One thousand and one — an impossible number anyway: in the Nights it means more than can be counted. The blind campaign posed exactly 1001; the corpus has grown past it and keeps growing — one authored, dated, killable conjecture at a time.
1,003 posed — and counting · measured against the literature (1001 authoritative verdicts): 95 already answered · 844 anticipated — never tested · 50 no prior located · 12 resolved (6 supported / 3 killed)
Falsifiable conjectures about the pre-print world. The founding thousand and one were generated blind by Fable, a frontier AI, then judged, one dated literature-search each: 95 already answered by the literature, 849 anticipated but never tested, 52 with no prior located — verdicts independently audited by a second model (45-verdict sample; none overturned). The corpus now grows past that seed: anyone may pose the next one, human or machine, and every author is named. Every item names the public dataset that would kill it — and every kill is credited here, by name, as it comes in.
Essays What I think I don’t know · How to photograph a noetome · The 84% · The noetome, measured → · The Most-Wanted 52 →
Why these conjectures matter: charting the noetome — its structure, limits & potential →
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Showing 1–20 of 20 matching conjectures.
When binders needed stiffening material they cannibalised old manuscripts, cutting them into the waste fragments now recovered from bindings. The naive model treats this as physical wear-out — books used until they fell apart — which would produce a smooth aging hazard.…
That illustrated books survive preferentially is doctrine; the sharper, unestablished claim is that survival and integrity anticorrelate through the dealer's knife. Every painting is a separable asset, so the hazard of dismemberment grows with painting count, and the market leaves a dose-response…
A rubbish mound is not a random sample of a town's writing; it is a sample of what the town decided was finished. Roman-Egyptian documents had legal lifetimes — a loan receipt mattered until repayment plus a dispute window, a lease until…
When a household reused an obsolete document's back for a new text, it timestamped its own wastepaper basket: the interval between a dated recto and a dated verso measures how long ordinary people kept dead paper before recycling it. This retention time…
Palm-leaf manuscripts in most of South Asia decayed within a few centuries, so every old text we have is the survivor of repeated recopying — but the interval of that treadmill has only ever been guessed at, never measured. Scribes, however, sometimes…
Histograms of Sanskrit intellectual activity — authors per century, works per century — show a striking swell between roughly 1400 and 1800, often narrated as an early-modern efflorescence. But authors are dated largely through surviving manuscripts, and manuscripts survive on a decay…
Manuscript populations have age pyramids, like human populations, and the pyramid's shape records the demography of the institution that did the copying. Hindu texts in Nepal were reproduced continuously by household paṇḍits and temple scribes into the nineteenth century, which should give…
Two selection pressures squeezed Sanskrit works from opposite ends of the length scale: very long works cost too much to recopy whole, while very short works were absorbed into anthologies and compilations and lost independent circulation. The surviving population of independently transmitted…
Almost no Ethiopian manuscript physically survives from the Zagwe dynasty (c. 1140-1270), although Geʽez book culture demonstrably continued — the same dynasty built the churches of Lalibela. Two histories could produce that blank: ordinary continuous attrition, which thins every century smoothly, or…
In a living liturgy the most important books are handled daily, carried in procession, sweated on, and replaced when worn; the least used sit safely in chests. Use intensity should therefore INVERT survival age: the core service books of the Ethiopian rite…
Sahel manuscripts live on paper in termite country, so books survived by being recopied, not by lasting. This conjecture claims the consequence is a sharp physical horizon: almost no codex in the Timbuktu collections physically predates the mid-sixteenth century even where composition…
The surviving record seems to say Ethiopia wrote early and the Sahel wrote late: Ethiopian parchment books survive from the first millennium, Sahel books barely from before 1600. This conjecture claims much of that famous asymmetry is a substrate artifact: parchment in…
The history of Hebrew books is told as a history of burnings — Paris 1242, confiscation after confiscation — and the natural assumption is that these catastrophes carved visible craters in the surviving population. Set against them is the quiet attrition that…
Offices in Greco-Roman Egypt did not keep files forever: they weeded, and weeded sheets were reused — flipped over for letters and school exercises or sold off in bulk. Every papyrus carrying a dated document on the front and a dated reuse…
Counts of medieval government output lean on surviving original documents, but archives curated by impressiveness: a great sealed privilege on fine parchment was a treasure and a permanent legal weapon, while a small mandate was scrap the day it was obeyed. This…
Finance has one iron rule: diversification protects against local disaster, so the portfolio spread across many markets outlives the one concentrated in a single boom town. Sumerian literature faced exactly this problem — cities burned, and a composition's manuscripts burned with them.…
Manuscript survival is usually told as a lottery of fires, wars, and damp. Join it to price instead: survival to the present rose steeply with a book's original production cost, because expensive books were chained, inventoried, and shelved while cheap ones were…
Manuscript losses are usually narrated as history — this fire, that war, those dissolutions. The conjecture joins survival to radioactive decay: within a given regime of material and custody (papyrus in dry Egypt, papyrus elsewhere, parchment in institutional libraries, paper in private…
Papyrology turned everyday paperwork into demography: from tens of thousands of dated Egyptian documents, it measured how long contracts, receipts, and letters were kept before being discarded, yielding retention curves for ordinary writing. The Dunhuang library cave in western China preserved thousands…
Numismatists read a coin hoard by its age profile: the mix of old and new coins follows a predictable circulation-decay curve, and deviations from the curve flag wars, recoinages, and crises. The Cairo Genizah is, structurally, a paper hoard — centuries of…