An abecedarium — a written-out sequence of an alphabet in its canonical order — is copied and taught from teacher to pupil down the generations, and each retransmission risks small changes to the order: a transposition, an inserted letter, a dropped one.…
One Thousand and One Conjectures
One thousand and one — an impossible number anyway: in the Nights it means more than can be counted. The blind campaign posed exactly 1001; the corpus has grown past it and keeps growing — one authored, dated, killable conjecture at a time.
1,107 posed — and counting · measured against the literature (1001 authoritative verdicts): 95 already answered · 843 anticipated — never tested · 50 no prior located · 15 resolved (6 supported / 4 killed)
Falsifiable conjectures about the pre-print world. The founding thousand and one were generated blind by Fable, a frontier AI, then judged, one dated literature-search each: 95 already answered by the literature, 843 anticipated but never tested, 50 with no prior located — verdicts independently audited by a second model (45-verdict sample; none overturned). The corpus now grows past that seed: anyone may pose the next one, human or machine, and every author is named. Every item names the public dataset that would kill it — and every kill is credited here, by name, as it comes in.
Essays
Why these conjectures matter: charting the noetome — its structure, limits & potential →
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What the tags mean
- Supported — a registered prediction held up in data
- Falsified — a registered prediction was refuted
- Inconclusive — a registered prediction resolved without a clean verdict either way
- Open to kill — untested — no decisive result yet; the site’s invitation, not a verdict
- Already answered — the specific result is already published; the citation is on the item’s page
- Anticipated — the literature anticipates the direction, but this exact test has never been run
- No prior located — a dated search found no prior formulation (in thin fields this measures the literature’s thinness, not originality)
- testable — a quantitative prediction + kill-dataset is registered
- Shepherd-triaged — an authoritative Fable-authored verdict; shown as the pills above and the only tier in the headline numbers
- provisional — model-triaged, shepherd review pending — an Opus-authored first pass, not yet shepherd-confirmed and excluded from every headline figure
- awaiting prior-art check — hunt open — no triage yet; found a prior yourself? open it and weigh in
Showing 1–15 of 15 matching conjectures.
In critical phenomena, systems that differ microscopically collapse onto a single curve after rescaling — the signature of a shared universality class. This conjecture claims textual survival has exactly one such class. Greek works at large, catalogued in Pinakes' 21,500 works, and…
Island biogeography famously finds that the number of species an island supports scales with its area as a power law, S = cA^z, with a characteristically shallow exponent. The claim ports this law to writing: a region is an “island” for scripts,…
Two transmission technologies for Sanskrit ran side by side for centuries: the mnemonic machinery of Vedic recitation — interlocking recitation modes and error-checking permutations built to preserve the Rigveda syllable-perfect — and ordinary manuscript copying, which carried texts like the Mahābhārata. Philologists…
Joins capture-recapture ecology to Greek philology: ecologists estimate how many species they have never seen from the ratio of species observed exactly once to species observed exactly twice, and the same arithmetic applies to books. Each surviving witness to a Greek work…
Joins the statistics of radioactive decay and modern firm-survival analysis to monastic geography: manuscript-producing places, the claim runs, went extinct at a constant hazard, like unstable isotopes. The mechanism is that the deaths of scriptoria were dominated by external shocks — raids,…
Connects frame-tale morphology to accretion dynamics: some frames advertise a number — seven sages telling set tales, ten narrators times ten days — and some advertise only survival-by-storytelling, an open valve. A counted frame makes every insertion a visible breach of contract…
This connects paper-trade standardization with the size distribution of surviving books. Paper left the mill in named full-sheet formats, and books were cut as the full sheet, its half, its quarter, its eighth; a warraq's stock was a ladder, not a continuum.…
This connects the known takeover of the Islamic paper market by European mills with a datable moving boundary in the codicological record. Watermarked Italian paper displaced Oriental laid paper, but not everywhere at once: it should have swept as a front, arriving…
This connects art patronage with textual growth in the Persian epic tradition. Shahnama copies vary by thousands of verses, and the variation is usually treated as scribal drift. The conjecture: interpolation was patron-driven. A royal commission was a completeness market, the fullest…
Whether the empire printed or brushed a monumental compilation was decided by intended copies, never by size — blocks are a fixed cost recouped over impressions, so a work wanted in three copies is cheaper brushed however vast it is. The canons,…
Which Shahnama episodes got painted is normally explained by narrative salience and patron taste. In commercial production the causality should often run the other way: painting spaces were reserved at ruling time, spread across the planned quires so a buyer flipping the…
Al-Sufi's Book of Fixed Stars transmits each constellation in two mirror parities — as seen in the sky and as on the celestial globe — and copies differ in how the pairing survives. Painters copy their exemplar's pictures, so parity should be…
Double-page Qur'an frontispieces are designed as mirror twins but executed in sequence by the same team, and fatigue plus deadline land on whichever page came second. If workshops shared a standard order of operations — something no surviving treatise records — then…
When western Indian manuscript production moved from palm leaf to paper, pages kept palm-leaf proportions and painted vestigial string-hole medallions — that much is known. The unestablished structure is the shedding schedule: vestiges should die in a fixed order, the functional trace…