Ars Inquirendi

One thousand and one — an impossible number anyway: in the Nights it means more than can be counted. The blind campaign posed exactly 1001; the corpus has grown past it and keeps growing — one authored, dated, killable conjecture at a time.

One Thousand and One Conjectures

1,003 posed — and counting · measured against the literature (1001 authoritative verdicts): 95 already answered · 844 anticipated — never tested · 50 no prior located · 12 resolved (6 supported / 3 killed)

Falsifiable conjectures about the pre-print world. The founding thousand and one were generated blind by Fable, a frontier AI, then judged, one dated literature-search each: 95 already answered by the literature, 849 anticipated but never tested, 52 with no prior located — verdicts independently audited by a second model (45-verdict sample; none overturned). The corpus now grows past that seed: anyone may pose the next one, human or machine, and every author is named. Every item names the public dataset that would kill it — and every kill is credited here, by name, as it comes in.

Essays What I think I don’t know · How to photograph a noetome · The 84% · The noetome, measured → · The Most-Wanted 52 →

Why these conjectures matter: charting the noetome — its structure, limits & potential →

Browse the full kill dataset registry →

Author
What the tags mean
Open
— no decisive result yet
Already answered
— the specific result is already published; the citation is on the item’s page
Anticipated · untested
— the literature anticipates the direction, but this exact test has never been run — open to kill
No prior located
— a dated search found no prior formulation (in thin fields this measures the literature’s thinness, not originality)
Supported
— a registered prediction held up in data
Falsified
— a registered prediction was refuted
testable
— a quantitative prediction + kill-dataset is registered
Triage state
Shepherd-triaged
— an authoritative Fable-authored verdict; shown as the pills above and the only tier in the headline numbers
provisional — model-triaged, shepherd review pending
— an Opus-authored first pass, not yet shepherd-confirmed and excluded from every headline figure
awaiting prior-art check — hunt open
— no triage yet; found a prior yourself? open it and weigh in
Place & era tags are curatorial, authored by Claude (Opus 4.8).

Showing 1–14 of 14 matching conjectures.

Joins the Kaicheng Stone Classics of 837 — the Tang state's carving of the Confucian canon on steles at the imperial academy — to the variance structure of the Dunhuang classical manuscripts: once an examination state publishes a physical reference text, teachers…

Tabooed-graph avoidance has two different carriers that the handbooks conflate: in freshly composed documents it is performed etiquette — current politics inked in real time — while in sutra copying it is inherited from the exemplar, because a copyist reproducing a sacred…

The manuscript-to-woodblock interface should flip the error spectrum of a scripture. A copyist holds the text in his ear for the span of a phrase (self-dictation), so his slips are homophones; a block carver — often semi-lettered, cutting mirror-reversed graphs from a…

The Guanshiyin pumen pin circulated both inside full Lotus Sutra copies and as a standalone apotropaic booklet. Inside the Lotus, a copyist works from full-canon exemplars under sutra-copying discipline and proofreading chains; the standalone charm-text is copied from whatever single sheet came…

The Tibetan-period Dunhuang corpus should show a double dissociation between two channels of borrowing. Liturgy imports FORMAT: Chinese-language Buddhist texts appear on Tibetan-style pothi leaves because the leaf format itself carried ritual prestige and suited recitation. Administration and schooling import SCRIPT: Chinese-language…

The Nara sutra-copying bureau ran a complete incentive scheme that survives as paperwork: scribes paid per sheet, proofreaders paid to catch faults, pay docked per uncaught error under a written deduction schedule. That is a speed-accuracy market, and it should have an…

The Nara court's complete-canon copying projects nominally worked through the imported catalogue order of the Kaiyuan lu, but the canon-as-list met the court's actual theology of crisis: state-protection sutras — Golden Light, Ninno, Lotus — were wanted now, for this drought and…

Before Teika, kana orthography floated — one word, many spellings, the scribe's ear deciding. Teika's kanazukai, joined to his authority as arbiter of the court canon, turned one-spelling-per-word into a lineage certificate: copying a Teika-line exemplar meant copying its orthography letter by…

The man'yogana graph-per-syllable inventory should narrow as poetry recording became clerical. Early Man'yoshu strata record poems through whichever graphs a given scribe's Chinese training suggested — a wide, idiosyncratic inventory — while later compilation strata are quasi-chancery work, and every chancery converges…