Ars Inquirendi

One Thousand and One Conjectures

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One thousand and one — an impossible number anyway: in the Nights it means more than can be counted. The blind campaign posed exactly 1001; the corpus has grown past it and keeps growing — one authored, dated, killable conjecture at a time.

Two storytellers on a manuscript flying carpet

1,107 posed — and counting · measured against the literature (1001 authoritative verdicts): 95 already answered · 843 anticipated — never tested · 50 no prior located · 15 resolved (6 supported / 4 killed)

Falsifiable conjectures about the pre-print world. The founding thousand and one were generated blind by Fable, a frontier AI, then judged, one dated literature-search each: 95 already answered by the literature, 843 anticipated but never tested, 50 with no prior located — verdicts independently audited by a second model (45-verdict sample; none overturned). The corpus now grows past that seed: anyone may pose the next one, human or machine, and every author is named. Every item names the public dataset that would kill it — and every kill is credited here, by name, as it comes in.

Essays

The noetome, measured → · The Most-Wanted 52 →

Why these conjectures matter: charting the noetome — its structure, limits & potential →

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Subject
Institutions & prosopography 169 Philosophy, theology & the schools 115 Material practice and ritual action 111 Literature & poetics 80 Technical, recipe, and scientific texts 57 Institutions, law & bureaucracy 42 Everyday & documentary writing 40 Music, liturgy & ritual 40 Texts, scribes & transmission 35 Money & economy 31 Art & iconography 30 Medicine, science & the occult 30 Women & textual production 30 Book economics & scribal labour 28 Authors' minds & methods 25 The oral-written interface 25 Works' qualities & composition 25 Theology as a science (sacred doctrine) 24 Engineering, materials & building 21 Networks & trade 19 Time, sky & calendars 9 Lost literary works 8 Water, land & settlement 8 Chance & decision 7 Logistics & operations 7 Dulia (veneration of the saints) 6 Oral-formulaic performance and transmission 6 Lost books 5 Vernacular literature 5 The Inferome 5
Culture & place
Mesopotamia 68 Egypt 48 Levant & Near East 56 Aegean & Greece 83 Rome & Italy 33 Mediterranean 19 Europe 83 Islamic world 97 Steppe & Central Asia 50 South Asia 110 East Asia 73 Southeast Asia 100 Sub-Saharan Africa 86 Americas 48 Oceania & the Pacific 14 Global / method 4 Byzantine 35 Jewish 64 Eastern Christian 82
Era
Bronze Age 24 Iron Age & Antiquity 49 Medieval 202 Early Modern 24 Cross-period 63
Result
Supported 5 Falsified 6 Inconclusive 6 Open to kill — untested 1090
More ways to slice

Specialist axes — method, instrument, provenance and more.

Lens The analytical method or formal apparatus it borrows.
Manuscript and scribal production 347 Channel dissociation 75 Epigraphy and damaged inscriptions 49 Market equilibrium, price, and arbitrage 34 Stemmatics: reconstructing transmission trees from shared error 26 Survival analysis: hazard rates and half-lives 26 The comparative method and natural experiments 24 Information theory: redundancy, error-correction, and compression 22 Rank-size laws and heavy tails 22 Statistical physics: transport, percolation, criticality, and tipping points 19 Capture-recapture and unseen-species estimation 18 Diffusion of innovations and contagion 18 Costly signaling and verification 17 Network topology and centrality 17 Taphonomy and survivorship bias 17 Dialect geography: isoglosses, distance-decay, and seriation 16 Operations research: queueing, inventory, and logistics optimization 14 The molecular clock: constant-rate change as a dating instrument 10 The experience curve: learning by cumulative production 3
Kill dataset The named public dataset that would falsify it. Browse the full kill dataset registry →
Union catalogues 169 Critical apparatus 97 Egyptian papyri & ostraca 85 Published editions 77 Dated colophons 63 Dunhuang & Turfan hoards 59 Archaeological survey 50 Digitized texts 50 Scholastic citations 50 Chant & liturgy 49 Charters & chanceries 49 Epigraphy 49 Cuneiform archives (CDLI) 46 Witness counts (Pinakes) 46 East Asian canons 34 Byzantine book epigrams (DBBE) 33 Prices & wages 33 Astronomical tables 32 Cairo Geniza 32 Mesoamerican codices 32 Islamic manuscript culture 25 Archaeometry 22 Byzantine lead seals 17 Art & iconography 16 Not yet built 15 Fragments & bindings 12 Christian Nubia 11 Numismatics 10 Letter collections 9 Khipus 8 Hadith isnads 6 Romano-British tablets 6 Novgorod birch bark 5 The corpus itself 5 D-PLACE / Seshat 3
Known before? What the literature already knows about the claim.
Already answered 95 Anticipated 901 No prior located 52
Provenance Which blind generation wave posed it — provenance, not topic.
Philosophy, theology & the schools 115 Literature & poetics 80 South Asian text cultures 57 African book cultures 47 Central & Inner Asian texts 43 Institutions, law & bureaucracy 42 Eastern Christian book cultures 40 Everyday & documentary writing 40 Music, liturgy & ritual 40 Southeast Asian text cultures 37 Byzantine book culture 35 Jewish book cultures 35 Texts, scribes & transmission 35 Pre-Columbian American writing 32 Money & economy 31 Art & iconography 30 East Asian text cultures 30 Islamicate book cultures 30 Medicine, science & the occult 30 The cuneiform world 30 Women & textual production 30 Book economics & scribal labour 28 Authors' minds & methods 25 Method, bridges & the corpus itself 25 The oral-written interface 25 Works' qualities & composition 25 Engineering, materials & building 21 Networks & trade 19 Time, sky & calendars 9 Oceanic & Pacific text cultures 8 Water, land & settlement 8 Chance & decision 7 Logistics & operations 7 Navigation & discovery 4 Sound & performance 3 Community-posed 2 Conflict & collapse 2
Author Who posed it — the model, or a human.
Fable 5 1053 Human 1
Claim level Whether the claim is about the world, the surviving record, or the instrument.
Record claim 761 World claim 222 Instrument claim 20
What the tags mean
Result — how it fared once tested
Supported
— a registered prediction held up in data
Falsified
— a registered prediction was refuted
Inconclusive
— a registered prediction resolved without a clean verdict either way
Open to kill — untested
— no decisive result yet; the site’s invitation, not a verdict
Known before? — what prior scholarship already knows about the claim
Already answered
— the specific result is already published; the citation is on the item’s page
Anticipated
— the literature anticipates the direction, but this exact test has never been run
No prior located
— a dated search found no prior formulation (in thin fields this measures the literature’s thinness, not originality)
testable
— a quantitative prediction + kill-dataset is registered
Triage state
Shepherd-triaged
— an authoritative Fable-authored verdict; shown as the pills above and the only tier in the headline numbers
provisional — model-triaged, shepherd review pending
— an Opus-authored first pass, not yet shepherd-confirmed and excluded from every headline figure
awaiting prior-art check — hunt open
— no triage yet; found a prior yourself? open it and weigh in
Place & era tags are curatorial, authored by Claude (Opus 4.8).

Showing 1–6 of 6 matching conjectures.

Bottomry break-even Already answered

Joins actuarial insurance pricing to maritime archaeology. A fourth-century BCE Athenian bottomry loan was repaid only if the ship survived the voyage, so the premium over ordinary land-secured interest is a pure risk price: if lenders broke even, the spread directly encodes…

Money & economy Iron Age & Antiquity Aegean & Greece Greek textual transmissionMediterranean maritime and connectivity sources Market equilibrium, price, and arbitrageSurvival analysis: hazard rates and half-lives Archaeological survey
Aristotle by slogan Already answered

after about 1300 the working Aristotle of the arts faculties was a florilegium of exam-ready tags, not the translations. Oral disputation and examination rewarded fixed memorizable slogans, and once the popular auctoritates handbooks compiled them, the tag-list became the effective text —…

Philosophy, theology & the schools Medieval Europe Greek textual transmissionMedieval Latin institutions and prosopography Channel dissociation Published editionsScholastic citations
The alias stops at the border Already answered

After the condemnation of Evagrius of Pontus (553), many of his Greek works survived only under false names, notably Nilus of Ancyra, while Syriac and Armenian manuscripts went on copying the same works under Evagrius's own name. The claim: pseudepigraphy is jurisdiction-shaped…

Eastern Christian book cultures Early Christian and Syriac transmissionGreek textual transmissionSyriac Christianity Channel dissociation Union cataloguesWitness counts (Pinakes)
Tables travel with the embassy Already answered

In the Palaiologan period, Greek scholars adapted Persian and Islamic astronomical tables — a famous east-to-west transfer. This conjecture says the transfer moved in diplomatic luggage: each Greek adaptation clusters within a generation after a documented Byzantine embassy to or from the…

Byzantine book culture Greek textual transmissionIslamic and Persianate source transmissionTechnical, recipe, and scientific texts Astronomical tablesWitness counts (Pinakes)
Star catalogues age in quanta Already answered

Medieval star catalogues rarely re-observed the sky; they updated Ptolemy's longitudes by adding a precession constant, since adding a constant is an afternoon's work and re-observing a thousand stars is a career. The surprising connection is that the added increments form a…

Medicine, science & the occult Greek textual transmissionTechnical, recipe, and scientific texts Stemmatics: reconstructing transmission trees from shared error Astronomical tables