AI-generated conjecture · a wager, not a finding
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Sirventes cut from vanished cloth
Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).
Claim (verbatim)
The sirventes was, by the tradition's own account, a parasite form: the Catalan Doctrina de compondre dictats instructs that it should take its tune from an existing song, and sirventes routinely borrowed a canso's full metrical scheme and rhyme sounds so that polemic could ride a melody the audience already knew. That habit turns Frank's Repertoire metrique into a loss-detector. A sirventes whose exact scheme survives in no canso is, with high probability, wearing the clothes of a model we no longer have; count the model-less sirventes and you have bounded from below a body of vanished love-song. The mechanism that split the pairs is differential channel survival: the canso was anthologized for its art and travelled the international canon-books, while the sirventes was kept for its history - its names, feuds and crusades - often in different, later, more local collections. Pairs that entered the written record through different doors could easily lose one member, and the lost member should preferentially be the model, since by the time of compilation the polemic's referential value outlived the love song's fashion. The formal shadow the borrowed scheme casts is, for each missing model, the only surviving trace that the canso ever existed.
Prediction clause (verbatim)
Prediction: joining BEdT genre labels to Frank's metrical formulas, and excluding by rule the twenty most frequent schemes in the whole repertory (commodity forms on which model-matching is meaningless), at least one-third of sirventes will share their exact scheme - stanza structure plus rhyme-sound sequence - with no surviving canso (primary clause: the one-third model-less rate; the verdict follows it). Schemes shared only with other sirventes or with nothing count as model-less; a documented Old French model noted in Frank's own concordances counts as modeled. The test voids if fewer than 150 sirventes carry usable Frank formulas.
Kill-dataset (verbatim)
Kill: Frank's Repertoire metrique scheme identities crossed with BEdT genre labels - the census of sirventes whose exact scheme appears in no surviving canso.
Nobody has run this test. The kill-data is named above. If you can run it — or you know the paper that already settles it — claim the kill or submit the prior scholarship. Kills and prior scholarship are credited here, by name, as they come in.
Provenance
Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5
Fresh blind generation by claude-fable-5, 2026-07-17, troubadour/Old Occitan wave instrument-anchored on the BEdT (Bibliografia Elettronica dei Trovatori, bedt.it - per-song PC identities, per-chansonnier attestations, per-witness attributions, genres, dates, music fields), with the printed censuses as controls: Pillet-Carstens 1933, Frank's Repertoire metrique 1953-57, the chansonnier sigla corpus (Brunel 1935; Zufferey 1987), Boutiere-Schutz for vidas/razos, Marshall 1969/1972 for the grammars, van der Werf 1984 for melodies. Every Kill names one instrument and one countable/positional/attestation-geometric operation; thresholds far from 1; disambiguation rules and coverage guards pinned inside each prediction; one item (no. 8, the mention-census diff) carries an honest 'Kill (not yet built)'. DISJOINTNESS from owned European lyric ground, checked by grep across all packets: w01 no.30 'Biography replaces the stage' owns vida/razo geography-of-production (this wave never tests vida presence by region); w07 no.2 'The life replaces the tune' owns the vida-melody substitution and the A/B/I/K-vs-G/R/W/X contrast (this wave's melody items run different arithmetic - per-poet text-mass concentration in no.1 and R's internal empty-stave audit in no.16, both flagged adjacent); w07 no.38 'Anthologies are funerals' owns the composition-to-witness time-lag operation, so that steer was DROPPED here and replaced by the home-vs-export archiving order (no.10, a different geometry, flagged adjacent); w07 no.49 'Hymns steal from love songs' owns melody-concordance contrafacture direction (no.6 here is metrical, within-Occitan, a Frank-scheme ghost-model census, flagged adjacent); w07 no.41 owns Dante-vs-Franco-Italian epic (no.12 here is the De vulgari eloquentia citation channel, a different claim). Honesty flags: melody totals (roughly 250) and the trobairitz roster vary by edition and are pinned to named instruments inside each prediction; gallery-roster identifications follow the critical editions; no in-house BEdT extract exists yet, so 'immediately resolvable' means the instrument is live and public while the harvest itself is a small build.
Novelty / leakage triage
anticipated in the literature — this exact test has never been run
The sirventes as formal parasite is textbook - the Doctrina de compondre dictats prescribes the borrowed tune (edited in Marshall's Razos de trobar volume), and the contrafacta identifiable on Frank's schemes are catalogued in Marshall's classic Romania study - but the published work counts the surviving matches, not the residue: the share of sirventes whose exact scheme appears in no extant canso, under a commodity-scheme exclusion, has never been computed, so the one-third model-less rate is un-run.
- J.H. Marshall, 'Pour l'etude des contrafacta dans la poesie des troubadours', Romania 101 (1980)
- J.H. Marshall (ed.), The Razos de trobar of Raimon Vidal and Associated Texts (London, 1972)
- I. Frank, Repertoire metrique de la poesie des troubadours, 2 vols. (Paris, 1953-57)
Predictions
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