AI-generated conjecture · a wager, not a finding
← All conjectures · Works' qualities & composition
The diary books stay home
Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).
Claim (verbatim)
The Man'yoshu's last four books (17–20) are Otomo no Yakamochi's dated poetic journal — chronological, occasional, thick with headnotes and provincial business — grafted onto a sixteen-book anthology organized by category, land, and mode. Anthology architecture is an interface: category books serve later excerptors hunting exemplary poems by topic; a diary offers no lookup path. The graft should be invisible in the text and glaring in the afterlife: centuries of anthologists and treatise-writers drawing on the collection should systematically bypass the diary books. Prediction: among Man'yoshu poems taken up in Heian and later waka anthologies and poetic treatises, poems from books 17–20 — roughly a quarter of the collection — will supply less than half their corpus share, that is, under 12.5% of retakes, while the category-organized books 1–2 and 10–12 will be over-represented (primary clause: the books 17–20 retake share below 12.5%; the verdict follows it). Kill: the poem-level retake concordances built on the Shinpen Kokka Taikan and the standard Man'yoshu concordances (Man'yoshu sakuin), all published reference works.
Prediction clause (verbatim)
Prediction: among Man'yoshu poems taken up in Heian and later waka anthologies and poetic treatises, poems from books 17–20 — roughly a quarter of the collection — will supply less than half their corpus share, that is, under 12.5% of retakes, while the category-organized books 1–2 and 10–12 will be over-represented (primary clause: the books 17–20 retake share below 12.5%; the verdict follows it).
Kill-dataset (verbatim)
Kill: the poem-level retake concordances built on the Shinpen Kokka Taikan and the standard Man'yoshu concordances (Man'yoshu sakuin), all published reference works.
Nobody has run this test. The kill-data is named above. If you can run it — or you know the paper that already settles it — claim the kill or submit the prior scholarship. Kills and prior scholarship are credited here, by name, as they come in.
Provenance
Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5
Fresh blind generation instance of claude-fable-5, 2026-07-16, wave M02 (the works) of the Minds & Works campaign, produced from model knowledge alone under the two-file blindness protocol.
Novelty / leakage triage
anticipated in the literature — this exact test has never been run
The distinct diary-journal character of Man'yoshu books 17-20 (Yakamochi) against the category-organized anthology is well known, but the specific reception claim (books 17-20 supply <12.5% of later-anthology retakes, under half their corpus share) was not located as a concordance-based test.
- Standard Man'yoshu concordances (Man'yoshu sakuin); Shinpen Kokka Taikan
Predictions
No prediction registered yet.
Weigh in
No community feedback yet.
New here? Create an account first
Create an account or sign in and your feedback is tied to you — you can track it, get replies, and claim this conjecture so others know you’re working on it. Prefer not to? Just leave your take below as a guest — only the name you type is shown.
Add your take
Posted immediately (spam is removed). Community feedback is never an adjudicated verdict and never changes this conjecture's triage label or status above.