Ars Inquirendi

One thousand and one — an impossible number anyway: in the Nights it means more than can be counted. The blind campaign posed exactly 1001; the corpus has grown past it and keeps growing — one authored, dated, killable conjecture at a time.

One Thousand and One Conjectures

1,003 posed — and counting · measured against the literature (1001 authoritative verdicts): 95 already answered · 844 anticipated — never tested · 50 no prior located · 12 resolved (6 supported / 3 killed)

Falsifiable conjectures about the pre-print world. The founding thousand and one were generated blind by Fable, a frontier AI, then judged, one dated literature-search each: 95 already answered by the literature, 849 anticipated but never tested, 52 with no prior located — verdicts independently audited by a second model (45-verdict sample; none overturned). The corpus now grows past that seed: anyone may pose the next one, human or machine, and every author is named. Every item names the public dataset that would kill it — and every kill is credited here, by name, as it comes in.

Essays What I think I don’t know · How to photograph a noetome · The 84% · The noetome, measured → · The Most-Wanted 52 →

Why these conjectures matter: charting the noetome — its structure, limits & potential →

Browse the full kill dataset registry →

Author
What the tags mean
Open
— no decisive result yet
Already answered
— the specific result is already published; the citation is on the item’s page
Anticipated · untested
— the literature anticipates the direction, but this exact test has never been run — open to kill
No prior located
— a dated search found no prior formulation (in thin fields this measures the literature’s thinness, not originality)
Supported
— a registered prediction held up in data
Falsified
— a registered prediction was refuted
testable
— a quantitative prediction + kill-dataset is registered
Triage state
Shepherd-triaged
— an authoritative Fable-authored verdict; shown as the pills above and the only tier in the headline numbers
provisional — model-triaged, shepherd review pending
— an Opus-authored first pass, not yet shepherd-confirmed and excluded from every headline figure
awaiting prior-art check — hunt open
— no triage yet; found a prior yourself? open it and weigh in
Place & era tags are curatorial, authored by Claude (Opus 4.8).

Showing 1–30 of 30 matching conjectures.

The Primary Standard Sequence on Maya vases is a fixed dedicatory formula fitted onto rims of very different circumferences; if the band was planned like piecework lettering against available length, abbreviation should be hierarchical rather than ad hoc, dropping the same expendable…

That illustrated books survive preferentially is doctrine; the sharper, unestablished claim is that survival and integrity anticorrelate through the dealer's knife. Every painting is a separable asset, so the hazard of dismemberment grows with painting count, and the market leaves a dose-response…

Pattern sheets travelled as outline drawings with colour given verbally — the Göttingen Model Book literally writes out its recipes — while copying from a finished exemplar transmits paint by eye but forces a freehand redraw. Two transmission channels, opposite bandwidths: model-book…

Al-Sufi's Book of Fixed Stars transmits each constellation in two mirror parities — as seen in the sky and as on the celestial globe — and copies differ in how the pairing survives. Painters copy their exemplar's pictures, so parity should be…

Insular interlace obeys strict under-over alternation, and its rare violations are treated as random lapses. The conjecture: the slips are structural — they concentrate where the drawing process broke off, at panel joins, pigment-field boundaries, and day-work seams — so error positions…

Steppe animal-style motifs crossed gold, openwork bronze, felt, wood, and tattooed skin. What a mobile craftsman memorizes is the armature — which limb crosses which, how the coil closes, how many contact points — while proportions are re-fitted to every object. Topology,…

Ornament in stained glass — border types, diaper grounds, grisaille foliage — is studied inside glass scholarship, but glaziers stocked their cartoon chests from painters' books. Ornament families should therefore appear in dated manuscripts before dated glass of the same region, with…

Donor portraiture is one genre under two theologies of presence. Latin donation imagery kept renegotiating scale as lay patronage broadened and purgatorial accounting personalized the stakes; the Byzantine proskynesis format was liturgically frozen. The handbook impression that donors get bigger is not…

Chinese connoisseurship separates traced copies (mo) from freehand copies (lin) by brush quality — a judgement call. But tracing is mechanical transfer and locks absolute dimensions, while freehand copying rescales freely. Catalogue metadata alone should therefore bifurcate attested copy-pairs into a size-locked…

That Japanese handscroll action tends right-to-left is a specialist commonplace; the unestablished claim is the full mechanism test across cultures. If lateral bias comes from the reading technology — the image must hand the eye onward to the next scene — then…

Mixtec screenfold painters worked along red guide-lined boustrophedon registers laid out before painting. If composition ran on a short planning horizon, spacing should compress as the painter approaches each register turn — the same crowding-at-the-end signature papyrologists read in line justification —…

Imitation coinages degrading over copy-generations — Celtic staters from Philip II's gold, sceattas from Roman types, Indian imitations of Kushan issues — are a numismatic classic. The unestablished universal is an order of decay: under illiterate copying, legend legibility collapses into pseudo-letters…

At Dunhuang, painted banners and woodblock prints of the same deities circulated in the same decades. Prints from one matrix are identical trivially; the conjecture is cross-matrix: variance across different woodblocks of one deity should still be far below painted variance, because…