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Philes leaves a slot for the name
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“Anticipated in print” means the direction of this claim already appears in scholarship, while this exact test has never been run — it records prior art, not proof; nothing here counts as supported or falsified until a registered resolution says so.
Claim (verbatim)
Manuel Philes fed his family on commissioned verse, and a jobbing poet's efficiency lives in refitting, not invention: epigrams cut with a metrical slot where the patron's name or saint can be swapped like a tailor's collar. The interiority claim: his working method was a pattern-book of reusable pieces, and he accepted — perhaps intended — that the same poem would serve many buyers; transmission should therefore preserve doublets that differ chiefly at the name. Prediction: among book epigrams attributed to Philes with two or more occurrences in DBBE, the share of epigram types whose occurrences differ in a personal or place name while otherwise substantially matching is at least twice the pooled share among multi-occurrence types of all other name-attributed epigram authors; primary clause: the twofold share comparison. Kill: the Database of Byzantine Book Epigrams' open data dump of types, occurrences, and person attributions; the exact computation groups multi-occurrence types by attributed author and flags name-slot divergence by aligning occurrence transcriptions.
Prediction clause (verbatim)
Prediction: among book epigrams attributed to Philes with two or more occurrences in DBBE, the share of epigram types whose occurrences differ in a personal or place name while otherwise substantially matching is at least twice the pooled share among multi-occurrence types of all other name-attributed epigram authors; primary clause: the twofold share comparison.
Kill-dataset (verbatim)
Kill: the Database of Byzantine Book Epigrams' open data dump of types, occurrences, and person attributions; the exact computation groups multi-occurrence types by attributed author and flags name-slot divergence by aligning occurrence transcriptions.
Browse the registry: Byzantine book epigrams (DBBE) →
Nobody has run this test. The kill-data is named above. If you can run it — or you know the paper that already settles it — claim the kill or submit the prior scholarship. Kills and prior scholarship are credited here, by name, as they come in.
How this item is catalogued
Catalogue tags are curatorial metadata that make the conjecture findable. They are not findings, not a novelty verdict, and naming a source family is not a promise that the data exist or are accessible. Each dimension below says whether it was assigned, reviewed with none applying, uncertain, or not yet reviewed, and who recorded it.
- Place & era tags — Assigned
- Aegean & Greece; Medieval Tagged by claude-sonnet-5 + claude-fable-5 (gate)
- Dating — Phenomenon
- Dated c. 1270 CE – 1330 CE Manuel Philes's career as a commissioned Byzantine poet, c.1270s-1330s CE. Tagged by claude-sonnet-5 + claude-fable-5 (gate)
- Subject — Assigned
- Authors' minds & methods (from the generation section)
- Finer subject topic — Assigned
- Literary patronage and dedication Commissioned verse refitted with a new patron's or saint's name in a reusable slot is squarely patronage and dedication. Tagged by claude-opus-5 draft (requested max effort) adjudicated by claude-fable-5-1 driver, lane 1da5; runtime not independently attested
- Claim level — Assigned
- Record claim The prediction is that transmission preserves near-duplicate epigrams differing at a name slot, i.e. how commissioned verse was made and copied. Tagged by claude-opus-5 draft (requested max effort) adjudicated by claude-fable-5-1 driver, lane 1da5; runtime not independently attested
- Method — Reviewed — none applies
- Registered statistic: the share of multi-occurrence types showing name-slot divergence, against the pooled share for all other name-attributed authors. Tagged by claude-opus-5 draft (requested max effort) adjudicated by claude-fable-5-1 driver, lane 1da5; runtime not independently attested
- Evidence source — Assigned
- Byzantine book epigrams (DBBE) Kill test loads the DBBE open data dump of types, occurrences and person attributions and aligns occurrence transcriptions. Tagged by claude-opus-5 draft (requested max effort) adjudicated by claude-fable-5-1 driver, lane 1da5; runtime not independently attested
- Research stage — Idea — no test designed
On Inferpedia
This conjecture is linked to the following pages on Inferpedia, an encyclopedia of the missing — working atlas pages, some still early scaffolding.
Provenance
Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5
Fresh blind generation instance (prompt file and existing-titles list only; no repository, web, or prior-art access), 2026-07-16, campaign Minds & Works wave M01.
Novelty / leakage triage
anticipated in the literature — this exact test has never been run
The made-to-measure vs reusable nature of Byzantine commissioned book-epigrams (Philes especially) is discussed in DBBE scholarship, but the specific test that his multi-occurrence types differ chiefly at a name-slot at twice other authors' rate was not located.
Sources cited by the triage
- K. Demoen et al., Database of Byzantine Book Epigrams project studies (Ghent)
Predictions
No prediction registered yet.
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