Ars Inquirendi

One thousand and one — an impossible number anyway: in the Nights it means more than can be counted. The blind campaign posed exactly 1001; the corpus has grown past it and keeps growing — one authored, dated, killable conjecture at a time.

One Thousand and One Conjectures

1,003 posed — and counting · measured against the literature (1001 authoritative verdicts): 95 already answered · 844 anticipated — never tested · 50 no prior located · 12 resolved (6 supported / 3 killed)

Falsifiable conjectures about the pre-print world. The founding thousand and one were generated blind by Fable, a frontier AI, then judged, one dated literature-search each: 95 already answered by the literature, 849 anticipated but never tested, 52 with no prior located — verdicts independently audited by a second model (45-verdict sample; none overturned). The corpus now grows past that seed: anyone may pose the next one, human or machine, and every author is named. Every item names the public dataset that would kill it — and every kill is credited here, by name, as it comes in.

Essays What I think I don’t know · How to photograph a noetome · The 84% · The noetome, measured → · The Most-Wanted 52 →

Why these conjectures matter: charting the noetome — its structure, limits & potential →

Browse the full kill dataset registry →

Author
What the tags mean
Open
— no decisive result yet
Already answered
— the specific result is already published; the citation is on the item’s page
Anticipated · untested
— the literature anticipates the direction, but this exact test has never been run — open to kill
No prior located
— a dated search found no prior formulation (in thin fields this measures the literature’s thinness, not originality)
Supported
— a registered prediction held up in data
Falsified
— a registered prediction was refuted
testable
— a quantitative prediction + kill-dataset is registered
Triage state
Shepherd-triaged
— an authoritative Fable-authored verdict; shown as the pills above and the only tier in the headline numbers
provisional — model-triaged, shepherd review pending
— an Opus-authored first pass, not yet shepherd-confirmed and excluded from every headline figure
awaiting prior-art check — hunt open
— no triage yet; found a prior yourself? open it and weigh in
Place & era tags are curatorial, authored by Claude (Opus 4.8).

Showing 1–17 of 17 matching conjectures.

Scribes routinely closed their work with self-deprecating apologies — “forgive the faults of the unworthy scribe” — and the naive reading treats these as confessions from careless copyists. The claim inverts that: such formulae are costly quality signals, the mark of a…

This joins Mesopotamian glyptic art to the economics of security. A cylinder seal was its holder's signature, and like any signature it invited forgery; the defence was engraving complexity, since an intricate scene costs a forger far more to copy than a…

Joins the economics of luxury counterfeiting to Japanese sword connoisseurship. Counterfeiters allocate effort where brand equity is highest — today's fakes concentrate in the top handbag brands, not the mid-market — because the payoff to a forged label scales with the premium…

This connects the well-known devaluation of the ijaza into a formality with the rhetoric of the document itself. As real audition decayed into blanket and even to-whom-it-may-concern licenses, the certificate lost evidentiary content; the conjecture is that the parchment compensated. Neither the…

This conjecture joins the heresiology of the 1270s condemnations to plain citation counting: the density of authorities in a scholastic article tracks institutional risk, not intellectual difficulty. On topics where a determination might attract censure, such as the eternity of the world…

This conjecture claims scholastic diligence was tactically allocated: when writing against an opponent, a master re-verified the opponent's proof-texts in full copies, because a misquoted enemy loses the debate, while continuing to take his own side's supporting authorities on anthology trust within…