Resolution: Supported
Caveats: (a) Margin: the MAIN Jaccard (0.5843 = 52/89, parasha + within-parasha ordinal alignment) sits close to the registered 0.6 line — margin ~0.016 — but the verdict is robust because all three alignment operationalizations agree below 0.6: strict section-index match 0.1371 (a naive floor, since siman numbering is recension-internal), parasha-level presence-only 0.5588 (a naive ceiling, ignoring within-parasha counts), and the ordinal-aligned MAIN 0.5843 between them. The alignment ambiguity spans floor to ceiling without ever crossing 0.6, so it cannot flip the verdict. (b) The non-verdict SECONDARY clause also held: per-section bearing-rate ratio 1.829 (std 10.5% of 769 simanim vs Buber 5.8% of 1042), outside the predicted 0.67-1.5 band — both registered clauses landed. (c) CALIBRATION CONTEXT: this SUPPORT breaks the recent three-kill run of direction-right/magnitude-overshot resolutions, and it refines that finding: the three overshoots were all bold RATIO-MULTIPLES (>=3:1, >2.0, <two-thirds), whereas the threshold that held here is a PROPORTION (Jaccard < 0.6). The signal is that the noetome over-pins multiplicative magnitudes specifically, not all quantitative thresholds. (d) Incidental structural finding, no bearing on the verdict: every formula hit in BOTH recensions falls in Genesis-Numbers — zero yelammedenu openings anywhere in Deuteronomy in either recension (141 instances >= 50, so the registered void rule was not triggered).
Registered against Sefaria's open Midrash Tanchuma (standard) and Midrash Tanchuma Buber (verified-real Sefaria indices). PREDICTION VERBATIM: Prediction: string-counting the "ילמדנו רבנו" (yelammedenu rabbenu) opening formula across Sefaria's Midrash Tanchuma (standard) and Midrash Tanchuma Buber recensions, the per-section occurrence rate will differ between the two recensions by at least 50% (a rate ratio outside the band 0.67-1.5), and the Jaccard overlap of the two recensions' sets of formula-bearing homilies (matched by parasha and pericope) will fall below 0.6 - primary clause: the sub-0.6 cross-recension overlap of yelammedenu homilies; the verdict follows it. The test voids for coverage if fewer than 50 formula instances are found across both recensions combined.
Resolution criteria — the registered fine print
Resolution criteria: DENOMINATOR (verbatim): the two recensions' SETS of formula-bearing homilies (homilies opening with 'ילמדנו רבנו'/yelammedenu rabbenu), matched by parasha and pericope. DATA: fetch Sefaria's Midrash Tanchuma and Midrash Tanchuma Buber; string-match the yelammedenu-rabbenu opening; per section record whether it bears the formula; align by (parasha, pericope). PRIMARY R = Jaccard overlap of the two formula-bearing-homily sets. SECONDARY (non-verdict): per-section occurrence-rate ratio between recensions (predicted outside 0.67-1.5). Report total formula instances found. CLAUSE PRECEDENCE: (1) INCONCLUSIVE_BY_DESIGN (the conjecture's void rule) if fewer than 50 formula instances across both recensions combined; (2) SUPPORTED if Jaccard < 0.6; (3) REFUTED if Jaccard >= 0.6. Compute firewalled from threshold and direction.
Known-priors disclosure — what the registrant already knew
Known priors disclosure: Triage (2026-07-17) graded ADJACENT: Tanhuma-Yelammedenu recension divergence is textbook (Buber 1885; Bregman 2003) but the formula-rate + parasha-aligned Jaccard over Sefaria is un-run. The <50-instance void is a live risk. Direction open. CALIBRATION NOTE: the <0.6 Jaccard is a bold pin — recent resolutions show conjectures over-pin magnitudes; the overlap may land above 0.6.
Method and dataset — how it was measured
Register-before-compute: prediction and resolution criteria registered verbatim in docs/generated/conjecture_prediction_batch5_20260718.json (2026-07-18) before any measurement. Firewalled compute by a separate agent (claude-sonnet) blind to threshold and direction, no conjecture files consulted: both recensions fetched from the Sefaria API (113 parasha-node text calls, all HTTP 200, sha256 manifests recorded); Hebrew text normalized (HTML tags, bidi controls, nikud/cantillation stripped, maqaf preserved); formula matched by regex — yelammedenu then 1+ of {whitespace, maqaf, hyphen} then rabbenu/rabbeinu (optional medial yod) — over joined paragraphs per siman, siman = homily-level section. Alignment: MAIN = 53 shared parshiot with within-parasha ordinal pairing of formula-bearing siman lists (intersection 52 / union 89), unshared nodes (std-only Vayeilech, 6 Buber-only Appendix nodes) union-only; sensitivities = strict literal (parasha, siman-index) match (17/124) and parasha-level presence-only (19/34). Counting logic run twice against two independently fetched corpus copies, 0 per-siman mismatches. computed_at 2026-07-19T09:31:00Z postdates registered_at (batch5 registration, 2026-07-18).
Dataset: Sefaria Midrash Tanchuma (std) vs Tanchuma Buber; 141 yelammedenu-rabbenu instances; formula-bearing-homily set Jaccard
computed 2026-07-19