Resolution: Inconclusive
Caveats: CORPUS VINTAGE/SCOPE (the whole ruling): the only published Route A export is Ganjoor's pre-rewrite 2014-10-03 snapshot with 67 of the live site's 233 poets, so C covers ~29% of the poets the registrant was looking at when the wager was placed; N=17 is a lower bound on the registered quantity, not a measurement of it. WHY ENUMERABLE ROUTE A DOES NOT FORCE CLAUSE (3): clause (3) presupposes N measures the registered quantity; the registration's own verification evidence (live site, live API) fixes the referent corpus as current Ganjoor, and Route A's silent decade of vintage-drift was discoverable only at compute time -- killing on the subset would let an instrument's undisclosed staleness convert a lower bound into a refutation, the exact false-kill mode lesson 7 guards against (same void family as romanlaw-011 and greekastro-009/013). THE CONCENTRATION ARGUMENT, WEIGHED AND REJECTED AS A KILL LICENSE: yes, all 17 matched classes partner with major classical rubaiyat poets present in the snapshot (Attar 8, Abu Sa'id 3, Rumi 2, Sanai/Baba Afzal/Khaqani/Shah Nematollah 1 each), but that observation is circular about absent poets, and the shepherd's roster check shows the 166 absent poets are NOT overwhelmingly minor/modern: live Ganjoor carries rubaiyat sections for snapshot-absent classical poets squarely in the wandering-quatrain stratum -- e.g. Kamal al-Din Esmail, Awhad al-Din Kermani (a corpus on the order of 1,700 quatrains), Zahir Faryabi, Kamal Khojandi, Ibn Yamin, Mojir Beylaqani -- so the +13 NEW distinct Khayyam classes needed to reach 30 (out of 238 currently unmatched classes) are plausibly reachable and a kill here is not safe. HONEST WEIGHT ON THE OTHER SIDE (not suppressed): Route A was literally enumerable and sha256-clean; Khayyam is over-represented in it (320 vs the assumed 178), which inflated, not deflated, matching chances; and on the delivered instrument the wager fell 43% short (17 vs 30) under a rule the registrant self-declared conservative -- direction confirmed (17 genuine wandering classes, spot-verified variants), magnitude overshot, the campaign's recurring calibration signature. This void does NOT vindicate the conjecture: V2-ELIGIBLE with a re-pinned instrument (current-corpus enumeration -- e.g. the live gdb/API with a feasible enumeration budget, or a fresh full-corpus export if Ganjoor publishes one); if v2 on the full 233-poet corpus still lands under 30, that is a clean kill. Reported-non-verdict per registration: partner-poet table as above; |Q|=320; within-Q duplication 0.403 (Ganjoor's Khayyam section itself heavily self-duplicating across its Robaiyat and Hedayat sub-trees).
Registered against Ganjoor (poet خیام نیشابوری confirmed present at registration, id=3, fullUrl /khayyam; instrument permission as verified for persianate-ganjoor-005: robots on both hosts fully permissive, API live). PREDICTION VERBATIM: "Prediction: at least 30 distinct quatrains on Ganjoor's Khayyam (خیام) page will also appear, as substantially the same quatrain (matching on rhyme-words and at least three of four misra'), under at least one other Ganjoor poet's corpus (primary clause: the count of cross-attributed Khayyam quatrains at least 30; the verdict follows it). Matching is on near-identical text, not theme; trivial variants count as the same quatrain; and the test reports the partner poets so the direction of drift can be inspected. The threshold is an absolute count set well clear of chance, robust to the exact size of Ganjoor's Khayyam collection." FULL OPERATIONALIZATION PINNED AT REGISTRATION (lesson 3 - every matching choice frozen here): CORPORA: Q = all poems of poet id 3 whose verse structure is exactly 4 misra; C = all poems with exactly 4 misra of every other poet (id != 3). ROUTE: preferred route A = Ganjoor's official bulk database exports (the project's published per-poet SQLite/gdb files), one download per poet; fallback route B = the public API, sequential with >=1s self-imposed spacing; the compute documents which route and every URL/endpoint. NORMALIZATION (pinned, applied to every misra): Unicode NFC; character maps ي>ی, ك>ک, ة>ه, ۀ>ه, أ>ا, إ>ا, ٱ>ا, ؤ>و, ئ>ی; strip combining marks U+064B-U+0655 and U+0670; strip tatweel U+0640; delete ZWNJ U+200C; strip Arabic and Latin punctuation; collapse whitespace. RHYME-WORD = the final whitespace token of the normalized misra. SIMILARITY = Python difflib.SequenceMatcher(None, a, b).ratio() on the two normalized misra strings (function pinned exactly). MATCH RULE (pinned): quatrains q and c MATCH iff, over the four positionally aligned misra (no permutation - conservative, disclosed), at least 3 of 4 positions have similarity >= 0.75 AND at least 3 of 4 positions have identical rhyme-words. This double condition is the registered realization of 'matching on rhyme-words and at least three of four misra'' with 'trivial variants count as the same quatrain'. DISTINCTNESS (pinned): Khayyam-internal equivalence classes are formed by union-find over the same MATCH rule; the counted unit is the equivalence class. PRIMARY QUANTITY N = number of distinct Khayyam quatrain classes with at least one MATCH to a quatrain of a different poet.
Resolution criteria — the registered fine print
Resolution criteria: COMPUTE RECIPE (blind agent): (1) obtain the full Ganjoor corpus by route A or B (documented); (2) extract Q and C by the exactly-4-misra structure rule; (3) normalize, compute MATCHes under the pinned rule (an efficient blocking scheme - e.g. prefiltering on shared rhyme-words - is permitted ONLY if provably equivalent to exhaustive comparison under the pinned rule, and must be stated); (4) form Khayyam-internal classes, count N, and tabulate partner poets per matched class. CLAUSE PRECEDENCE: (1) INCONCLUSIVE_BY_ACCESS only on instrument failure (the Khayyam section or the other-poet corpus cannot be enumerated by either route) - the prediction pins no measured-value void, so none is added; (2) SUPPORTED if N >= 30; (3) REFUTED if N < 30. REPORTED, NON-VERDICT: the partner-poet table (the prediction's own reporting requirement, 'so the direction of drift can be inspected'), the size of Q, and the within-Q duplication rate. Compute firewalled from the threshold and from this disclosure.
Known-priors disclosure — what the registrant already knew
Known priors disclosure: Triage 2026-07-17 graded ADJACENT with the strongest possible phenomenon-level prior disclosed: Zhukovsky 1897 identified 82 'wandering quatrains' among Khayyam-attributed rubaiyat in the manuscript tradition, enlarged by Christensen 1905/1927 and surveyed by Aminrazavi 2005 - so a cross-attribution count far above 30 exists in print FOR THE MANUSCRIPT TRADITION. What is un-run (triage's grounds for adjacency) is the Ganjoor-internal count: Ganjoor's Khayyam section descends from the curated Forughi-Ghani 178, assembled precisely to EXCLUDE suspect attributions, so whether >= 30 of ITS quatrains recur under other GANJOOR corpora (Attar's Mokhtarnameh, the Abu-Sa'id-attributed quatrains, Baba Afzal, the Divan-e Shams rubaiyat, etc., as hosted) is a genuine question about the digital corpus. Registrant expectation genuinely open: the curation cuts one way, the sheer size of Ganjoor's quatrain holdings the other. CALIBRATION NOTE: absolute-count pin, self-described as 'set well clear of chance' - not the overpinned multiplicative class. The pinned 0.75/3-of-4 positional rule is conservative (no hemistich permutation), which biases against SUPPORT if anything - disclosed ex ante. PROBE DISCLOSURE: only the poet roster was fetched at registration; no quatrain text was seen.
Method and dataset — how it was measured
Firewalled blind compute (claude-sonnet-5, blind to the N>=30 threshold and to direction) implemented the pinned rule exactly: NFC + pinned char-map normalization, final-token rhyme words, rhyme-blocked candidate generation proven lossless vs all-pairs, MATCH iff >=3/4 positionally-aligned misra with SequenceMatcher ratio >= 0.75 AND >=3/4 identical rhyme words (no permutation), union-find distinctness over Q, N = distinct Khayyam classes with >=1 external match. The Opus orchestrator independently re-implemented the entire pinned rule from scratch and reproduced N=17 EXACTLY; spot-checks confirmed the matches are genuine wandering-quatrain textual variants (e.g. Khayyam robai 2 vs Attar Mokhtarnameh 44). Verdict authored by claude-fable-5 per the registered clause precedence: clause (1) INCONCLUSIVE_BY_ACCESS fires because the REGISTERED other-poet corpus -- every other poet of the Ganjoor the registrant demonstrably pinned (233 poets, live-verified at registration) -- cannot be enumerated by either route: Route A's only existing export delivers a 2014 67-poet predecessor corpus, and Route B at the pinned >=1s spacing cannot exhaustively enumerate 233 poets' corpora in bounded time. N=17 on the deliverable subset is a LOWER BOUND on the registered quantity and clauses (2)/(3) are therefore not reached. Per the registration's own void rule, no measured-value void is added. VERDICT: INCONCLUSIVE.
Dataset: Route A as pinned: Ganjoor's official published bulk SQLite export -- the ONLY such export in existence, SourceForge s3db/ganjoor-s3db-930711.zip (Persian date 930711 = 2014-10-03 CE), sha256 cb782243a10824ca9247dc6529d32326df77f840a3be510c2cdb7fade5071866 verified independently by compute agent and shepherd. It is a PRE-REWRITE snapshot covering 67 poets; the live ganjoor.ir that the registrant verified at registration (poet id=3 at /khayyam, API live) carries 233 poets, so the delivered instrument is a ~29%-of-poets, decade-stale subset of the registered corpus. Q = poet id 3 (خیام, verified) exactly-4-misra poems: 320 (vs the assumed curated 178 -- Khayyam is OVER-represented, including Hedayat's Taraneh-ha sub-tree). C = all other poets' exactly-4-misra poems: 11,873. Shepherd re-verified poet count, |Q|, |C| directly against the DB and enumerated the full 67-poet roster for the corpus-scope ruling.
computed 2026-07-20