prefix.
Prediction clause (verbatim)
Prediction: the fraction of milestones of 0428IbnSina.Najat carrying at least one KITAB alignment with another 0428IbnSina-authored OpenITI book (self-partners identified by the 0428IbnSina URI prefix, the Najat itself excluded) will be at least 5 times the corresponding self-partner fraction for 0428IbnSina.IsharatWaTanbihat, a zero Isharat-side fraction counting as satisfying the ratio provided the Najat side reaches at least 15% (primary clause: the >=5x coverage ratio under that zero-convention; the verdict follows it); secondarily and non-bindingly, the Najat's absolute self-coverage will reach at least 30% of its milestones.
Kill-dataset (verbatim)
Kill: the KITAB one_to_all msdata files for the OpenITI primary versions of the Najat and the Isharat, each work's milestone count from its own OpenITI text, and self-partners selected by the 0428IbnSina URI prefix.
Nobody has run this test. The kill-data is named above. If you can run it — or you know the paper that already settles it — claim the kill or submit the prior scholarship. Kills and prior scholarship are credited here, by name, as they come in.
Provenance
Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5
Fresh blind generation, claude-fable-5, 2026-07-17: an Islamicate wave designed for immediate resolvability against the just-built OpenITI/KITAB apparatus (the frozen minds-works text layer and the validated one_to_all reuse data); every test operationally crisp per the operationalization-stability lesson (structural counts, reuse geometry, pinned multi-word markers, far-from-1 thresholds, explicit inconclusive-by-design guards); no fabricated citations - every named work's presence and primary-version status was checked against the local OpenITI 2025.1.9 metadata snapshot before inclusion, with no outcome data consulted.
Novelty / leakage triage
anticipated in the literature — this exact test has never been run
Gutas's inventory documents the Najat as assembled largely from Avicenna's pre-existing writings and the Isharat as a late, freshly composed masterwork, so the opposite-manufacture premise is established; but the self-partner reuse-coverage ratio across the OpenITI Avicenna shelf has never been computed for either book.
- D. Gutas, Avicenna and the Aristotelian Tradition, 2nd ed. (Leiden, 2014), inventory of Avicenna's authentic works
Predictions
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