Dating divination by its odds

Claim (verbatim)

Dating divination by its odds. The two classical ways of casting the I Ching generate hexagrams with different statistics: the older yarrow-stalk procedure is asymmetric — its line-types fall with unequal probabilities, making some changing lines markedly likelier than others — while the later coin method is symmetric between yin and yang. Any corpus of recorded divinations is therefore a sample from whichever probability distribution the diviners were actually using, and the casting method leaves its fingerprint in the line frequencies. The conjecture: early received hexagram records — the divination accounts preserved in the Zuozhuan — should match the asymmetric yarrow-stalk probabilities, and later corpora should drift to the symmetric coin statistics, so that frequency analysis alone yields a statistical date for the change of method. It is chronology by odds: where the texts are silent about procedure, the arithmetic of the castings testifies.

Prediction clause (verbatim)

For the divination records in the Zuozhuan and in dated later corpora, tabulate line-type and changing-line frequencies and score each corpus against the theoretical yarrow-stalk and coin-method distributions by likelihood. Primary clause: the Zuozhuan records fit the asymmetric yarrow probabilities better than the symmetric coin probabilities (likelihood ratio favouring yarrow), and at least one later corpus shows the reverse preference, bracketing a method transition between them. The verdict follows the primary clause.

Kill-dataset (verbatim)

frequency analysis of Zuozhuan vs later corpora.

Novelty / leakage triage

anticipated in the literature — this exact test has never been run

The underlying probability asymmetry (yarrow-stalk ~3:1:7:5-type vs symmetric coin ~1:3:3:1) is documented, including a recent big-data simulation paper, and the Zuozhuan divination episodes are philologically treated; the dating-by-probability-signature join was not located. Feasibility caveat that must survive into any registration: the philological literature treats only ~6 Zuozhuan hexagram-divination cases — the proposed frequency test may be statistically underpowered at the source.

• Zheng & Cao, 'Big Data Analyzing the Asymmetry of 64 Hexagrams Based on the Yarrow-stalk Method' (SSRN) — Method-probability characterization
• Kidder Smith, 'Zhouyi Interpretation from Accounts in the Zuozhuan' — ~6 recorded cases — sample-size problem

Predictions

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