AI-generated conjecture · a wager, not a finding
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Named as masters, kept as nobody
Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).
Claim (verbatim)
Eble II, viscount of Ventadorn, called Cantator, praised by the chronicler Geoffrey of Vigeois for his songs and invoked in the lyric corpus itself as the head of a school of composition - the school of lord Eble - has no surviving song. He is the most famous member of a class nobody has counted: poets attested as poets purely by mention, named in vidas and razos as rivals, teachers and correspondents, addressed in tornadas, answered in sirventes, with zero transmitted corpus. The roster of roughly 460 in Pillet-Carstens is a roster of transmission; the mention-layer of the same corpus encodes a second roster, of production. This conjecture claims the diff between the two is substantial: harvest every personal name that the tradition's own texts and paratexts credit with composing, subtract everyone who owns a PC/BEdT corpus, and a sizable roster of composer-names remains - the tradition's own memory of colleagues the written channel dropped entire. The mechanism is the cost asymmetry of the two kinds of record: a mention travels inside someone else's stanza at no archival cost, while a corpus needed a compiler's deliberate commitment of parchment; whenever fame outran anthologization, the name survived and the work did not. The zero-corpus mention roster is the countable lower bound on the troubadours who vanished whole.
Prediction clause (verbatim)
Prediction: a systematic mention-census - names credited with composition in the vida-razo corpus (Boutiere-Schutz), in tornadas and envois, and in the two satirical gallery poems, diffed against the BEdT attribution roster - will surface at least 40 composer-names with zero attributed pieces, enlarging the named-poet roster by at least 8 percent (primary clause: the 40 zero-corpus composer-names; the verdict follows it). A name counts only where the source predicates song-making of it, under a pinned harvest rule; names editorially judged unidentifiable persons still count, fictional interlocutors (God, personifications, birds) do not. The test voids unless the harvest covers at least the full Boutiere-Schutz corpus plus both galleries.
Kill-dataset (verbatim)
Kill (not yet built): a mention-census of composer-names across Boutiere-Schutz and the gallery poems, diffed against the BEdT/PC attribution roster - the harvest table does not exist yet and must be built before this can resolve.
Nobody has run this test. The kill-data is named above. If you can run it — or you know the paper that already settles it — claim the kill or submit the prior scholarship. Kills and prior scholarship are credited here, by name, as they come in.
Provenance
Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5
Fresh blind generation by claude-fable-5, 2026-07-17, troubadour/Old Occitan wave instrument-anchored on the BEdT (Bibliografia Elettronica dei Trovatori, bedt.it - per-song PC identities, per-chansonnier attestations, per-witness attributions, genres, dates, music fields), with the printed censuses as controls: Pillet-Carstens 1933, Frank's Repertoire metrique 1953-57, the chansonnier sigla corpus (Brunel 1935; Zufferey 1987), Boutiere-Schutz for vidas/razos, Marshall 1969/1972 for the grammars, van der Werf 1984 for melodies. Every Kill names one instrument and one countable/positional/attestation-geometric operation; thresholds far from 1; disambiguation rules and coverage guards pinned inside each prediction; one item (no. 8, the mention-census diff) carries an honest 'Kill (not yet built)'. DISJOINTNESS from owned European lyric ground, checked by grep across all packets: w01 no.30 'Biography replaces the stage' owns vida/razo geography-of-production (this wave never tests vida presence by region); w07 no.2 'The life replaces the tune' owns the vida-melody substitution and the A/B/I/K-vs-G/R/W/X contrast (this wave's melody items run different arithmetic - per-poet text-mass concentration in no.1 and R's internal empty-stave audit in no.16, both flagged adjacent); w07 no.38 'Anthologies are funerals' owns the composition-to-witness time-lag operation, so that steer was DROPPED here and replaced by the home-vs-export archiving order (no.10, a different geometry, flagged adjacent); w07 no.49 'Hymns steal from love songs' owns melody-concordance contrafacture direction (no.6 here is metrical, within-Occitan, a Frank-scheme ghost-model census, flagged adjacent); w07 no.41 owns Dante-vs-Franco-Italian epic (no.12 here is the De vulgari eloquentia citation channel, a different claim). Honesty flags: melody totals (roughly 250) and the trobairitz roster vary by edition and are pinned to named instruments inside each prediction; gallery-roster identifications follow the critical editions; no in-house BEdT extract exists yet, so 'immediately resolvable' means the instrument is live and public while the harvest itself is a small build.
Novelty / leakage triage
anticipated in the literature — this exact test has never been run
Eble II Cantator as the famous zero-corpus troubadour - Geoffrey of Vigeois's praise, the escola n'Eblo invoked in the lyric - is standard ground, and the vidas' habit of crediting song-making to otherwise-unattested figures is visible throughout Boutiere-Schutz; but no systematic mention-census diffed against the PC/BEdT roster exists (the conjecture's own kill concedes the harvest table must be built), so the 40-name floor and the 8 percent roster enlargement are un-run.
- J. Boutiere & A.H. Schutz, Biographies des troubadours: textes provencaux des XIIIe et XIVe siecles, rev. ed. (Paris, 1964)
- M. de Riquer, Los trovadores: historia literaria y textos, 3 vols. (Barcelona, 1975)
Predictions
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