AI-generated conjecture · below the evidence/publication boundary
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Galen armors the forgeable shelf
Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).
Claim (verbatim)
Galen says men sold books under his name in the Sandaliarium; De libris propriis is his catalogue raised as a wall. But his subtler defense was structural: lacing works with cross-references to his own titles builds a web no forger can counterfeit consistently. The interiority claim: Galen cross-referenced as armor rather than pedagogy, so the armor should be thickest where forgery paid — the drug compendia whose recipes had street value — and thinnest on the anatomy courses that only his own students wanted. Prediction: self-reference formulas naming his own works occur at least twice as often per 10,000 words in the pharmacological compilations (De compositione medicamentorum secundum locos, De compositione medicamentorum per genera, De simplicium medicamentorum temperamentis ac facultatibus) as in the anatomical-physiological treatises (De anatomicis administrationibus, De usu partium); primary clause: the pooled twofold rate difference between the two groups. Kill: the First1KGreek (Open Greek and Latin) TEI texts of the named Galenic works; the exact computation is a count of occurrences of his own work-titles preceded within ten words by a reference phrase (ἐν τῷ, ἐν τοῖς, ὡς ἐν, καθάπερ ἐν), per 10,000 words in each group.
Prediction clause (verbatim)
Prediction: self-reference formulas naming his own works occur at least twice as often per 10,000 words in the pharmacological compilations (De compositione medicamentorum secundum locos, De compositione medicamentorum per genera, De simplicium medicamentorum temperamentis ac facultatibus) as in the anatomical-physiological treatises (De anatomicis administrationibus, De usu partium); primary clause: the pooled twofold rate difference between the two groups.
Kill-dataset (verbatim)
Kill: the First1KGreek (Open Greek and Latin) TEI texts of the named Galenic works; the exact computation is a count of occurrences of his own work-titles preceded within ten words by a reference phrase (ἐν τῷ, ἐν τοῖς, ὡς ἐν, καθάπερ ἐν), per 10,000 words in each group.
Nobody has run this test. The kill-data is named above. If you can run it — or you know the paper that already settles it — claim the kill or submit the prior scholarship. Kills and prior scholarship are credited here, by name, as they come in.
Provenance
Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5
Fresh blind generation instance (prompt file and existing-titles list only; no repository, web, or prior-art access), 2026-07-16, campaign Minds & Works wave M01.
Novelty / leakage triage
anticipated in the literature — this exact test has never been run
Galen's self-cataloguing (De libris propriis) and anxiety about forgery are well documented, but the specific claim that self-reference density is higher in the (forgery-valuable) pharmacological works than the anatomical was not located.
- V. Nutton, ed., Galen: On My Own Opinions / On Prognosis (CMG); Nutton, Ancient Medicine (2004)
Predictions
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