Ars Inquirendi

AI-generated conjecture · a wager, not a finding

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The largest corpora hang by single threads

Status: Anticipated · untested

Status is derived only from the shepherd-authored triage/prediction data above -- community submissions and claims are a separate overlay and can never change it (see the participation panel below).

This is a proposed connection between two domains, generated by a language model. It is not an article and not evidence: it sits below the evidence/publication boundary. A quantitative prediction and a named kill-dataset are attached (when registered) so the claim stays falsifiable rather than merely evocative.

Claim (verbatim)

Survival size and survival depth come apart spectacularly at the top of the troubadour roster. The largest surviving corpora belong to late poets who bypassed the anthology market: Cerveri de Girona's hundred-plus pieces ride almost entirely on one Catalan collection (Sg, the Cansoner Gil), Guiraut Riquier's 89 on his own book as copied into R with its dated rubrics, Bertran Carbonel's dozens of coblas on scarcely more - while the mid-size canonical corpora of the classic age, a Bernart de Ventadorn or a Folquet or a Gaucelm Faidit, are spread across dozens of witnesses each. The mechanism: the classic canon was replicated for a century by an international market, but the late giants were archived once, by self-collection or a single compiler's initiative, after that market had died - big because self-collected, fragile because self-collected. So the best-attested poets by count are the worst-attested by redundancy, and one lost binding would have deleted the biggest single bodies of troubadour verse outright. This inverts the intuition that large survival means robust survival, and it recalibrates the loss estimate: if corpora of a hundred pieces could reach us only by single-thread luck, the expected number of comparable corpora that had no such luck - and so are invisible - is not small.

Prediction clause (verbatim)

Prediction: in BEdT, among the three largest attributed corpora by piece count, at least two will have over two-thirds of their pieces on a single witness, while no poet in the fifth-through-fifteenth ranks by corpus size shows a single-witness rate above one-third (primary clause: the two-of-the-top-three over-two-thirds unica rates; the verdict follows it). Coblas transmitted in series count as pieces per BEdT's own itemization; razo-embedded copies do not count as witnesses. The test voids if per-song witness lists are incomplete for any of the top three corpora.

Kill-dataset (verbatim)

Kill: BEdT per-poet witness matrices - single-witness rates down the corpus-size ranking.

Nobody has run this test. The kill-data is named above. If you can run it — or you know the paper that already settles it — claim the kill or submit the prior scholarship. Kills and prior scholarship are credited here, by name, as they come in.

Provenance

Run: Fresh agent generation · model: claude-fable-5

Fresh blind generation by claude-fable-5, 2026-07-17, troubadour/Old Occitan wave instrument-anchored on the BEdT (Bibliografia Elettronica dei Trovatori, bedt.it - per-song PC identities, per-chansonnier attestations, per-witness attributions, genres, dates, music fields), with the printed censuses as controls: Pillet-Carstens 1933, Frank's Repertoire metrique 1953-57, the chansonnier sigla corpus (Brunel 1935; Zufferey 1987), Boutiere-Schutz for vidas/razos, Marshall 1969/1972 for the grammars, van der Werf 1984 for melodies. Every Kill names one instrument and one countable/positional/attestation-geometric operation; thresholds far from 1; disambiguation rules and coverage guards pinned inside each prediction; one item (no. 8, the mention-census diff) carries an honest 'Kill (not yet built)'. DISJOINTNESS from owned European lyric ground, checked by grep across all packets: w01 no.30 'Biography replaces the stage' owns vida/razo geography-of-production (this wave never tests vida presence by region); w07 no.2 'The life replaces the tune' owns the vida-melody substitution and the A/B/I/K-vs-G/R/W/X contrast (this wave's melody items run different arithmetic - per-poet text-mass concentration in no.1 and R's internal empty-stave audit in no.16, both flagged adjacent); w07 no.38 'Anthologies are funerals' owns the composition-to-witness time-lag operation, so that steer was DROPPED here and replaced by the home-vs-export archiving order (no.10, a different geometry, flagged adjacent); w07 no.49 'Hymns steal from love songs' owns melody-concordance contrafacture direction (no.6 here is metrical, within-Occitan, a Frank-scheme ghost-model census, flagged adjacent); w07 no.41 owns Dante-vs-Franco-Italian epic (no.12 here is the De vulgari eloquentia citation channel, a different claim). Honesty flags: melody totals (roughly 250) and the trobairitz roster vary by edition and are pinned to named instruments inside each prediction; gallery-roster identifications follow the critical editions; no in-house BEdT extract exists yet, so 'immediately resolvable' means the instrument is live and public while the harvest itself is a small build.

Novelty / leakage triage

anticipated in the literature — this exact test has never been run

The single-collection dependence of the late giants is established case by case - Cerveri's corpus rides on the Cansoner Gil, and Guiraut Riquier's self-collected libre with its dated rubrics is a classic study - but the comparative single-witness profile down the corpus-size ranking has never been computed. Note against the claim's framing that Riquier's libre is transmitted in C as well as R, so his pieces are typically double-witness and the two-of-top-three clause must carry on Cerveri plus the third-ranked corpus.

  • M. de Riquer (ed.), Obras completas del trovador Cerveri de Girona (Barcelona, 1947)
  • V. Bertolucci Pizzorusso, 'Il canzoniere di un trovatore: il libro di Guiraut Riquier', Medioevo romanzo 5 (1978)

Predictions

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